Playing Trends

jjgold · 09-15-2006, 07:14 AM

Do any guys get into this stuff?

Ex: Dallas 4-1 after one week's rest
Giants 23-12 after they lose the money to an above 500 team?

Huh? Thus stuff means nothing and you can find winning trends on both sides of the ball ever week.

dirtyjock · 09-15-2006, 09:58 AM

my thoughts on this is nothing more than useless data. Im sure one week it will produce some sweet ass 10-4 then got 4-10. Only trend i think holds true is back to back games in the nba.

rm18 · 09-15-2006, 01:48 PM

Depends, the fact that the Skins have only lost by more than 6 points twice in the last two season means a lot to me when I can get them +7.5 for Sunday night.

People might say it is a different roster but I also love the trend of how Miami has won straight up the last 8 times they were an underdog, those are the two trends I am loving for this weekend.

Seattle Slew · 09-15-2006, 01:54 PM

These stats are laughable. Like you said, you can come up with any type of stat if you're looking long enough.

There was a handicapper on one of the shows many years ago (Dr. something?) who based all his picks on this nonsense. I think he was later arrested for something.

Pete Axthelm used to use this type of nonsense on his picks when working for NBC.

I heard the Cowboys are 6-1-1 ATS if Parcells eats chicken the night before the game, but only 3-5-1 ATS when Bill eats steak.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjgold

Do any guys get into this stuff?

Ex: Dallas 4-1 after one week's rest
Giants 23-12 after they lose the money to an above 500 team?

Huh? Thus stuff means nothing and you can find winning trends on both sides of the ball ever week.

dirtyjock · 09-15-2006, 02:13 PM

i just dont see how what has happened the last two years will have to do with todays outcome. Even if they have all same players from two years ago. Theres something called age that has affect on all players. but if u wish to use these trends best of luck

Dark Horse · 09-15-2006, 02:20 PM

Trends are only useful if you have a large enough sample size.

Can be very helpful; if you want to play the numbers. Just one tool in the toolbox.

bigboydan · 09-15-2006, 02:39 PM

Every trend is gonna end at some point.

I feel you would have to find a little bit more outside the trend in order to help support it. You can't bet trends blindly, because that could kill ya no matter how strong the trend might be.

Dark Horse · 09-15-2006, 02:59 PM

Trends that end aren't really trends. I just went over about 4000 college football games, and broke them down into a grid to uncover different motivational patterns. The three main angles I found were 117-70, 266-185, and 180-140. The first two have a Z-factor well above 3, which means that they're not based on luck (less than 1% chance). I may very well hit a 0-10 streak playing those trends, but in the long run they'll make me money.

It comes down to sample size. Everybody knows that a 8-1 trend won't go 80-10. So 8-1 is not a trend, but a fluctuation.

LVHerbie · 09-15-2006, 04:13 PM

For the most part I ignore trends but, as I believe dark horse alluded to, I think there is some merit to few of them... The one thing I would look for is a big sample size and something that can be explained by common sense and logic... Over 10 games just about anything can happen and I definently have problems with trends that occur over multi-seasons, with different players and coaches..

jjgold · 09-16-2006, 01:09 AM

The only thing you need to look at is how teams have played the last 3 games or so, injuries and read local newspapers.

pags11 · 09-16-2006, 03:32 AM

I think you have to look at trends a little when handicapping...