[jjgold]

When on top bet more

Anyone that does this is called a total top in booking terms.

[DrSlamm]

explain

[jjgold]

All I am saying is when your winning bet more units, its the only way to make nice scores and beat your man. I see it so many times when we win we bet less and go conservative to try and stay up and when we are down we bet more.

[hawk 5]

damn true JJ

[LLXC]

I just stick to my original plan...

[ourbet]

So are YOU doing this jj? Personally, I agree with LLXC; just sticking to a plan.

[imgv94]

Seems like this is true..

When I'm winning I get conservative sometimes..

[Justin7]

I don't know, JJ. What if you win 5 in a row, then lose 5 in a row? Total top players get buried, and still have to make it up Monday night and sweat it out. I think it's much safer to double up after a loss, but go back to your normal unit after a win. Sure I don't win big, but it's just like an ATM.

[punchmaster]

Originally Posted by jjgold

All I am saying is when your winning bet more units, its the only way to make nice scores and beat your man. I see it so many times when we win we bet less and go conservative to try and stay up and when we are down we bet more.

JJ- isn't the simple, logical way to go, working off a bankroll and you stick to betting a certain % of that bankroll, so the great thing is as you win and grow your bankroll, your automatically betting mo money! Patiently , methodically watching a bankroll grow is the only way to go....

[Illusion]

I would stick with original units. The only way to win is with smart money management.

[Dark Horse]

Conventional money management is based on defense first (not going broke in a losing streak), and offense second (maximizing profit). For a long time I thought that this was the way to go. But then I realized that this type of money management is 100% based on streaks (the bet size is based on not going broke in a losing streak). If a gambler can solve the mystery of streaks he can take a completely different and much more effective approach. I realize that most people believe streaks can only be seen in the rearview mirror. I disagree. And I intend to prove it.

[Checkerboard]

Looking forward to any insights you come up with from your research DH . . .

[jjgold]

Dark Horse is on to something, most players are streaky . I have had so many 11-5, 12-6, 22-11, 9-2 type runs and then after that the opposite occurs . So the key is to know when your going good or bad and make adjustments.

Also the law of percentages come into play, when you are lots og games above the 50% mark it is a matter of time you come back down to earth. So again if you can figure out when you topped or bottomed and bet accordingly your on your way to beating this game.

[punchmaster]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

"the mystery of streaks" .

I wouldn't worry too much about streaks- each future sporting event is independent of the one before it or past event. Either your a good capper that wins more often than not or your with the rest. I think I'm in a different arena than most because I'm only doing money lines, often looking for value in dogs or plus #'s. I saw value in a +200 line, and a +220 line and bet the same money on both and split them to finish with a decent gain. You split 2 games at -105, and you lose a little- that sucks and must be how many players get grinded down.

[tacomax]

From the title of the thread, I was sure that jjgold was going to be trying to solicit sex with another guy.

[jjgold]

If anyone can develop a charting program on wins and loses like starts and see trends it could work.

[HAPPY BOY]

taco just one time one time post a pick. Even if you loose. Do u bet on anything I.E. soccer, crickett, do you follow american football, have you ever bet on american football.
Do you have kids, wife. Whats your hobbies, do you like fishing? Are you a scotch man. Have your ever smoked pot? done cocaine. Do you read, if so what books. Are you gonna bet on any bowl games? Who's your favorite superhero? Does milk make you fart? I.E r u lactose intollerant? Case and point, we don't talk anymore like we used to. I miss the old chats. I find you off in and a distant. This christmas season lets get to know who the real Taco is. Yes we all love the witty sour puss with the quick comebacks and the one line zingers, but I bet inside the man theres a nice guy who just needs a friend.

Sorry I highjacked your thread JJ but I just had to ask tese questions!

[tacomax]

I'm a f\*g and I don't post my picks. I bet on all the above. NFL is dire to watch, but I bet on it. No kids, no wife. Like live music, art and warm weather. Don't like scotch. Like pot, never got on with cocaine. I read - currently reading Freakonomics. Favourite superhero is Spiderman. Milk causes me no issues. And don't keep asking to be my "special friend" - I've told you time and time again that I don't swing that way.

[Jay Edgar]

(Back on topic, only to veer for a slightly tangential trip down Memory Lane) --

I have never done it, but it might not be the worst thing in the world to consider Oscar's Grind for money management discipline in sports betting.

I would use Oscar's Grind as casino-hopping younger fella, and I would see most of Las Vegas one $5 BJ table at at time, always seeming to earn back the plane fare at least. This was without any counting -- doing no more than playing strict Basic Strategy so as to stay above a 49% expectation.

Oscar's Grind (and this may be a modified Oscar's Grind, not completely faithful to the original) has you beginning with a 1-unit bet and adding a unit to the bet only after a win -- never after a loss. Once you are at +1 unit for the series, you declare victory and start a new series. Conversely once you are at -10 units (or -8 or -12, you can pick the number) you declare defeat and start a new series.

If your action is choppy and you do not experience inordinate numbers of long streaks (either W or L), then this is profitable.

You are never adding to the bet after a loss, and you have a fixed goal and a fixed bet amount every time.

You are most often adding a unit to the bet immediately after a win that breaks a 2-3 hand/game losing streak: not a bad time to add a unit, psychologically speaking.

Now all you would need to do is discipline yourself to play one game at a time, and try to make picks with some value and a +50% expectation.

At BJ I allowed myself enough rope to bounce around all the way to -10 units, maybe having to play 3 or even 4 units at some times, and I got back to +1 unit over 90% of the time -- which seems a slightly better performance than you might expect. If you could pick 51-52% winners, instead of having 49.5% winners dealt to you, you should get back there far more than 90% of the time.

