[thewhiteguy]

[infamousbacardi]

3-4 yesterday for a profit of $50.

Thread totals are now:

Record: 8-13
Bankroll: -$55

April 21st Plays:

MLB:

Red Sox - 1.5 *BOTH GAMES OF DOUBLEHEADER* (2.40 & 2.50) $100 to win $140 GM1 and $100 to win $150 GM2
Brewers -1.5 (2.60) $100 to win $160
Giants -1.5 (2.55) $100 to win $155

NHL:

Blues -1.5 (2.95) $100 to win $195
Lightning -1.5 (2.85) $100 to win $185
Wild -1.5 (2.40) $100 to win $140

Bad day all around pretty much here. NHL was just bad, no excuses there. Though even with this bad run still only 1 decent day away from being back up in the black. On to today:

Updated total:

Record: 10-18
Bankroll: -$240

April 22nd Plays:

MLB:

Reds -1.5 (2.30) $100 to win $130
Twins -1.5 (2.45) $100 to win $145
Rangers/Angels OVER 8.5 (1.95) $105 to win $100


NBA:

Clippers/Grizzlies OVER 181.5 (1.91) $110 to win $100


NHL:

Jets -1.5 (3.45) $100 to win $245
Red Wings -1.5 (3.05) $100 to win $205
Ducks/Oilers UNDER 5.5 (1.75) $133.33 to win $100

[matthew919]

Rangers/Angels OVER 8.5 (1.95) $105 to win $100

Where are you betting? I'm on the other side of this one, but if you haven't already bet it, you can get a much better price.

[infamousbacardi]

Where are you betting? I'm on the other side of this one, but if you haven't already bet it, you can get a much better price.

Thanks Matthew...I'm usually at Bookmaker. What price do you see??

[matthew919]

Thanks Matthew...I'm usually at Bookmaker. What price do you see??

5Dimes has it at +105 right now...

[infamousbacardi]

5Dimes has it at +105 right now...

Makes sense. 5 Dimes usually has slightly better lines. I just really like the mobile interface at Bookmaker compared to 5 Dimes so I usually stick with them. I already bet it at Bookmaker.

I'd like to wish you luck on your UNDER play in that game, but I hope it goes OVER. :-) I see good value there for some runs.

[TheMoneyShot]

IB... have you been drinking your own stash?

[infamousbacardi]

IB... have you been drinking your own stash?

TMS, it was supposed to be for a rainy day, but I've given in and gone rogue.

[easyliving]

so your risking 35% of your BR each night trying to bet +money lines. 1 bad week and your Bankroll will be drained. I suggest lowering your unit size down from 100 or having a higher bankroll.

[infamousbacardi]

so your risking 35% of your BR each night trying to bet +money lines. 1 bad week and your Bankroll will be drained. I suggest lowering your unit size down from 100 or having a higher bankroll.

Thanks for the post EL. You are certainly right under normal circumstances that it is too high a risk per bet. However, this is an experiment I've toyed with in the past (though I've never played it out in full) and I'm curious if I actually play it out what happens. If I get down $1,000 doing this I'll stop, otherwise I'll play it out over the 2 months.

[uvarunthetable]

Out of curiosity why do you seem to mainly bet run lines and puck lines? With as much as you are betting a night, seems like you are just adding even more variance into the mix

[infamousbacardi]

Out of curiosity why do you seem to mainly bet run lines and puck lines? With as much as you are betting a night, seems like you are just adding even more variance into the mix

You are spot on uvarun. In the past when I've tried to bet RLs and PLs I mix in some standard basketball spread or MLB/NHL total picks. It just hasn't shaken out that way over the last couple days since I started the thread.

I'm making a solid effort to incorporate my 2-3 picks a day now that include a standard spread to do exactly that and bring in a little less variance.

I think in the end if you keep taking RLs and PLs you will end up giving any potential profit away by teams that win by 1 only. Already that has happened quite a bit in the picks I've made in this thread.

[infamousbacardi]

Bad day all around pretty much here. NHL was just bad, no excuses there. Though even with this bad run still only 1 decent day away from being back up in the black. On to today:

Updated total:

Record: 10-18
Bankroll: -$240

April 22nd Plays:

MLB:

Reds -1.5 (2.30) $100 to win $130
Twins -1.5 (2.45) $100 to win $145
Rangers/Angels OVER 8.5 (1.95) $105 to win $100


NBA:

Clippers/Grizzlies OVER 181.5 (1.91) $110 to win $100


NHL:

Jets -1.5 (3.45) $100 to win $245
Red Wings -1.5 (3.05) $100 to win $205
Ducks/Oilers UNDER 5.5 (1.75) $133.33 to win $100

Twins game has been PPD. Replacing that game with:

MLB:

Mariners -1.5 (2.00) $100 to win $100

[thewhiteguy]

[infamousbacardi]

Bad day all around pretty much here. NHL was just bad, no excuses there. Though even with this bad run still only 1 decent day away from being back up in the black. On to today:

Updated total:

Record: 10-18
Bankroll: -$240

April 22nd Plays:

MLB:

Reds -1.5 (2.30) $100 to win $130
Mariners -1.5 (2.00) $100 to win $100
Rangers/Angels OVER 8.5 (1.95) $105 to win $100


NBA:

Clippers/Grizzlies OVER 181.5 (1.91) $110 to win $100


NHL:

Jets -1.5 (3.45) $100 to win $245
Red Wings -1.5 (3.05) $100 to win $205
Ducks/Oilers UNDER 5.5 (1.75) $133.33 to win $100

Looks like adding some spread picks did the trick to right the ship. 5-2 night for a pretty big profit. Even the 2 that lost still won on the ML, and Jets outshout Buffalo something like 37-20 and only won by the 1 goal. Enroth stood on his head last night.

