[jjgold]

Scumbag scalpers and bonus scammers are gone

[bigboydan]

It might cut down on it, but it won't stop it JJ.

[jjgold]

Danny hard to scalp when there are only 10 solid books left, rest will be bought out

[bigboydan]

Your right about that coach, but til that happens. I still see it happening.

[Sam Odom]

Scumbag scalpers...

What is wrong with a scalper ?

[jjgold]

Insecure people, afraid to bet, not gamblers, they drain books dry

[bigboydan]

Insecure people, afraid to bet, not gamblers, they drain books dry

scalping or no scalping coach, gamblers also try to drain books dry.

I don't have a problem with scalping at all. If the books are going to leave themselves wide open for bettors to do this, I say take advantage of it if you wish too.

[Sam Odom]

Insecure people, afraid to bet, not gamblers, they drain books dry

A book hangs their own # and set their own limit per bet. If someone takes the book up on their offer then how is that bad?

[Yoshi]

What is wrong with a scalper ?

JJ hates the idea of peeps making some money, cause he has to blow old guys in his basement to get some cash for his 0-16 streaks?

[Sam Odom]

I do agree w/JJ on this :

Scalping aint as easy as it used to be altho $$$ can still be made just with Wsex, Matchbook & Pinny but not near as easy.

[SBR_John]

I think I finally agree with JJ on something. But not for the same reason.

Scalping has gotten MUCH harder and the number of books has increased. You old timers might remember you could scalp the New York Stock Exchange with the Pacific 30 years ago but that dried up as technology improved.

The same is happening with the books and following on air is a prime example. In the future, its the scalpers that will be manipulated and scalped if they are not very careful.

[Sam Odom]

I got into online sports scalping late. I missed the 20% re-up days at 20 books. But life goes on

[onlooker]

I dont have a problem with scalping, if you can secure up a sure profit, so be it. Thats what we are all doing this for, to make money.

But I do agree with it is going to get tougher to do.

[pags11]

definitely will be tougher...guys will just have to be smart about what books they play with...

[imgv94]

Nothing wrong with scalping in general but if that is all you do it is pretty obvious you have no skill in picking winners.. I am not speaking about all scaplers but a few I know do it cause they have no ability at all to pick winners. So they nickel and dime things. I can think of one person on here who is a perfect example...

[jjgold]

Why scalping wont work is simple

You will not be able to get large amount sof money to books anymorew which is critical for scalping

Sometimes I think I am posting with minor leaguers

[slacker00]

Scalpers can't be hurting books nearly as much as good handicappers, can they? If there's a scalp, and I can't tell which side is the weak line, I'll take both sides for a guaranteed profit. Anyone who says they won't is lying or stupid. But, the best handicappers that see a scalp will be able to figure out which line is weak and just play the weak line for a much bigger long-term profit. This cuts into the books' bottom line much more than a pure scalping player.

[jjgold]

Slacker you are correct in a way, scalping adds up to chump change for the amount of time these guys put in.

Slacker the majority of scalpers are also scammers using different names to get bonuses. All they do is scalp out to recieve free money. This is 100% true.

[Korchnoi]

I definitely agree with the observation that the legislation will tend to drive out the amateurs and leave only the most serious players. While I don't know how big a deal that will be for the profitability of sportsbooks, I do know that this could absolutely devistate online poker. Online poker exists for the fish. Once they dry up, the pros will simply stop playing. A good player realizes when he's outclassed and wont continue to loose money to better players.

[Yoshi]

Since most scalpers use Pinny, if there is a weak line it is usually on the "other book".
But Pinny lines change a lot before game time - if you are fast enough to grab a scalp there, it doesnt mean the other book necessarily had a weak line.

Most scalpers hurt noone, and if they do the book needs better linesmen. And sometimes i actually find it fun to look for scalps, much better than playing some stupid casino game or something like that anyway.

[slacker00]

Slacker the majority of scalpers are also scammers using different names to get bonuses. All they do is scalp out to recieve free money. This is 100% true.

If scammers are already inventing identities, etc, what stops them from scamming still? Won't they just create an identity that the books will accept, ie, an international identity?

Since most scalpers use Pinny, if there is a weak line it is usually on the "other book"...

I disagree. I did a small study this summer on MLB lines and there was no such correlation. I had suspected the same as you, at first. (I was trying to develop a system based on such scalps. eg, if there was a scalp available with Pinny, just bet the other side without the scalp. Turns out Pinny is "wrong" just as much as the other books.)

But Pinny lines change a lot before game time - if you are fast enough to grab a scalp there, it doesnt mean the other book necessarily had a weak line.

A weak line is when one book has +102 on one side, and another book has +102 on the other side. It's a guaranteed 1% arb. One of the books has got a weak line, it's just not always easy to tell.

If you are taking leads, then that's a different kind of scalp which requires handicapping ability. That's not what JJGOLD is talking about. He is talking about scalpers who take only instant scalps which require no risk in taking leads or other handicapping ability.

