[Ganchrow]

There are people out there who seem to think that merely by taking a 20% bonus on their deposit at a -110 line set book with a 5x deposit and bonus rollover, they can expect to profit in the long run simply by running through their rollovers as quickly as possible.

Unfortunately, however, this is not the case.

Playing at a -110 line set book, the house edge is 4.55%.

If you deposit $100 and the book pays a 20% bonus you receive an additional $20.

If the rollover is 5x the initial deposit and bonus (at some books, such as Pinnacle, the rollover only applies to the initial deposit and not to the bonus), then you need to put in play 5 x ( $100 + $20 ) = $600 before you can withdraw the bonus (and at some books, such as Cascade, also the initial deposit).

If you bet $600 at a house edge of 4.55%, then you expect to lose $27.27. Because the house paid you a $20 bonus, this means your net loss is $7.27 or 7.27% of your initial deposit.

So a 20% bonus with a 5x rollover is not a profitable situation for those attepting to purely "bonus whore". But where is the breakeven point?

The following chart shows the bonus amount in the first column and the maxmimum rollover for pure "bonus whore" profitability at -110 books. This means that if the rollover is less than the number in the second column, then pure "bonus whoring" at that book can be expected to be profitable.

Bonus	Max Rollover
5%	1.05
10%	2.00
15%	2.87
20%	3.67
25%	4.40
30%	5.08
35%	5.70
40%	6.29
45%	6.83
50%	7.33
55%	7.81
60%	8.25
65%	8.67
70%	9.06
75%	9.43
80%	9.78
85%	10.11
90%	10.42
95%	10.72
100%	11.00

Some other things to consider:

• If you plan on wagering anyway, you may as well make a deposit at a bonus paying book. This is provided of course that you are already comfortable with its SBR rating.
• Playing only the rollover and withdrawing at a 20%/5x -110 book is equivalent to playing at a line set of about -102.5 with no bonus. If you can be profitable at a -102.5 line set, then go ahead and play as many 20%/5x books as you can.
• The figures above are for books offering a -110 line set. If you play at books where the house advantage is lower than 4.55%, or if you can find scalps, middles, or any other value bets with a lower house advantage, then you may have a profitable situation even for higher rollovers. As a rule, for profitability the following inequality must hold:
  

                             %bonus
  Expected % loss < -------------------------
                     (1 + %bonus) * rollover

  For example, if you can run through your entire rollover at a 20%/5x book with a leg of a scalp or middle with less than a 3.33% expected loss per side then you have a profitable bonus whoring opportunity.
• The above only strictly holds for a bettor placing small bets relative to his deposit+bonus. If the player wrere to increase his bet size he'd also increase his expected value (as his probability of going broke at the bonus book would increase, thereby his increasing his probability of never having to complete his rollover).

[AK]

here is the problem with your equation.

bonus whore scalpers like myself do not scalp opposite ways at -110

we find a line at 2 books that have something like this.

Houston ML +140 at book A
Cardinal ML -140 at Book B

You will find hedge bets all the time without the bonus.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by AK

here is the problem with your equation.

...

There's no problem with any equation. You simply misread my post.

[jay88]

It all depends on your betting trends... Bonuses might be profitable for certain kind of players and reduce juice might be profitable for other players. In gambling there is no equation or system that works. I can assure you that.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by jay88

It all depends on your betting trends... Bonuses might be profitable for certain kind of players and reduce juice might be profitable for other players. In gambling there is no equation or system that works. I can assure you that.

So what's the error in my reasoning?

[AK]

Only risk you ever have being a bonus whore scalper is not getting paid by a bad book and thats it.

Alot of money to be made being a bonuswhore. This is a fact

[jay88]

Originally Posted by ganchrow

So what's the error in my reasoning?

None as long as it works for you...

[AK]

I agree with your chart there but people that bonus whore do not lay -110 both ways!

You find the best lines for both teams and scalp them. You usually break even on the scalp but you make the bonus.

Deposit 1 dime into 2 books
1200 in each book with 20% cash bonus

bet 1200 to win 1200=2400
bet 1200 to win 1200 and lose =0

you make 400.00 doing nothing. It's really easy not to mention the great loyalty programs that are out there!

The main ingredients for being a successful whore is.. Money,Time, Knowledge of what books to use,Try for middles,Maximize the bonus offers, Cashing out daily and re-uping as soon as your coin gets in your is in your hands,always in action, Its very easy to make good $$ being a bonus whore scalper! The main key is stop gambling!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!

[Ganchrow]

AK: The chart refers to pure bonus whoring. This refers to the act of taking down a bonus, and then simply betting through the rollover. Betting the entire rollover at an unhandicapped naked -110 at a 30% bonus with 5x rollover, one can still expect to be slightly profitable.

The equation mentioned later is an inequality giving the maximum expected % loss on one's bets for profitability. The expected loss can refer to a middle, a scalp, or simply a value bet.

[jay88]

Originally Posted by AK

The main key is stop gambling!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!

:+friendly :laughing: :images(5)

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by jay88

None as long as it works for you...

It doesn't just work for me ... it works for everyone who resides in a universe where mathematics continues to work.

[AK]

ganchro,

I would like you to make a graph including people who get a equal vig on opposite sides of the game and also a graph which shows a 3-5% vig on opposite of the games please.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by AK

I would like you to make a graph including people who get a equal vig on opposite sides of the game and also a graph which shows a 3-5% vig on opposite of the games please.

You'll have to better articulate what you're asking for. I'm not following you in the slighest.

[pags11]

have never heard the term, but I don't see anything wrong with using bonuses the right way to reduce the juice...

[slacker00]

Bonus whoring is about the same as clipping coupons or doing mail-in rebates. I'd say it closely resembles mail-in rebates in that you get your bonus after you jump through a variety of hurdles, and even then you are at the mercy of the company you are submitting the rebate/bonus. Just yesterday I was on the phone with an online casino, which I will not name. It was over a $50 bonus which I felt I was owed. Long story short, they told me that I could not claim two bonuses within the course of a rolling two week period. Wonderful. That's the type of b.s. you'll have to face sometimes. But, like rebates, I get about 95% of them in the end. I really hate doing rebates anymore. It is getting close with bonuses also. I just hate messing with it. Then again, I have a fairly recent foul taste in my mouth.

So, you just have to figure in the bonus into the overall picture. If you are already going with a good book that you absolutely love, screw some bonus from someone else. It's just a pain, most of the time. Same goes for rebates. I bought a computer almost two years ago, and got about half dozen rebates on it to get a awesome price. I bought another new one this last spring, and I could have maybe saved 50 bucks with another battery of rebates, but I said "screw it", I'm not going through all of that hassle for 50 bucks.

[AK]