[HAPPY BOY]

If saints cover tonight I win 500.00 from BTP, would it make sense to put something on Dallas. I have a 100.00 free play at one of my books.

[dave11486]

I like Dallas so yes...

[Mudcat]

To hedge or not to hedge. That is the question.

And an age-old question it is.

The answer for you depends on many factors. Do you have a strong angle on the game? Is it significant money to you?

If you want to place some Dallas action, the line has moved a fair bit - and not in the direction you would want. You'd have to pay -132 to buy back on Dallas -6.5 right now (Pinnacle).

If you laid $285 you'd be guaranteed $215 profit regardless of the outcome of the game.

So your choice is place $500 on a coinflip (I see this game as a coinflip anyway) or take a sure $215. Or you could do a partial hedge. In any case, with the line moving as it has, $500 on a coinflip is the better value play in the long run.

Good luck whatever you decide.

[Ganchrow]

If saints cover tonight I win 500.00 from BTP, would it make sense to put something on Dallas. I have a 100.00 free play at one of my books.

While hedging some or all of your risk on tonight's game (which is actually only $300 (minus expected roll cost) in that you've already locked up the $200 prize) certainly could make sense based on your own risk preferences (even taking into account the adverse line movement), it would be foolish to do so using your freeplay (assuming you had other (i.e., non-freeplay) funds you could use).

For a brief discussion of why this is so see posts 20-22 of this thread.

Given that Dallas -6½ is currently offered at -132 at Pinnacle, hedfing by using this freeplay you'd be coverting at a rather dismal rate of 37.88%. Save your freeplay for a underdog (or if you lacked the funds with which to hedge such a lopsided bet, a 3-team parlay).

[Aces]

Hedge it Happy Boy Not 500 dollars worth you have to factor in the 500 from BTP has a roll. But Hedge it and go to bed a winner.

[Mudcat]

While hedging some or all of your risk on tonight's game (which is actually only $300 (minus expected roll cost) in that you've already locked up the $200 prize) . . .

This is a hugely great point. I don't know why but I was assuming/responding as if the Saints were your Best Bet.

Always listen to Ganchrow.