[tacomax]

I disagree. I did a small study this summer on MLB lines and there was no such correlation. I had suspected the same as you, at first. (I was trying to develop a system based on such scalps. eg, if there was a scalp available with Pinny, just bet the other side without the scalp. Turns out Pinny is "wrong" just as much as the other books.)

I tend to find that Pinnacle react much quicker than your average book, hence the fact that you can match Pinnacle with a line at another book which is, say, 5 minutes late in adjusting their prices. And that's on quite a large study.

A weak line is when one book has +102 on one side, and another book has +102 on the other side. It's a guaranteed 1% arb. One of the books has got a weak line, it's just not always easy to tell.

It's simple to tell - just look at the lines at other books or, even easier than that, look at SBR Odds. A glance at the other market prices makes it obvious which book the the off-line is at.

[imgv94]

Is it just me or does it seem like the Pinny side of the arb/scalp is the one that usually loses..

[isetcap]

Is it just me or does it seem like the Pinny side of the arb/scalp is the one that usually loses..

That's why they're the best, my friend. Pinnacle is very good at incentivizing the losing side of a bet.

[rm18]

Is it just me or does it seem like the Pinny side of the arb/scalp is the one that usually loses..

yep, although today I actually went 2-0 at pinnacle on these scalps with West Virginia 1st half and UConn 2nd half

[Sam Odom]

I've read on the forums for years about various 'systems' which took what Pinny did or didnt do compared to other Books. They all started with the idea Pinny's numbers were magical but ended with 50/50 results.

[sammyb]

What is wrong with you. If I scalp a book to make a few bucks then all smarts to me. The fact that you dont do it shows how many brain cells you have left in that hudge head of yours
Keep picking those losers numnuts Its because of betters like you that we can scalp
Thanks for your money

[jjgold]

I have always looked own on scalpers, they sunk aces gold

[Yoshi]

JJ gets paid to post this shit or something, dont take this guy serious lol. Its all show. Prolly nothing he writes about himself is true.

[Lucas]

I like JJ posts.
But crusade against scalpers and others those creatures at the stock market was found irrational in the 19th century - and this is not difference. That is misunderstanding to the market. Do you really think that pinnacle would have offered so nice low vigs without speculants?
Bookies, handicappers, scalpers and squares have their own place in this whole bussiness.

[slacker00]

I tend to find that Pinnacle react much quicker than your average book, hence the fact that you can match Pinnacle with a line at another book which is, say, 5 minutes late in adjusting their prices. And that's on quite a large study.

Chasing line moves without further information is exactly what JJGOLD is talking about. These are the scammers. But line moves in themselves only go so far as to indicate true line strength. Chasing line moves has more to do with technical savvy and technology than anything.

Personally, I just don't have the hardware available to do it. I'm sure JJGOLD doesn't either. Maybe that's why he's jealous of the scammers. JJGOLD is still cutting the lines out from his newspaper!

It's simple to tell - just look at the lines at other books or, even easier than that, look at SBR Odds. A glance at the other market prices makes it obvious which book the the off-line is at.

You'll have to give some examples. Pick out the next one you see live and post it. Sometimes it's obvious and sometimes it isn't. If you just wait around for the obvious ones, you might be waiting a long time.

[tennis28]

Slacker, I'd love to know what the sample size of your data is on pinny vs. other books. Somethinig tells me it is too small. You also need to consider that pinny is not able to beat every sport more than other books, so it should look at all lines, across all sports, including halfs, quarters, etc. In my experience, pinny is right more often than not, but again that it not a very large sample.

On another note, it seems almost intuitively obvious that pinny be right more often than not. Since they shade their lines they end up with a lot of one sided action. If they have MIA -115/+105, no one is taking MIA at pinny since they are available at -110 at other shops. This combined with their low juice means they wouldn't be in business if they weren't right 52% of the time.

[slacker00]

Slacker, I'd love to know what the sample size of your data is on pinny vs. other books. Somethinig tells me it is too small.

I ran a study this summer analyzing MLB ML arbs where Pinny was one leg of the arb. I had a few hundred data points over the course of a few months, but try as I might, I could find no correlation whatsoever. If you have a study of your own, I'll check your data if you want some help. My study may have been too narrow, only taking MLB MLs, but I designed the study narrowly intentionally to rule out as many extraneous variables as possible.

You also need to consider that pinny is not able to beat every sport more than other books, so it should look at all lines, across all sports, including halfs, quarters, etc. In my experience, pinny is right more often than not, but again that it not a very large sample.

???

On another note, it seems almost intuitively obvious that pinny be right more often than not.

Yes. They are certainly winning their fair share, I've never claimed otherwise. But so are a lot of other books. At least the ones that manage to stay in business.

Since they shade their lines they end up with a lot of one sided action. If they have MIA -115/+105, no one is taking MIA at pinny since they are available at -110 at other shops.

Pinny knows what they are doing. I wouldn't worry about any of these behind the scenes details. Don't believe that other books don't worry about these same issues.

This combined with their low juice means they wouldn't be in business if they weren't right 52% of the time.

Charging -104 on sides, they only have to be right 49% of the time.