Quote:
Originally Posted by babytyger
Don't ever pay for picks because most of them are FRAUD. Any good handicapper does not need to sell pick because they can make more money by betting themselves.
Don't be another victim to their SCAM!
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I disagree with this statement. The biggest enemy any gambler has is variance. No matter what the game is. Selling picks is a way to smooth out variance. A good handicapper would both bet their own picks and sell them. It is just good business practice in terms of smoothing out variance.
Think about it in terms of the extra effort it would take to sell picks vs the return on this effort if the handicapper is good. He is handicapping the games anyway. He is studying the lines and the line moves anyway. He hires a company to put up and run the website. All the handicapper has to do is type his picks into a data entry screen which then an automated program updates his website. Or the automated program sends out emails. So, for an extra hour a day, the handicapper brings in extra earnings that help smooth out variance. Why would a handicapper not do this?
So many "experts" on this forum make ridiculous claims that all "touts" are crooks, that all touts sell you losing picks and then get paid by the books. That is ridiculous, it is just as hard to pick the losing side as it is to pick the winning side. Sure, some touts are shady, but certainly not all of them are.
LT Profits on this forum sells his picks. I have paid for them a few times. Would you call LT a crook? One of SBR's big advertisers hosts the picks. Just go to the sbrforum home page and you will find the site. I'm not endorsing LT, I'm just saying that there are honest handicappers out there selling picks. (I like LT by the way).
In terms of a handicapper having a blistering hot record and then you buy the picks and they turn ice cold. This is normal. It happens in the stock market all the time. A stock is going up up up, then I buy it and it crashes. There is a good reason for this. By the time JQ Public notices the stock is going up so much the move is over.
I have often thought that handicappers probably go through the same thing. The public only notices them when they are on fire, but no one can maintain a redhot record forever, so when the public starts following the handicapper he cools off.
I know someone that has a handicapper site. He has some customers who buy for the season and other customers who buy by the week, or by the day. He tells me all the time that the customers who buy by the week or by the day invariably get in when he is hitting a losing streak. Then they leave after sending hate mail, then he gets hot again but they weren't playing the picks that week, then they see the record of the hot streak, then they buy a week's worth of picks again....etc, etc. I have seen this happen because I know some of his short term customers.
If you are going to try a new pick service, I would recommend keeping the bets small at first, but you have to be in for the long haul. I try out new pick services all the time. I bet their picks small for a few weeks and see what happens. I don't care so much if they win or lose as whether or not their picks make sense. Sometimes handicappers just have bad luck. But I have tried out pick services where the picks just made absolutely no sense. Or where the pick service just flat out lied to me. I remember one service that I gave my phone number to. The dude called me and said "we went 8-0 in the early games, we are telling everyone to bet team X in this late game HEAVY". I was already on this game on the other side and the pick they made just made absolutely no sense. So, I asked "why do you like this team"? The answer that I was given was very vague. That team got blown away. The guy called me the next day and I said "seems funny that yesterday you went 8-1 and the only pick you lost was the one you tried to sell me". I told this dude that I would try them out for a few weeks if I could pay them a % of the winnings AFTER the game was scored, but they had to give me all their picks BEFORE the games started, there could be no more of this "we are 150-0 today and we have some late night picks for you" bullshit. I never heard from them again. LOL
Anyway, for anyone to make a blanket statement "never use touts" is stupid. Find good, honest ones and use them. Plus do your own picks. Plus find good posters at forums like TheRX, SBR, etc, and MAYBE, just MAYBE with all those sources of sound information you might break even. LOL
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