Either way, on to today:

Updated totals...

Record: 15-20
Bankroll: +$165

April 23rd Picks:

MLB:

Pirates/Phillies OVER 7 (1.91) $110 to win $100
Mariners -1.5 (2.25) $100 to win $125
Brewers -1.5 (2.45) $100 to win $145
Twins GM 1 -1.5 (2.25) $100 to win $125
Yankees/Rays OVER 7 (1.91) $110 to win $100

NHL:

Blues -1.5 (2.20) $100 to win $120
Rangers -1.5 (2.25) $100 to win $125

[fitguy67]

-1.5 handicap is hi-variance play...

-1 is a lower variance way to achieve similar yield...

there's even an extra 2%+ if u are willing to "roll your own" -1 RLs (as a combination of the -1.5 RL and the ML) versus taking the "off the shelf" versions that some books (including dimey) offer

the "heartbreak factor" is also improved (settling for a push, when ur team wins by 1 run is a hell of a lot less frustrating than having to eat a loss)

chek this out, esp post #8 http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...1rl-wager.html

[chilidog]

[senseionline]

ouch

[infamousbacardi]

-1.5 handicap is hi-variance play...

-1 is a lower variance way to achieve similar yield...

there's even an extra 2%+ if u are willing to "roll your own" -1 RLs (as a combination of the -1.5 RL and the ML) versus taking the "off the shelf" versions that some books (including dimey) offer

the "heartbreak factor" is also improved (settling for a push, when ur team wins by 1 run is a hell of a lot less frustrating than having to eat a loss)

chek this out, esp post #8 http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...1rl-wager.html

Good post fitguy. This is also a concept I've toyed with a little in the past when I've gone after 1.5 lines. Taking ML AND the 1.5 line.

Just got bit by the ML bug again w/ the Twins today!

Maybe I'll look into that in the future more after this thread is done. Good post.

[infamousbacardi]

Record: 15-20
Bankroll: +$165

April 23rd Picks:

MLB:

Pirates/Phillies OVER 7 (1.91) $110 to win $100
Mariners -1.5 (2.25) $100 to win $125
Brewers -1.5 (2.45) $100 to win $145
Twins GM 1 -1.5 (2.25) $100 to win $125
Yankees/Rays OVER 7 (1.91) $110 to win $100

NHL:

Blues -1.5 (2.20) $100 to win $120
Rangers -1.5 (2.25) $100 to win $125

Lost $145 yesterday. Kind of a weird day that started w/ getting the Twins ML heartbreaker. Moving on to today:

Record: 17-24-1
Bankroll: +$20

April 24th Picks:

MLB:

Reds -1.5 (2.35) $100 to win $135
Nationals -1.5 (2.50) $100 to win $150
Red Sox - 1.5 (2.30) $100 to win $130
Mets/Dodgers OVER 6.5 (1.85) $118 to win $100
Brewers/Paders OVER 7.5 (2.00) $100 to win $100

NBA:

Rockets/Thunder OVER 213 (1.95) $105 to win $100
Lakers/Spurs OVER 187 (1.91) $110 to win $100

[infamousbacardi]

Lost $145 yesterday. Kind of a weird day that started w/ getting the Twins ML heartbreaker. Moving on to today:

Record: 17-24-1
Bankroll: +$20

April 24th Picks:

MLB:

Reds -1.5 (2.35) $100 to win $135
Nationals -1.5 (2.50) $100 to win $150
Red Sox - 1.5 (2.30) $100 to win $130
Mets/Dodgers OVER 6.5 (1.85) $118 to win $100
Brewers/Paders OVER 7.5 (2.00) $100 to win $100

NBA:

Rockets/Thunder OVER 213 (1.95) $105 to win $100
Lakers/Spurs OVER 187 (1.91) $110 to win $100

The ML jinx strikes again. $-305 yesterday. No question a future RL/PL strategy would need to include some sort of hedge system.

That being said, I feel good about these plays tonight, so I'm not including any NBA totals/sides or MLB totals.

Totals:

Record: 19-29-1
Bankroll: -$285

MLB:
Angels -1.5 (2.30) $100 to win $130
Red Sox -1.5 (1.75) $135 to win $100
Yankees -1.5 (2.45) $100 to win $145

NHL:
Capitals -1.5 (3.50) $100 to win $250
Rangers -1.5 (2.85) $100 to win $185
Penguins -1.5 (3.35) $100 to win $235
Bruins -1.5 (2.35) $100 to win $135

[thewhiteguy]