I heard the winds and possible rain is in the mix over the next 2 days. What matchups look sharp for tomorrow?
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08-09-12 11:51 PM #1
Will scores run red at Kiawah Island?
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08-10-12 12:17 AM #2
This course will play a hell of alot harder the next 3 rounds. If you can just watch the weather conditions as closely as possible then bet accordingly. I would look for the golfers who benefitted from early starts yesterday, most of the top 20 now started earlier in the day, to struggle with their much later starts Friday. Alot of great golfers, many in the top 10, went off after 1PM today: world #1 Donald, Simpson, Watson, Kuchar, Els, Michelson, Mahan, and Fowler...none of these guys are under par, all are 6 strokes or more off the lead.
This is a big trend that can be exploited especially if the weather starts out decent and gradually worsens. Even the very mild winds that came on thursday had a dramtic effect on raising scores. The wind usually is more pronounced, and makes this a completely different, much longer course to play (it is the longest in US Open history, the wind greatly amplifies the length). I will be watching golf network at sunrise to get a precise feel for the course and expected weather. Gl!Points Awarded:
Balco10 gave MeatWad 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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08-10-12 12:24 AM #3
Fri 8/10 207 Padraig Harrington (2nd Rnd) -½ -105 -125 8:30AM 208 Phil Mickelson (2nd Rnd) +½ -115 +105
On Harrington -125 for a buck....
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08-10-12 12:49 AM #4
Fri 8/10 261 Ernie Els (2nd Rnd) -125 8:10AM 262 Jim Furyk (2nd Rnd) -105
Els -125 for a buck
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08-10-12 05:22 AM #5
I like both of your picks alot. Els looked sharp and steady even with a late tee time yesterday. He will get the huge added benefit of starting 4h 10 min before Furyk which should mean alot as they expect the wind and storms to intensify as the day progresses. The advantage of starting early was very evident yesterday and should be more pronounced today as the weather worsens compared to yesterday's conditions.
Mickelson is a bit of a conundrum. He was all over the course yesterday yet somehow shot a respectable score due to saves and short game. His game definitely looks off, and in the dark I would almost always assume a super strong and steady Harrington would always have solid value against an American fan favorite like Phil.
If Phil struggles today I expect him to pay a higher price as the wind will push his ball further off the fairways than where he was ending up yesterday. Hard to expect him to keep making miraculous saves for par, I would bet against that continuing although he looked good with the new putter. His arthritic condition may be flaring up as well, as he doesn't seem the same on his long balls the past few months. Great Picks!
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08-10-12 05:33 AM #6
I also bet a handful overs on many guys starting late. All scores should be higher today as the overall weather is expected to be worse, and the weather is supposed to get worse as the day goes. The O/U's are higher today at the books, but I still feel they do not compensate enough for the inclimate weather.
This is considered among the toughest courses in the US, it is the longest ever for a PGA, and today we will see why. Yesterday the scores only relfected a .5 stroke advantage to the early starting players, but more top twenty players started later so the .5 advantaged is scewed downard. Today all scores will go up dramatically and the difference between early and late starters should rise to 1 stroke+. Unless the expected weather does a shocking 180 turn, a 72 score will be very impressive and much more rare today. Gl!Last edited by MeatWad; 08-10-12 at 05:37 AM.
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08-10-12 05:50 AM #7
Another important consideration for betting the overs is the tougher pin placements today. Although the greens are fairly straightforward/easy, especially for a majors course, and are in excellent condition, the tougher pin placements (hole 2 even tougher today, and 12 is less exploitable now) today will compound the windier conditions.
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08-10-12 06:21 AM #8
Standing water on the course, especially in the traps should help add strokes to the scores. Mickelson was living in the sand yesterday, should be much harder to get away with today. I bet more than 66% of the overs available, even the early starters as the wind is kicking now more than it has this week, and 0 unders. Not as sure the late conditions will be much worse, but at least the conditions right now are as tough as they have been in over a week.
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08-10-12 06:57 AM #9
going to be some big digits shot today boyz... brandt snedekers caddie just shot me a text saying the place is fukkin nuts right now...they wish they could play this afternoon instead...he will have to play really well to make the cut
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08-10-12 09:01 AM #10
Early projections are 3 more strokes today vs the average score from yesterday. I see it getting worse before it gets better, 25-30 mph winds are expected. I have the over on almost every big name American today, and even Rory who I bet over several players for tourney h2h.
Originally Posted by raydog
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08-10-12 07:20 PM #11
Huge scores today, haven't ran the numbers but probably 5 strokes/players. With the exception of Mickelson going under, and Tiger pushing, the over bets were a great investment!
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08-10-12 07:29 PM #12
Tiger played well
Not man red numbers
Course conditions treacherousSBR Founder Join Date: 7/20/2005
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08-11-12 07:16 AM #13
THE PRO'S AVERAGE SCORE YESTERDAY WAS 78
WHAT DO YOU THINK THE AVERAGE GOLFER LIKE MYSELF WOULD SHOOT IN THOSE SAME CONDITIONS
I HAVE A 7 HANDICAP BUT I DONT PLAY WELL IN THE WIND BECAUSE I HIT MY IRONS HIGH.I WOULD BE SCARED TO THINK WHAT MY SCORE WOULD BE FROM THE BACK TEES AT KIAWAH ISLAND
TIGER PLAYED GREAT BUT HIS WEEKEND SCORES IN MAJORS HAVENT BEEN GOOD WE WILL SEE IF HE CAN KEEP IT UP ON THE WEEKEND.SBR Founder Join Date: 8/12/2005
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08-11-12 08:41 AM #14
True his weekend scores haven't been great for a while, but I expect him to hang tough. He certainly doesn't mind the length or the wind of the course. With the exception of #18, he looked super smooth and had that look and swagger back in his game. He was making awesome shot and putting very well, nothing seemed off in his game. Definitely think this is his best chance to win a major in 3 years.
Loved how all my posts about the weather and high scores coincided with the highest score avaerage in the history of the PGA Championship yesterday!
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08-11-12 08:55 AM #15
Tiger was a few inches away actually from winning British
Some bad bounces killed himSBR Founder Join Date: 7/20/2005
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08-11-12 09:36 AM #16
some guy shot 93 yesterday not bad
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08-11-12 11:11 AM #17
True, I guess that was a better chance to win a major than the one he has this weekend. I am not a fan of his, but he definitely seems to have that dominant look and confidence in his game. He is eating up the distance and wind of the course and nailing putts on the relatively flat easy greens. I see a couple of the top leaderboard guys fallling off today. It will be interesting to see who makes a charge at him. Originally Posted by jjgold
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08-11-12 11:17 AM #18
I am jealous of this guy. He played the course for free, put up an amateurish score and still will get paid $2500 for his 2 round effort. Originally Posted by eastern2
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