[slacker00]

I've been throwing money on the Patriots all week, and the line keeps moving towards Indy. Does everyone have a hard-on for the sparkly 7-0 perfection?

I'm actually a big Indy fan and watch every game I can. I've burned all kinds of ulcers watching the Patriots stomp the Colts over the last few years. Manning is 0-7 against the Pats in his career. Why is he suddenly favored? Don't get me wrong. I'll gladly kiss all of my money goodbye if the Colts pull this out, but this line makes no sense to me, and I'm an eternal Colts optimist.

First of all, throw the records out. If the Patriots had played the Colts schedule and vice-versa, the Pats would be 7-0 and the Colts would be 4-3. So far this year, I see these teams as equal (me being a Colts optimist). You might say the Patriots are literally hamstrung by injuries, but you could have said that last year. Who is wearing the Super Bowl rings? hmmm? I'll admit that losing Rodney Harrison seemed like it would really cripple the Pats, but they seem to keep plugging guys in there and they keep rolling. I don't explain it, they just do. The Patriots are not a team who you can just roll into their home and beat, it takes something special. The Colts definitely have a shot, but coming into the home of the champs and be almost 2-1 favorites on the moneyline, give me a friggin break!

Even bigger is that this game could easily determine a tiebreaker between these two teams! Look at the schedules, the Pats have finally played through the "schedule from hell" and could easily run the table after this game, being 13-3 if they manage to pull off the "Upset over the Colts". Look at the Colts schedule, playing powder-puffs early just leaves the meat towards the end of the season. I still believe in the Colts, but finishing 6-2 on the backside would be optimistic.
Again, putting the Colts at 13-3 and giving the tiebreaker to the Pats. Toss in a loss each putting them both at 12-4 is also realistic. This game is huge for tiebreaker chances. Bellichek knows this. More importantly, Bellichek knows how to beat the Colts!

Am I just a paranoid Colts fan? What are the rational reasons that the Colts are such huge favorites coming into the home of the champs like this?

[onlòóker]

This game can be the passing of the torch in the AFC. We will see.

[Senator7]

Pats are banged up and Colts are on a mission. I don't think Indy will go undefeated, but they'll have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs and a trip to the Super Bowl at least. I don't see any team in the NFC beating them either. Onlooker said it best. Monday night will be a passing of the torch in the AFC.

Senator 7

[maritime]

I agree that the quick & easy pick here seems to be the undefeated Colts against a banged up Pats team and possibly the "passing of the torch." But wasn't it supposed to work out that way last season, or the time before that, or maybe it was the time before that......

Granted the weather probably won't be as much of a factor for this game. But It's hard to go with a QB that is 0-7 in Foxboro.

Here's another aspect regarding the Colts that catches my eye. Their defense is averaging 11 points given up per game. This number has to go up. Consider that last year's lowest total was the Steelers at 16 points per game. The year before that it was the Pats at 15 points per game. All I'm trying to say is that I don't think this Colts defense is any better than those 2 defenses and even if the Colts defense was to end the season with a similar points per game average, they are due to give up a significant amount of points, and probably pretty soon.

My plan: The line is already at 4 at most of the books I've seen. I plan to wait until just before game time & hopefully get the Pats at +4.5 or more after the public bets the heck out of the Colts. Also, I think the over in this game (48 at Bodog/Cris) has a lot of value given the weaker than usual Pats defense going against an offense that had 2 weeks to prepare plus the fact the Colts defense is due to give up some points.
Anyway, good luck/plays to all you guys this weekend.

[wadadli]

In my opinion, the Colts should be a 7-point favorite. Did you watch the patriots versus the bills? The pats barely won. Did you see what San Diego did to the pats in New England? The colts are coming off of a bye week and this colts team is nothing like the one that went 0 - 7 versus the pats. The colts now have a top-notched defense and is more balanced on offense. Moreover, I will take Manning, Harrison, and James versus inexperienced corners and a banged up defense every day of the week.

[pags11]

really no clue on this one...other than it looks like the Patriots are starting to play a little better...

[SBR_John]

Plus Indy has had 2 weeks to prepare. I like the Pats here although this will be a nibble and nothing more. You have to respect Indy.

[JoshW]

I am just excited about the game. I really enjoy big matchups like this, should be hell of a game. And since NEGL is at home, I don't think we will see a blowout by Indy.

[Razz]

Just when I thought the squarest MNF bet of the year was Pitt -13 last week, this one comes along. Not that the Patriots will necessarily win the game (I certainly think they will), but if nothing else, the Colts defense will be exposed as a fraud that has looked good against terrible opponents.

[kalmikrazy]

The Pats always rise to the occasion. And this is that occasion this year. Last week was nice and heartwarming with Bruschi returning but I think they are over that and the Pats D is due for a big game (not that last week the d didnt play well). And the Indy O is not the force it was last year. Pats win this game but Indy wins in Detroit in Feb 06.

[slacker00]

Originally Posted by Razz

Just when I thought the squarest MNF bet of the year was Pitt -13 last week, this one comes along. Not that the Patriots will necessarily win the game (I certainly think they will), but if nothing else, the Colts defense will be exposed as a fraud that has looked good against terrible opponents.

