[Illusion]

When it comes to capping the NBA I usually fade the public. I look at the lines and ask myself, who does Joe Public really like tonight? I then take my list of games and start doing a schedule breakdown. Example: let's say Denver is playing Utah at home and is a 8 point favorite. I look at the two teams next opponents. Let's say Utah's next opponent is San Antionio on the road. Chances are they lose to the Spurs therefor they should probably cover against Denver. This is a general example, but remember always breakdown the schedule when capping games.

It's also a good idea to fade teams like Miami, Detroit, Indiana, San Antonio, Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix. The general public loves these teams and will always lay the wood no matter who they are playing.

[bigboydan]

theres alot more to capping than just fading the public i feel. theres stats,trends,scheduals,hot & cold teams,ect,ect,ect. you have to factor everything in when capping any game, because you have to look for any and every advantage you can to find a winner.

[Max Levine]

Well I don't know NBA but I'll suggest something about capping.

I don't think you can cap every single team unless you do it full time and you tape all games. I think there are some teams you're more comfortable with and follow religiously. So when you read the news, you realize that you actually know better.

Easier to figure out the type of game those 2 teams will have when you know their strategy against that specific team.

Max

[bookie]

I don't think there are public teams in the NBA because Joe Sixpack doesn't bet it as he will the NFL and ESPN weekday CFB. When you think a good team is out of form for one reason or another they might provide a little extra value, but NBA betting isn't square vs. sharp it's semi-sharps and middlers versus bookmakers.

[onlooker]

Schedule breakdown plays a big part in capping. Then you have to add in all the other stuff like trends, hot/cold streaks, injuries, good/bad road team, etc etc.

Just have to find the best value on any given night, thats the bottom line.

[pags11]

in all my years, I've found flipping a coin to be the best aid in handicapping the NBA...

[Illusion]

??? Fade teams I don't get it, period
:+firework

Alright then, keep betting the Heat and Spurs and report back to me. See if not fading those teams makes you some coin. Hell, bet the moneylines to be safe.

[bigboydan]

in all my years, I've found flipping a coin to be the best aid in handicapping the NBA...

your using the tout approch on picking NBA's i see.

[pags11]

dan, I just think the NBA's a crap shoot...you like that Brandon Lang approach?...lol...

[Montreal514]

Wouldn't this theoretically work if you bet on every single game and total and just bet against the public? I mean after all how do sportsbooks stay in business?

[rm18]

Books can stay in business with people hitting 50%, and also you have to be careful if you are betting against the public after they find out that people like Baron Davis and Tracy McGrady are out.

Also the line will move more on proffesional action so even though the line goes down, the neccessarily the public, at pinnacle the most of the money is coming in on the Knicks, you could fade those players, but I don't know if people who bet large amounts of money right after the line comes out are the ones you want to fade.

If you are going to fade the Spurs and Heat you can do it on the road, but if you do it at home you will win 50% at best. I played them both and lost today but it was because of other factors of playing against Dallas at home most of the time and the Heat being underrated without O'neal.