Just a totally random thought. I play too many damn games simultaneously to run any kind of sample test on it.

[Dark Horse]

Money management is a function of streaks. It is because losing streaks are real that money management theory is conservative. And so I ask. Why focus so much attention on money management, when streaks are at the root of the problem? Solve streaks and you have solved gambling.

The answer is simple, but it is not easy. lol

[HAPPY BOY]

Originally Posted by tacomax

I'm a f\*g and I don't post my picks. I bet on all the above. NFL is dire to watch, but I bet on it. No kids, no wife. Like live music, art and warm weather. Don't like scotch. Like pot, never got on with cocaine. I read - currently reading Freakonomics. Favourite superhero is Spiderman. Milk causes me no issues. And don't keep asking to be my "special friend" - I've told you time and time again that I don't swing that way.

dude your a funny mothrfvcker LOL *** spidey is my favorite also

[Jay Edgar]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

The answer is simple, but it is not easy. lol

The answer is as simple as "pick 54-55% winners instead of 49-50% winners." Many many fewer losing streaks at the higher level.

If however, like most mortals who try hard at it, you can probably pick 51% give or take a tick, then I for one can see why some people believe that money management is the truth, the whole truth, etc. . . Did you get the most out of your wins (which may come in bunches) and have your losses (ditto) take the least out of you? Do you even know? Fair questions.

If you're human, the answer is probably "no."

A friend of mine says "money management is another way to say act like a robot." For better or worse, he is likely onto something there (which he has willfully chosen to disregard, by the way, perhaps as an affirmation of his humanity.)

That friend wasn't DH, but it could have been?

[Dark Horse]

After years of old school money management, I'm now adjusting my bet size depending on the streak I'm in. High during winning streak, low during losing streak. But only after seriously studying that subject against my own bet history and that of others.

As to percentages. I hit 58-63% for years, but wasn't making enough bets to truly appreciate streaks. Streaks lose their sharp edges when you play only a few hundred bets. Only after increasing my bets to a few thousand per year, and lowering my percentage in the process (we're going for units, not percentages), did I start to see the impact of streaks. At first I thought I'd lost my edge. Why was I suddenly losing so many games in a row? The answer is that I had to. Because otherwise I would have never seriously investigated streaks. When you produce only winners, you never think twice about it, but when the tide turns, you start looking for answers.

I now feel that my entire gambling 'career' focused on this one point. It was all just preparation.

I'm probably wrong about that. No doubt there are many more portals beyond this one. But at this point the inscription above the portal clearly reads 'S-T-R-E-A-K-S'. And so I stare into the void in utter amazement. Never too far away from the next big discovery, never too far away from insanity. Just the way I like it.


(Just for the record. I'm overdramatizing this. Just doing some research into streaks. That's all.)

[pavyracer]

Originally Posted by tacomax

I'm a f\*g and I don't post my picks. I bet on all the above. NFL is dire to watch, but I bet on it. No kids, no wife. Like live music, art and warm weather. Don't like scotch. Like pot, never got on with cocaine. I read - currently reading Freakonomics. Favourite superhero is Spiderman. Milk causes me no issues. And don't keep asking to be my "special friend" - I've told you time and time again that I don't swing that way.

[lakerboy]

paver are you drinking tonite?

[tacomax]

Originally Posted by pavyracer

Good bump, pavy. The shit I typed 3 years ago still makes me laugh today. IS THAT WRONG?

[jellobiafra]

Originally Posted by tacomax

Good bump, pavy. The shit I typed 3 years ago still makes me laugh today. IS THAT WRONG?

Not when it's hilarious.

[reno cool]

It's a good idea for those playing with neg expectancy. Increase volatility and give yourself a chance to win.
Was Justin serious with that post? I can't tell.

[jjgold]

God find

Deceiving title

[onthewhat]

[pavyracer]

Originally Posted by tacomax

Good bump, pavy. The shit I typed 3 years ago still makes me laugh today. IS THAT WRONG?

It made me laugh hard so I had to bump it. That was awesome taco!

[Bread]

[Dexter]

Originally Posted by jjgold

All I am saying is when your winning bet more units, its the only way to make nice scores and beat your man. I see it so many times when we win we bet less and go conservative to try and stay up and when we are down we bet more.

100% AGREE with this jjgold. anyone who has seen me post over the past year has saw these sentiments by me several times.

i am not a b/s artist who claims to hit 60% of my bets. ive done MUCH better the past few years by following this method. when i was younger (34 now, gambling since 16) i would get my ass kicked by chasing all the time.

i now bet week to week, and reset my roll each monday. when im down, i bet less - when im up i play with "house money" and swing for the fences.

ie....if im up 10 units going into sunday night (i'm usually a 2-3 unit per game guy) i will throw 7-8 units on a play if i like it. heck, i dont have to love the play. when you're hot, you have to keep rolling the dice.

great thread

[Dexter]

Originally Posted by Justin7

I don't know, JJ. What if you win 5 in a row, then lose 5 in a row? Total top players get buried, and still have to make it up Monday night and sweat it out. I think it's much safer to double up after a loss, but go back to your normal unit after a win. Sure I don't win big, but it's just like an ATM.

i disagree. if you practice proper money mgmt techniques, this will actually mitigate getting buried.

i used to get buried before i was a "top player"

you dont look to "make it up" in 1 night. that's called chasing. accept your losses like a man, or you will wind up in Gamblers Anonymous

[manny24]

Originally Posted by tacomax

From the title of the thread, I was sure that jjgold was going to be trying to solicit sex with another guy.

thread would have started, "looking for a power bottom."