vegas cant hold a candle to pinnacle, €40,000 limits for aussie open

01-27-12 04:56 PM

and obviously you can bet that €40,000 over and over again, there is no true limit at pinnacle, takes 3 seconds, no questions asked, and low juice most importantly, you could literally bet millions on this match

jjgold · 01-27-12 05:01 PM

Unreal

Betfair you can get about 100,000 down on any decent tennis match

Jaug · 01-27-12 05:09 PM

Its crazy actually. Shows how sharp that line is. Nobody should bet

01-27-12 05:22 PM

Originally Posted by jjgold

Unreal

Betfair you can get about 100,000 down on any decent tennis match

jj please read before responding, pinnacle has no limits, you can place 40,000euro wagers all day long

it would take about 30 seconds to place 3x40,000 wagers and you already have 120,000 down on the match

01-27-12 05:27 PM

Originally Posted by SportsMushroom

jj please read before responding, pinnacle has no limits, you can place 40,000euro wagers all day long

it would take about 30 seconds to place 3x40,000 wagers and you already have 120,000 down on the match

...... unlikely you could do all three lots at those odds.

Betfair turnover on tennis vastly exceeds Pinnacle's.

opie1988 · 01-27-12 05:29 PM

Yeah, but........Does Pinnacle have hookers?

01-27-12 05:36 PM

Originally Posted by Jaug

Its crazy actually. Shows how sharp that line is. Nobody should bet

most prices you will find at any book and for any sport/game are essentially pinnacle clones, but with more vig added to them

if you think that pinnacle lines are unbeatable then you really should quit gambling because that would hold true for every other book out there

Jaug · 01-27-12 05:40 PM

Originally Posted by SportsMushroom

most prices you will find at any book and for any sport/game are essentially pinnacle clones, but with more vig added to them

if you think that pinnacle lines are unbeatable then you really should quit gambling because that would hold true for every other book out there

There is a difference between a $70 limit pinny line, that's basically a guess.

A $70 000 limit pinny line, that's scary sharp.

01-27-12 05:42 PM

Originally Posted by FourLengthsClear

...... unlikely you could do all three lots at those odds.

Betfair turnover on tennis vastly exceeds Pinnacle's.

yes but at betfair you are limited by how many people are willing to match you, at pinnacle you are not essentially limited, you can bet as much as you want and pinnacle will keep taking your action

also yes when you bet the odds may change, you can wait until price goes up and pound it again

and betfair and pinnacle have the same juice, but factor in commission and pinnacle has way lower juice than betfair

01-27-12 05:44 PM

Originally Posted by Jaug

There is a difference between a $70 limit pinny line, that's basically a guess.

A $70 000 limit pinny line, that's scary sharp.

yes but if you check prices at all books are the same with extra vig added to the mix, so if line is sharp its sharp everywere, but atleast with pinnacle you get a lot less juice

01-27-12 05:52 PM

Originally Posted by SportsMushroom

yes but if you check prices at all books are the same with extra vig added to the mix, so if line is sharp its sharp everywere, but atleast with pinnacle you get a lot less juice

Depends on a whole range of factors, not least the sport. Pinny is not the benchmark book for soccer, for example.

That notwithstanding what you say is not actually true, it it was the Pinnacle would always have the best line/odds. They don't meaning that having other books is beneficial.

For the women's final for example there are 3 books (that I can see) which have better line than Pinny for Azarenka, one of which is clearly off.

01-27-12 06:14 PM

Originally Posted by SportsMushroom

yes but at betfair you are limited by how many people are willing to match you, at pinnacle you are not essentially limited, you can bet as much as you want and pinnacle will keep taking your action

also yes when you bet the odds may change, you can wait until price goes up and pound it again

and betfair and pinnacle have the same juice, but factor in commission and pinnacle has way lower juice than betfair

No they don't. Both the Men's and women's finals will be traded continuously at Betfair with 100.2 - 100.3% (equivalent to -101). In terms of commission, well if you are the sort of guy who is dealing the EUR 120k bets, it is probably fair to say you would be at the lower end of the commission scale. At 3% for example, it would bring the effective Betfair odds down to an equivalent of -102.5 or -103.

As far as getting action down on Betfair, I have turned over (as a trader) in excess of EUR 2 million on single matches before.

jjgold · 01-27-12 06:25 PM

Originally Posted by FourLengthsClear

No they don't. Both the Men's and women's finals will be traded continuously at Betfair with 100.2 - 100.3% (equivalent to -101). In terms of commission, well if you are the sort of guy who is dealing the EUR 120k bets, it is probably fair to say you would be at the lower end of the commission scale. At 3% for example, it would bring the effective Betfair odds down to an equivalent of -102.5 or -103.

