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  1. #36

  2. #37
    jjgold's Avatar SBR PRO
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    I do not trust anyone picks here yet as far as Aussie sports
    I do not know if your all just taking shots for the action or have a clue
    I am going to ask guys I know that live in Australia and bet big to see if the stuff written here is accurate

    I am cautious with everything I do

    SBR Founder Join Date: 7/20/2005


  3. #38
    shari91's Avatar Moderator
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    Why does this Brissie 2H line keep dropping? Down 7pts at Sportingbet now. Really tempted to jump on Carlton -16.5 2H but am just going to ride out. Hopefully my over hits so I'll just lose the juice if the Blues run away with it.

    Edit - should've said it was now Carlton -13.5. Unreal.

  4. #39

    2nd half line is -13.5 @ centrebet

    im tempted to take 2H over 93.5 but maybe im being gready since im already on over 191.5. It should easily go over 93.5 but dont want to lose my profit...

  5. #40
    shari91's Avatar Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by MatI View Post
    2nd half line is -13.5 @ centrebet

    im tempted to take 2H over 93.5 but maybe im being gready since im already on over 191.5. It should easily go over 93.5 but dont want to lose my profit...
    Yeah it ended up at -13.5 at Sporting too. Had to edit my post a few times

    I was tempted to jump on the over as well but I decided to let it go. If I only end up eating the juice for fading Carlton, I'll be happy with that. And at least now I can still cheer for Brisbane to come back without having to worry about yet another 2H bet.

  6. #41
    ACoochy's Avatar SBR PRO
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    I do not trust anyone picks here yet as far as Aussie sports
    I do not know if your all just taking shots for the action or have a clue
    I am going to ask guys I know that live in Australia and bet big to see if the stuff written here is accurate

    I am cautious with everything I do
    yeah that's y ur 54k in the red on that spreadsheet of yours, cos ur SO cautious...

    Fukk u as I've proved myself both here and afar already.

    Guys, to reiterate, plays in post 1 are ALL leans...play them or fade them and I wanted to apologize for any misinterpretation caused. GL

  7. #42

    yeah, i stayed off the 2H plays as well. GL. Go Blues!

  8. #43
    shari91's Avatar Moderator
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    Matty, we should've faded the mother f'n public in the 2H. SON OF A BITCH. A 7pt line drop!

    Maybe we should start tracking line movement. Or maybe someone is? If not, I can try to do it starting next week. Sucks to have missed the first 2 weeks but unless someone has the opening lines for each match in R1 and 2, I might be sol.

  9. #44
    ACoochy's Avatar SBR PRO
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    Btw thanks for the links Matl and Shari...
    This one's over fellas :thumbdown:
    Congrats blues backers...
    Shari, gonna take ur advice with the power. Still treading lightly here ppl...

  10. #45

    Quote Originally Posted by brucethebear View Post
    I have the wire to wire as any other result as my only play.
    Ie the same team does not lead at the end of all 4 quarters.
    I expect the lions to start strong and run out of legs.
    A little lucky that Carlton can't kick for shit, but it is a winner.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 04/07/2014


  11. #46

    Quote Originally Posted by shari91 View Post
    Matty, we should've faded the mother f'n public in the 2H. SON OF A BITCH. A 7pt line drop!

    Maybe we should start tracking line movement. Or maybe someone is? If not, I can try to do it starting next week. Sucks to have missed the first 2 weeks but unless someone has the opening lines for each match in R1 and 2, I might be sol.
    yeah, left money on the table there!

    Tracking line movement would be interesting to see where it ends up against game outcomes but how much is it going to help? Line was dropping all afternoon in Brisbane's favour and same in 2H, but then look at the game...

    Brissy haven't even scored this qtr!

  12. #47
    shari91's Avatar Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by MatI View Post
    yeah, left money on the table there!

    Tracking line movement would be interesting to see where it ends up against game outcomes but how much is it going to help? Line was dropping all afternoon in Brisbane's favour and same in 2H, but then look at the game...

