[flyingillini]

[SBR Lou]

Can't believe there aren't 5 threads on this already, fukin shock of the year right here, had to look up tennis scores to even realize he got beat

Looks like it's Roger's time to finish out the grand slam

http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-han...ench-open.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-han...ench-open.html

[flyingillini]

Risked 5000 today?

Anyway nice 25 dollar pick of Soderling

I like action

[Crash]

who cares Tennis sucks!!!

[tsn101]

who cares Tennis sucks!!!

Quality post. If you don't like it post somewhere else.

[yisman]

No name? Someone doesn't follow tennis.

[j0hnnyv]

i had a thread on this at 10am. there was atleast 10 threads before this one pal

[j0hnnyv]

who cares Tennis sucks!!!

may be the worst post at sbr.

[j0hnnyv]

yeah its huge and very shocking. watch soderling will lose in straights next

[j0hnnyv]

lol. ya 5dimes is real solid tennis book. i use matchbook now, every match ive bet this tournament which is 2-3 a day ive had the best number across the board including pinny.

[EaglesPhan36]

It's the biggest tennis upset that most of us will live to see. The situation. The surface and the players dictate that. Soderling as some said isn't a no name, but certainly not the guy anyone would have given more than a dartboard throw's chance to do what he did today.

I watched part of the replay on NBC and someone said it in another thread, it was kind of the perfect storm. Nadal didn't play anywhere near his best and Soderling got away with playing high risk, big shot tennis. He had 61 winners I think in the match. Only way to beat Rafa at RG, shorten the rallies and hope you paint some shots into the right spots on the court. Soderling will have a tough time coming back from this win to beat someone like Davydenko who just played a similar style player in Verdasco who most would rate having a better all-around game than Soderling. Soderling is +176. Davydenko -186 at Pinnacle.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Everybody who beats Nadal loses their next match in the same tournament - it's like a curse. I think it happened 8 times in a row now.

[yisman]

Ranked 25th in the world is basically a no name in tennis, I think the odds were like 30-1 or somethin, clearly not too many people were unloading on this "star"

Didn't say he was a star. Just saying he's not a "no name". A no name would be an unranked player or someone ranked like 300.

Soderling is a good player and the odds were great. No idea why more people weren't on him.

I also watched part of the replay. I would've watched more had NBC broadcasted it live. Stupid tape delay.

[EaglesPhan36]

Soderling was still a dart board toss at those odds to me. You can say whatever you want about the dude, but his clay form is nothing to write home about and if you're gonna tell me a guy who lost 6-1, 6-0 to Nadal just about a month ago was a solid play, I'll call BS on that all day.


I give props for getting it right, but there was nothing that said SODERLING IS GOING TO WIN other than hoping the big price would come through.

[yisman]

The line was a gift. You give me +3900 on Soderling and I'll take it every day of the week, no matter the opponent or the surface.

The chalk Nadal was laying was way out of control.

All I needed was to believe that Soderling had a better than 2.5% chance and I had that easily.

Upsets happen frequently in tennis, which is why betting tennis is as simple as just finding the right underdogs and avoiding heavy chalk.

[Rich Boy]

I bet someone lost their entire bankroll on this play. tough beat...

[The General]

Most definitely many gamblers lost big laying that price on Nadal. I have took my beatings in the past. Hopefully we learn and get better from such mistakes. I think my 1st Big lesson was the ML on Lennox Lewis...

2001
Apr. 21 -- Hasim Rahman, Johannesburg, South Africa, KO by 5
(Lost WBC and IBF heavyweight title)

[Rich Boy]

This is nothing compared to this beat, USC 40 point favorite loses outright at home

5dimes had the opening ML at +10000/-30000

http://www.wagerline.com/Handicappin...&eventID=24147

[yisman]

Maybe put 25 bucks on this for lottery money bc he might've had a 3% chance rather than a 2.5% but hard to call this a "gift" except in hindsight

I call it a gift because in my mind, the chances of Soderling winning were well over 2.5%. Obviously, few agreed with me, but I felt he had at least a 10% chance of pulling off the upset, and I was counting on a competitive match, win or lose.

I rarely put a full unit on huge ML plays, but I did this time.

I've had so many bad beats on value plays, and this one coming through makes it so much sweeter. I believe it's the first +1000 or better I've hit since I started posting tennis picks on SBR.

[twister]

I bet someone lost their entire bankroll on this play. tough beat...

A student I know laid £1000 to win £80, telling me it would pay for his drinks on a night out. "Free money".

I guess he won't be coming out for a while now.

[Rich Boy]

Laying tons of money on huge favorites like this is tough. Because even if you do find value in some plays (which I doubt is possible) it only takes 1 huge upset and months (if not years) of progress is destroyed...

Even if you do manage to profit, this type of betting is very demoralizing.

Twister, I feel bad for your buddy, hope hes doing ok.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

The chalk Nadal was laying was way out of control.

It does look silly, but.....

Soderling massive slam choker (previously!!)

Nadal 4 Roland Garros in a row, never lost two sets in a match

105/108 clay record 2006+ before that match, one down to injury (JCF in Rome08), two in his exhausted period at the end of the clay masters, and vs Federer (07/09).

This season he came in as also the Wimbledon and Aus Open champion.



With that record, you could argue the odds were about right. Still, I never bet that low though, it makes a right mess of the profit graph when they fail (and keeping that ticking over really helps keep your betting head on straight imo).