As far as getting action down on Betfair, I have turned over (as a trader) in excess of EUR 2 million on single matches before.

LT Profits · 01-27-12 07:16 PM

And this is news? Vegas had been irrelevant for about 15 years now.

01-27-12 08:49 PM

Originally Posted by FourLengthsClear

No they don't. Both the Men's and women's finals will be traded continuously at Betfair with 100.2 - 100.3% (equivalent to -101). In terms of commission, well if you are the sort of guy who is dealing the EUR 120k bets, it is probably fair to say you would be at the lower end of the commission scale. At 3% for example, it would bring the effective Betfair odds down to an equivalent of -102.5 or -103.

As far as getting action down on Betfair, I have turned over (as a trader) in excess of EUR 2 million on single matches before.

2 million is impressive, how much do you clear from that, although I am pretty sure you could put down 2 million on a game at pinnacle too

the figures you provide though dont seem accurate to me, you are assuming no vig lines from betfair, pinnacle deals -103 for tennis and so does betfair

add to that a 3-5% commission and you are looking at -106 to -108 lines vs -103 lines

also your argument about the line at pinnacle moving is not material, the line at most books, including betfair moves more or less with the whole market, at any point in time prices at pinnacle and betfair are similar, so theoretically you will get a similar price at either book, with the deference that at betfair you are limited by liquidity of other bettors while at pinnacle you are not

Hareeba! · 01-27-12 08:59 PM

Betfair's current markets for the women's finals are 100.6% bet and 99.9% lay

01-27-12 09:00 PM

Originally Posted by SportsMushroom

2 million is impressive, how much do you clear from that, although I am pretty sure you could put down 2 million on a game at pinnacle too

the figures you provide though dont seem accurate to me, pinnacle deals -103 for tennis and so does betfair

add to that a 3-5% commission and you are looking at -106 to -108 lines vs -103 lines

I repeat that figure is as a trader in terms of turnover, not in terms of exposure.

I don't know where you are getting Betfair and -103 from.

Just by way of example, the current odds for the women's singles match are:

Azerenka: Back at 1.74 or lay at 1.75
Sharapova: Back at 2.32 or lay at 2.34

The two lay figures equate to

1 / 1.75 = 57.14%
1 / 2.34 = 42.73%

=99.87%
This is the eqiivalent of -100.3 pricing.

01-27-12 09:26 PM

yes the juice seems to be quite low

to be honest I used to use betfair a long time ago and I always remember them dealing 7-10 cent juice, I dont know if that changed or if I dont remember correctly

but you still have to factor in commission which turns that into -103 to -105 line, and the premium charge, I dont know how that works if you could explain it for me, I would assume that with those figures it probably kicks in for you

anyhow I still maintain that pinnacle is better, if you factor in commission and premiums, juice is lower at pinnacle, and I can now go and drop 40,000 on the final in 3 secs, look at the liquidity at betfair right now, 5-6 thousand per player,

and this is the final we are talking about, I cant imagine what the liquidity is at smaller events, also I can now go and drop 15k on the thunder utah game, only 100 bucks at betfair

Hareeba! · 01-27-12 09:34 PM

Originally Posted by SportsMushroom

yes the juice seems to be quite low

to be honest I used to use betfair a long time ago and I always remember them dealing 7-10 cent juice, I dont know if that changed or if I dont remember correctly

but you still have to factor in commission which turns that into -103 to -105 line, and the premium charge, I dont know how that works if you could explain it for me, I would assume that with those figures it probably kicks in for you

anyhow I still maintain that pinnacle is better, if you factor in commission and premiums, juice is lower at pinnacle, and I can now go and drop 40,000 on the final in 3 secs, look at the liquidity at betfair right now, 5-6 thousand per player,

and this is the final we are talking about, I cant imagine what the liquidity is at smaller events, also I can now go and drop 15k on the thunder utah game, only 100 bucks at betfair

Pinnacle deals higher juiced lines for non grand slam tennis and their limits are a lot lower than $40K.

I always shop between them and end up placing at least as many tennis bets at Betfair as at Pinnacle. And frequently Matchbook will beat them both.

Most punters don't incur the premium charge at Betfair so no need to factor that in.

Put up offers at Betfair if there isn't enough current liquidity. If you aren't too greedy you will almost certainly get matched.