    Brissy haven't even scored this qtr!
    Well that's what I mean. Should we be following the movement, fading it or is it irrelevant? I'm not sure the last time I saw a line plummet like that on a 2H. I mean it's not up for that long so either the public was hammering it or a few big bets came in across the books. I know 2yrs ago the movement was very important for totals but I never bothered tracking the spreads as I'd always wait to see who was in for each side. I'm just a bit shocked at how much action this match took all around. But maybe that was due to the start of the holiday long wknd as well? I'll have to investigate a bit more.

    F'n Brissie with 1pt in a quarter. You're shitting me.

  13. #48

  14. #49

  15. #50
    ACoochy's Avatar SBR PRO
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    U too Gamblor. Happy Easter Guys and Hello 4 day long weekend :cheersbuddy:

  16. #51
    shari91's Avatar Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by brucethebear View Post
    A little lucky that Carlton can't kick for shit, but it is a winner.
    ah just saw this - nice bet Bruce!

    and yeah Gamblor, still a full wknd ahead of us. Can't believe I have to sweat out this over thanks to that 3Q - or lack of it from Brisbane. I already have West Coast, Port and Adelaide in. Really tempted to take GWS as well but need someone to give me a bit of insight on North as I've just ignored them for the most part. Damn and I'm liking Freo as well. Looks like another crazy few days of betting once I throw the totals in there too

    Happy long weekend/Easter everyone!

  17. #52

  18. #53

    Quote Originally Posted by shari91 View Post
    Well that's what I mean. Should we be following the movement, fading it or is it irrelevant? I'm not sure the last time I saw a line plummet like that on a 2H. I mean it's not up for that long so either the public was hammering it or a few big bets came in across the books. I know 2yrs ago the movement was very important for totals but I never bothered tracking the spreads as I'd always wait to see who was in for each side. I'm just a bit shocked at how much action this match took all around. But maybe that was due to the start of the holiday long wknd as well? I'll have to investigate a bit more.

    F'n Brissie with 1pt in a quarter. You're shitting me.
    I think it's mostly irrelevant unless you know if the line is being moved by sharp money or the public just getting on a line. Most previews for this game tipped it to be close, and so im guessing a fair bit of public money was coming in on Brisbane to cover the spread. But there is no way to see any stats on percentage of bets etc and line movement like we can with American sports so its very hard to tell. Carlton havent been getting any respect either due to their pre-season form. That is going to change after this game though. My rule of thumb is to just ignore it and take whatever you think is best. Line movement is definately not the be all and end all.

    Also, i think it was interesting before tonights game that while the line was moving in Brisbanes favour, the ML didnt budge and stayed at 1.30 all day.

  19. #54

    Not too surprised, the blues are well in contention for the top 4 this year, while the lions won't make the 8. On top of it all, the fatigue factor set in, and the 5 day break that the lions had took it's toll, while the blues had 7 days off.


    Going to have to think about it, but the Sydney game will be the place to find value. The week off will have a bit of an impact, I'd be leaning towards the dockers (especially considering how often sides lost after the bye last year). Nothing more than a lean at this stage, but think I'll end up having 0.5-1 unit on something there.

  20. #55

    Didn't think I'd see you on the Bears on a 5 day turn around.

    I guess its easy to say now, but I did play it for a unit. I was busy yesterday and lucky I put Carlton in early. I missed the over, which I also liked.

    I think I'll be on the other side of both of you. I like Essendon tomorrow. Even though they lost last week, I was impressed with them.

    I'll be on a lot of the overs this round again, depending on how they are set obviously.

    I think I like Freo and Geelong too, but as far as sides go, this round I don't have a lot I feel strongly about.

  21. #56
    shari91's Avatar Moderator
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    fu Gee, give me some insight

    you know anything about North?

    (and see how the totals have all jumped from last week - i hate books)

  22. #57

    Quote Originally Posted by Gee View Post
    I think I'll be on the other side of both of you. I like Essendon tomorrow. Even though they lost last week, I was impressed with them.

    Mate, Essendon won last week. You have lost focus. Get your head back in the game!

  23. #58

    My reasoning last night was pretty simple. Brisbane on the short turn around (always harder early in the year) and Blues showed last week that they were foxing in the pre-season.

