[knicknut]

Well, here was my thinking:

Lots of money is going on the Steelers at Mansion.
That means lots of money is going on Miami everywhere else.
Therefore, the line is probably faded towards Miami. If I give it time, it will probably fade back and I'll get a slightly better price on Miami closer to gameday.

Thanks to Big Ben's crappy appendix, I now can't cover at all (I have Pitt at -5). Pinn's line mover only goes to +4 which would leave me exposed on exactly 5, not to mention I'd be paying through my nose for those extra points.

Now the ~$475 of EV is closer to $300, if not less. Hooray!

I know I can't complain too much, since it is free money, but loss of EV is loss of EV. Who can commiserate with me?

[Dark Horse]

Get Miami +3 (present Hilton line). Games end on 4 and 5 only a combined 9.8% of the time. Odds 9-1 in your favor.

[fearless]

Well, here was my thinking:

Lots of money is going on the Steelers at Mansion.
That means lots of money is going on Miami everywhere else.
Therefore, the line is probably faded towards Miami. If I give it time, it will probably fade back and I'll get a slightly better price on Miami closer to gameday.

Thanks to Big Ben's crappy appendix, I now can't cover at all (I have Pitt at -5). Pinn's line mover only goes to +4 which would leave me exposed on exactly 5, not to mention I'd be paying through my nose for those extra points.

Now the ~$475 of EV is closer to $300, if not less. Hooray!

I know I can't complain too much, since it is free money, but loss of EV is loss of EV. Who can commiserate with me?

You can buy up to 15 points at 5dimes, if you trust them enough.

[knicknut]

Get Miami +3 (present Hilton line). Games end on 4 and 5 only a combined 9.8% of the time. Odds 9-1 in your favor.

Sorry for the ignorance, but is Hilton's line available online? I can't really call a bet into LV.

rainbow, I don't think the added vig of buying points is worth it at this point.

[Dark Horse]

If Hilton got the line back up at 3, other books couldn't be too far off.

You can also tease the game. Even if line is 2.5 a 6 pt teaser would get you +8.5 for Miami (givng you a shot at the middle!). There are a couple of good games to tease in week 1 (NE -8.5 and AZ -7.5), or you could keep the second game for later. The Greek allows a two week window for open teasers. GL

[Scorpion]

would leave me exposed on exactly 5, not to mention I'd be paying through my nose for those extra points.

i read 1.65% of NFL games land on 5

[knicknut]

Really? Only 35-30 I guess? Seems like it'd be more popular.

[JoshW]

Let it ride. Unless you have a good opinion on the game and/or this is so much money to you a hedge will significantly help your bankroll, I would just let it ride and not make a negative expectation bet.

[jjgold]

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

Pretty accurate Vegas Lines

[jocdoc]

Mansion re-opened today with pitt/mia at pk -110

[ttmopp]

Mansion re-opened today with pitt/mia at pk -110

Just took it! It was good thing to wait. My first NFL bet and definately not gonna hedge at all

edit: now +1 -110

[onlooker]

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

Pretty accurate Vegas Lines

Good link. I been using that for quite sometime. Lines are usually right on. It just has a 15 minute update delay. I think its 15 minutes. You can click on the odds of any game and see the line movement for each book.

There is a link on there to switch to offshore books as well.

[rolemand]

I'll take my chances with Pitt +1 vs Mia +4

Hoping for Pitt to win by late FG !

[knicknut]

I agree, have to let it ride at this point. Paying too much vig to hedge.

Man, to get them at PK, then cover at Pinn at -103, i think 13c is the cheapest hedge we've seen on this bet.

[Lucas]

All we suckers who hadn´t hedged can celebrate

[rolemand]

Culpepper cost me the $550 hedge with that pick for a TD. He sucks!!!!!!!

[knicknut]

Woooooooooooooooot!

Thank You Ben And Your Appendix. Y'all Made Me $525!!!

[slacker00]

Culpepper cost me the $550 hedge with that pick for a TD. He sucks!!!!!!!

Culpepper made me $1000 on that same play! Thank God he sucks! haha!