01-27-12 09:45 PM

Originally Posted by SportsMushroom

yes the juice seems to be quite low

to be honest I used to use betfair a long time ago and I always remember them dealing 7-10 cent juice, I dont know if that changed or if I dont remember correctly

but you still have to factor in commission which turns that into -103 to -105 line, and the premium charge, I dont know how that works if you could explain it for me, I would assume that with those figures it probably kicks in for you

anyhow I still maintain that pinnacle is better, if you factor in commission and premiums, juice is lower at pinnacle, and I can now go and drop 40,000 on the final in 3 secs, look at the liquidity at betfair right now, 5-6 thousand per player,

and this is the final we are talking about, I cant imagine what the liquidity is at smaller events, also I can now go and drop 15k on the thunder utah game, only 100 bucks at betfair

Commission of 3% equates to 1.5 cents in terms of juice so it would still be less than a -102 line.

In terms of smaller tennis events liquidity is still generally good and you have to bear in mind that Pinny have much lower limits and will generally deal at -108 too.

TBH I wouldn't say which one is better, they are both must have outs for me. The amounts available right now are not representative of anything, if you were to take the GBP 4000 avilable on Azarenka, another GBP 4000 would appear as available within 2 seconds and then another 2 seconds after later if you hit the same number again until the traders have too high an exposure on one side and the odds shift, not dissimilar to Pinncle. Exchange betting/trading requires a different approach to a traditional book which is a turn off for some.

Betfair is not great for US Sports and probably never will be.

QQPALLADIUM · 01-27-12 09:52 PM

Originally Posted by Hareeba!

Pinnacle deals higher juiced lines for non grand slam tennis and their limits are a lot lower than $40K.

I always shop between them and end up placing at least as many tennis bets at Betfair as at Pinnacle. And frequently Matchbook will beat them both.

Most punters don't incur the premium charge at Betfair so no need to factor that in.

Put up offers at Betfair if there isn't enough current liquidity. If you aren't too greedy you will almost certainly get matched.

just as we discussed...if you aren't incurring the charge you aren't a successful punter.

Hareeba! · 01-27-12 10:01 PM

Originally Posted by QQPALLADIUM

just as we discussed...if you aren't incurring the charge you aren't a successful punter.

You quite obviously have no idea what you are talking about.

jjgold · 01-28-12 12:56 AM

betfair has the lowest juice also for American Sports live betting mainly tv games in the uk

Volume is much more than you think even on nba games

Your looking at 300,000-1 million or so depending on day teams playing

I believe a small time game like Phila tonight got 450,000

01-28-12 01:49 AM

Originally Posted by FourLengthsClear

Commission of 3% equates to 1.5 cents in terms of juice so it would still be less than a -102 line.

In terms of smaller tennis events liquidity is still generally good and you have to bear in mind that Pinny have much lower limits and will generally deal at -108 too.

i bet the smaller tourneys at pinny and up to now only noticed -103 lines, havent been with them that long so I will take your word on that one

also 3% commission is essentially a -103 line

if you bet $1 on a -100 line and win, you will be charged 3% or 0.03 on the dollar you just made, hence -103 effective line

also out of pure interest, not regarding the argument, do you incur premium charges? if yes, when do they kick in? and can they be avoided?

Winner_13 · 01-28-12 02:17 AM

Originally Posted by jjgold

betfair has the lowest juice also for American Sports live betting mainly tv games in the uk

Volume is much more than you think even on nba games

Your looking at 300,000-1 million or so depending on day teams playing

I believe a small time game like Phila tonight got 450,000

what do you mean it got 450,000?
are you saying you can do live wagering for up to 450 K a side?

gregm · 01-28-12 02:30 AM

Great thread, surprised this in players talk.

Hareeba! · 01-28-12 02:40 AM

Originally Posted by Winner_13

what do you mean it got 450,000?
are you saying you can do live wagering for up to 450 K a side?

I expect that would be what Betfair reports as "matched bets" ... essentially counting what players on both sides of the bet have outlayed .... so more realistic to halve the total to get an idea of the true turnover on the game

Hareeba! · 01-28-12 02:46 AM

Originally Posted by SportsMushroom

also out of pure interest, not regarding the argument, do you incur premium charges? if yes, when do they kick in? and can they be avoided?

Premium Charge Summary

You will only be considered for the Premium Charge if, over the lifetime of your account, you satisfy the following criteria:
Your account is in profit;
Your total charges generated are less than 20%† of gross profits; and
You bet in more than 250 markets.
Two further conditions reduce the likelihood that you will be required to pay the Premium Charge:
Any single win that constitutes more than 50% of your gross profits over the lifetime of your account will be excluded from the calculation; and
Each customer will have a lifetime allowance of £1,000 against the Premium Charge.
Each week the customers who meet all the conditions set out above will be charged the lesser of:
The difference between 20%† of the previous week’s gross profits and the total charges generated during the week; and
The difference between 20%† of gross profits and the total charges generated during the lifetime of the account.

http://www.betfair.com/AUS_NZL/aboutUs/Betfair.Charges/

Jaug · 01-28-12 04:00 AM

Originally Posted by FourLengthsClear

I repeat that figure is as a trader in terms of turnover, not in terms of exposure.