    I think only bet365 is out... Swans/Dockers at 166.5. That probably means some horrific weather is looking likely?? I see rain is forecast. If thats the case, be wary of the Dockers. I'll be on Sydney. We don't get much rain over here and I'll take the Swans over Freo in a wet weather grind any day.

    The totals actually look OK for the overs though right?

    Don't know much about North, other than that they play a style of game where they can really pump GWS, which they should. Potential second game let down, whereas North will be really hungry after missing a shot after the siren to win. Not sure if I'll play this one though. GWS were decent last week...

    btw, what data do you need? I don't know if I have the actual openers, but I try to copy and paste the centrebet lines and email them to myself each day starting monday with a note on the line movement and if there is any significant team news. Don't do it every day if I don't have time, but i do check the lines each day.

  24. #59

    Quote Originally Posted by brettels View Post
    Mate, Essendon won last week. You have lost focus. Get your head back in the game!


    I am ******* hung over. Bucks night last, which is why I didn't post about Carlton.

    But yeah, thats what I meant. They only just scraped through, but still impressed me. Should have won by more.

  25. #60

    Quote Originally Posted by Gee View Post
    My reasoning last night was pretty simple. Brisbane on the short turn around (always harder early in the year) and Blues showed last week that they were foxing in the pre-season.

    I think only bet365 is out... Swans/Dockers at 166.5. That probably means some horrific weather is looking likely?? I see rain is forecast. If thats the case, be wary of the Dockers. I'll be on Sydney. We don't get much rain over here and I'll take the Swans over Freo in a wet weather grind any day.

    The totals actually look OK for the overs though right?

    Don't know much about North, other than that they play a style of game where they can really pump GWS, which they should. Potential second game let down, whereas North will be really hungry after missing a shot after the siren to win. Not sure if I'll play this one though. GWS were decent last week...

    btw, what data do you need? I don't know if I have the actual openers, but I try to copy and paste the centrebet lines and email them to myself each day starting monday with a note on the line movement and if there is any significant team news. Don't do it every day if I don't have time, but i do check the lines each day.
    I don't think that total has much to do with weather, I live in Sydney, today was fine and there seems to be just cloud forecast tomorrow. The totals are usually a bit lower at the SCG because it is a slightly more compact oval compared to the MCG etc. Despite that I'm just going to keep riding the overs until they stabilize.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 04/07/2014


  26. #61
    shari91's Avatar Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Domestic View Post
    I don't think that total has much to do with weather, I live in Sydney, today was fine and there seems to be just cloud forecast tomorrow. The totals are usually a bit lower at the SCG because it is a slightly more compact oval compared to the MCG etc. Despite that I'm just going to keep riding the overs until they stabilize.
    ah me too

    they're trying to compensate for the SCG but I don't think it'll matter. Next week we'll see 190+ totals for every game.
    And no one has a definitive grip on North. Not sure if that's good or bad.

  27. #62

    166.5 still seems awfully low if the weather is good.

    You may be right that its just the SCG factor, but they can and will still put up points!

    Yeah, well it is round 2 Shari! Some big ins for GWS and big outs for North. Thats one game that I don't necessarily like the over. GWS like chipping it around.

  28. #63

    Yeah, agreed it seems low. I would have expected to see it in the low 170's, we'll see what Sportingbet/Centrebet churn out tomorrow.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 04/07/2014


  29. #64

    50% chance of rain in sydney tomorrow! i'd smash that over!!!

  30. #65

    Melb might have shyt weather tmrw. Under could be worth a bet. Hope we get a gd number with the bookies knowing lots of overs have been hitting

  31. #66

    melbourne weather should be fine, less chance of rain tomorrow! OVERS!

  32. #67

    Surely the weather favours a low score? Inaccurate kicking? Often the team with the highest skill levels prevails easily?

  33. #68

    What do you think is wrong with the weather in melbourne, its looking like a good day on the forecast. wait for the O/U to come out first.

  34. #69

    Yeah, both Melbourne and Sydney looking fine at the moment.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 04/07/2014


  35. #70

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