Does anyone know where I can find out the percentages of home teams that cover say 4pts, 6pts, etc (NFL, NCAA) and other stats like that?? Either in a book or on the net? Also where do you recommend I find where the public is betting moneylines (I use wagerline for spreads and unders)? Thanks for the help.
Looking for advantages versus individual spreads is a quick way to lose money.
Dogs are smaller now than in the past, which adds error to your analysis. Most spreads are close to 50% each way, unless the sample size is smaller. The exception is dogs of +7.5 or higher until the last 4 years, when lines tightened up.