I think you're right, Razz. The Indy defense is going to get torched. I expect this one to be one of those 35-38 games where Vinitari kicks one with time running out. Too bad the Colts can't keep playing the Texans and Titans every week and padding the stats.

To you guys saying this is the "Passing of the torch" game. I friggin hope you're right. The Colts are realistically a 50-50 shot to go into Foxboro and win this one, but the lines making the Colts almost a 2-1 favorite are insane. If the Colts lose, there's no "coasting to home field advantage". They've got 5 tough games: @Cincy, @Jax, @Seattle, Pitt, SD. This Patriots-Colts game is really worth two games in one, then, factoring in the tiebreaker implications plus the psychological aspects. Anyone who thinks the Colts are going to walk in and lay a whipping on the Patriots is an idiot. If the Colts win on Monday, they'll have earned it 5 times over. The Patriots are not going to give this one away.

[OldeTymePlaya]

I like the Colts

[bigboydan]

ABC found has a good game to show on MNF for a change. this game will be a fun one to watch, thats for sure. not sure exactly if or, who i will be playing in this game as of yet. but if i do play it, it will be small.

[Trouble Maker]

great post slack

[Illusion]

Tough game to choose a side. I will wait and see where the public money goes.

[Brick Tamland]

Slacker
Good point about the schedules. I agree... Ind wouldnt be undefeated.

Im w/ Maritime. I want the +4.5. The guys at the plant are buying the Colts at -4 now so I will have a supersized play on this.Anyone know how long the -3 opener heald up? I never seen it.

[pags11]

I also just read that the Colts are the number one defense in the NFL...that's pretty impressive...

[mad]

At 0-7, i'd have to say that Indy's time is a comin' sooner rather than later. If ever there was a time that the Pats were vulnerable, i think it is at the moment. That being said this game will be a doozy and will more than likely be close.

It may be the "square" play but Indy to cover for me - but not with a huge amount of confidence though.

[maritime]

Originally Posted by pags11

I also just read that the Colts are the number one defense in the NFL...that's pretty impressive...

Colts may have the "number one defense" (based only on points per game) but this is misleading. Check out the offensive juggernauts they have played so far...

[maritime]

More food for thought: Combined win/loss records of the teams the Colts have played thus far = 19 wins & 38 losses for a lousy .333 win percentage. Combined win/loss records for Pats opponents thus far = 35 wins & 22 losses (.614)....a tad bit better. Granted it's not the Colts fault for having to play the schedule they're given, but this is their first true test.

[Razz]

Originally Posted by pags11

I also just read that the Colts are the number one defense in the NFL...that's pretty impressive...

I was certainly impressed when they beat Rice University 38-20 a couple weeks ago.

[Brick Tamland]

Here comes that 41/2s!! I may actually sweat during this game after today. Ill be chasin like the roadrunnr

[InSpades]

My head tells me to take the Colts. But the only play IMO is the Pats getting 4.5. Fading the public on Monday night is usually a good bet.

IS

[dacanesrule74]

I think the obvious is choice is Indi. That is what I am going with as well. However that scares me that it seems that straight forward. NE is banged up everywhere and Dillon isn't playing worth a damn. The only two things going for the Pats is they are playing outside and this is mental to Manning.

[HAPPY BOY]

Indy wins by double pts take it to the bank. Look for the pats to be stiffled on offense with the new and improved colts "d". Trends are trends but as much as I hate saying it the colts are the best team in football and they are on a mission to get the pats monkey off there backs. colts 24 pats 13

[Razz]

I think smart money is going to start pouring in on the Patriots +4.5, so if anyone wants to take them, there is no reason to try to wait for +5. I've been wrong before, but I think this line will close at 3 or 3.5.

[onlòóker]

Passing on this one, going to stick with the NBA tonight.

[maritime]

Colts defense gets exposed tonight. Record of Colts opponents this season is combined 19-38. Take the Pats +4.5 while you can get it.

[maritime]

Originally Posted by maritime

Colts defense gets exposed tonight. Record of Colts opponents this season is combined 19-38. Take the Pats +4.5 while you can get it.

not!!

[Senator7]

Originally Posted by Senator7

Pats are banged up and Colts are on a mission. I don't think Indy will go undefeated, but they'll have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs and a trip to the Super Bowl at least. I don't see any team in the NFC beating them either. Onlooker said it best. Monday night will be a passing of the torch in the AFC.

I'm not the kind of guy to say I told you so, but...

[slacker00]

Originally Posted by maritime

not!!

This game went about as bad as it could have went for NE. I'm still not real inspired by the Colts defense. But when your offense is that good, who needs defense?

[mad]

Slacker, it's simple; the Colts are a good team playing real well and the Pats are not. Their are reasons for both (injuries - perhaps), but if their was ever a time that the Pats were vulnerable, it was today. That was my original thinking but convinced myself to go the other way - turns out we both silly fella's.

[HAPPY BOY]

[quote=HAPPY BOY]Indy wins by double pts take it to the bank.


Damn its good being right, especially when it comes with 6 units!

[JoshW]

Originally Posted by lakerfan

I am just excited about the game. I really enjoy big matchups like this, should be hell of a game. And since NEGL is at home, I don't think we will see a blowout by Indy.

Called this one dead on.