I don't know where you are getting Betfair and -103 from.

Just by way of example, the current odds for the women's singles match are:

Azerenka: Back at 1.74 or lay at 1.75
Sharapova: Back at 2.32 or lay at 2.34

The two lay figures equate to

1 / 1.75 = 57.14%
1 / 2.34 = 42.73%

=99.87%
This is the eqiivalent of -100.3 pricing.

Lets say we have a betfair market with
2.00/2.01
2.00/2.01

On each side. Let's even assume we have a 100% pricing on the bet.

Now as a non-trader I bet and my effective odds is 1.95 due to commission. This is the same as -105 style pricing. That's assumed lines are 100% to start with which they of course never are.

Thus, betfair only for trading or complementary to pinny. Pinny rules the betting world with -105/-105, -103/-103, -102/-101 (EPL).

biggie12 · 01-28-12 04:11 AM

thread is comical even after drinking 5th of a 1.5 of greygoose good job boys

Hareeba! · 01-28-12 04:14 AM

Originally Posted by Jaug

Lets say we have a betfair market with
2.00/2.01
2.00/2.01

On each side. Let's even assume we have a 100% pricing on the bet.

Now as a non-trader I bet and my effective odds is 1.95 due to commission. This is the same as -105 style pricing. That's assumed lines are 100% to start with which they of course never are.

Thus, betfair only for trading or complementary to pinny. Pinny rules the betting world with -105/-105, -103/-103, -102/-101 (EPL).

That would be correct if your comm. rate is 5%. Regular players would be paying less, some as little as 2%.

I think you'll find that Pinnacle offers 8 cent lines for grand slam tennis but higher juice lines for the remainder of the season .. never 6 cents or lower?

01-28-12 06:13 AM

Originally Posted by Jaug

Lets say we have a betfair market with
2.00/2.01
2.00/2.01

On each side. Let's even assume we have a 100% pricing on the bet.

Now as a non-trader I bet and my effective odds is 1.95 due to commission. This is the same as -105 style pricing. That's assumed lines are 100% to start with which they of course never are.

Thus, betfair only for trading or complementary to pinny. Pinny rules the betting world with -105/-105, -103/-103, -102/-101 (EPL).

A bettor with any significant volume at all will not be paying 5 percent commission. I believe the average is 3.7% and to put into context, someone who makes 20 wagers every week @ GBP 1000 each at odds of 2.00 and who won 50% of those bets would be in the 4.2% range.

The other thing is that these same broad parameters apply across a whole range of markets. It is not unusual to see 101% or 102% markets even in 10 or 12 way markets (futures bets, formula one races, horse races etc etc) which is not something you can find anywhere else.

Hedging bets in the same market also incurs what is essentially negative commission.

Don't get me wrong, I love Pinny and the last thing I want to do is sound like a Betfair shill. They are both must have outs for me but they both also have amongst the least beatable lines (in major markets). We all know that there are much softer targets out there.

jjgold · 01-28-12 06:36 AM

Originally Posted by Winner_13

what do you mean it got 450,000?
are you saying you can do live wagering for up to 450 K a side?

No just matched bets...I think easy can get down $500-$1000 on a low juice line live

HeeeHAWWWW · 01-28-12 06:37 AM

Betfair is fantastic if you can churn large volume at a midrange RoI. You'll get down to 3% commission, and avoid PC.

For a low volume high-RoI player, PC makes them unusable. Unfortunately, that's me - I haven't used them in three years as a result. Currently moving towards higher volume, but on markets they have no liquidity on .... oh well :-)

Pinny/SBO/ibc are basically exchanges by another name anyway. Stick up early lines with tiny limits, let the market refine, raise limits, more refining, raise more. Those early lines are not remotely sharp ...... they don't need to be.

jjgold · 01-28-12 06:37 AM

Summary.............Minuscule difference between the two other than bet sizes which are clearly higher at Betfair in the Euro Sports

Pinnacle is more of a fixed odds betting Book as Betfair is mainly a live betting operation

Pre Game I would think Pinnacle has better combo of higher bets sizes/lower juice

Live Betting Betfair wins easy

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