[icsky3]

Okay, all we ever hear from the "sharper" people here is that we cannot hit over 55% over long period of time and if we do we are good. Now I had an idea.... why not let one of my friends make picks every day in baseball. He has no knowledge of sports betting, live movements, or anything of that nature. He is just a fan of baseball and knows what is going on in the world of sports. Now, since he will do NO handicapping of any kind and he has no skills in betting on sports..... is it possible for him to hit the 55% mark??

What I'm saying is, if he actually hits what most squares would (35%-45% or even worse) couldn't you make a HUGE amount of money just fading every pick?? I mean sticking to it and just fade fade fade. There is no way in hell this guy is going to have a + in winning % and I think that goes with a lot of people out there. If we can't do it and we spend hours and hours capping then why not fade someone who doesn't know shit about the betting world ........
I'm hitting 56% in my last 55 picks (I know, not many picks) and that is VERY good for me......I spend time on this ... he doesn't

Back to my question...Could it work?

[SCRAGGS]

Yes it could work, fade brandon lang and your rich

[Nicky Santoro]

nobody can hit 35-45%.. every gambler that just bets based on opinions and is not a pro, will end up hitting very very very close to 50%, no matter what.. that's the way it always goes..

so anyone that will go 50% over a lifetime will go broke also because of the vig...

[Nicky Santoro]

over 100,000 bets with no edge in any lines..

you will hit exactly 50%
your mom will hit exactly 50%
your grandmother will hit exactly 50%
if you throw darts at the matchups, you will hit exactly 50%
if you make your dog pop balloons and let him pick, you will hit exactly 50%
if you get the most knowledgeable guy who knows every stat of every team and player (vegasdave) he will hit exactly 50%.

in 1995, i worked in an office for 5 months. there were 4 girls and 16 nfl fanatics guys... every week, except for 4 weeks, a girl won the pool.. and the girls based their picks on which city or team nicknames they liked the most..

no matter who picks the games, even if they know sports, they will hit exactly 50% over a lifetime.

that you can take to the bank.. I don't care how much you know or don't know.. you will hit 50%

don't ever forget that..

[sofos]

Winning 35% or 40% is extremely unlikely, just like winning 60% or 65%. The bookies know their job and the lines they put out are generally pretty good. The way to win, I am told, is to find and bet the few times where for whatever reason their lines are off.

[icsky3]

Thanks Nicky.

[Chi_archie]

well if you were doing this with baseball.... it wouldn't be about % he might hit well over 55% and still be down money because if he has no idea of betting or lines.... he would just "pick" every huge favorite... yanks at home with Sabathia, Royals with Greinke ect. so the fade him you'd be playing some heavy dogs against some great pitchers

[Nicky Santoro]

Originally Posted by Chi_archie

well if you were doing this with baseball.... it wouldn't be about % he might hit well over 55% and still be down money because if he has no idea of betting or lines.... he would just "pick" every huge favorite... yanks at home with Sabathia, Royals with Greinke ect. so the fade him you'd be playing some heavy dogs against some great pitchers

but then he'd have to pick 73% just to break even.. if he takes all the big favs. winning 73% with big favs loses just as much as hitting 50% with regular spreads.

[icsky3]

What I'm saying is betting the board. Everyday. You would get a mix of dogs and favs... but from Nicky's earlier post it makes sense that he would hit right around 50% so this idea doesn't seem to be profitable.