[VegasDave]

I wonder.

Just going to keep track of a few plays tonight...

NBA:

Oklahoma City Thunder +8.0: 1.10 Units to win 1.00 Units
Chicago Bulls +2.0: 1.10 Units to win 1.00 Units

NCAAB:

St. John's +4.0: 1.10 Units to win 1.00 Units

[curious]

I wonder.

Just going to keep track of a few plays tonight...

NBA:

Oklahoma City Thunder +8.0: 1.10 Units to win 1.00 Units
Chicago Bulls +2.0: 1.10 Units to win 1.00 Units

NCAAB:

St. John's +4.0: 1.10 Units to win 1.00 Units

What is a philosophy pick?

[Chi_archie]

more to it then just rlm... right dave? should be interesting...

an 82 game season vs a 16 game season changes things up a bit I think.....

the line is out for 12-16 hrs as opposed to 6 days...

[VegasDave]

Well, there are a lot of complexities to my philosophy picks in football, but for simplicities sake, it is trying to find what the bookie wants me to bet and then betting the opposite.

For the sake of these basketball picks, I took games that the public was on 80% or more ATS, 90% or more on the ML AND had reverse line movement. Pretty clear the books want people on the Lakers, Magic, and Orangemen, as they surely aren't doing anything to try and balance the betting action; they are encouraging even more of it with the RLM.

[jayc88]

if they dont move the line the bookies have balanced action period

[VegasDave]

more to it then just rlm... right dave? should be interesting...

an 82 game season vs a 16 game season changes things up a bit I think.....

the line is out for 12-16 hrs as opposed to 6 days...

It is funny, even when I try and translate some of my philosophy pick ideas over to college football they didn't work... though maybe I gave up on them too easily. But I've only been able to get a feel for them in the NFL so far.

[pavyracer]

If you are Socrates, Plato or Aristotle they work. If you are VD they don't.

[VegasDave]

if they dont move the line the bookies have balanced action period

I disagree. I think if bookies have a strong opinion on a game or know something we don't, they purposely want to entice us to bet the other side.

Here's the video I did a few months ago if anyone cares.

[mmike032]

so really believe that the books would take a risk of having all the money on one side of a game.
you really think the books know who is going to win/cover the game and try to trip the public.
what happens if their wrong? they lose money.
if the action is balanced then they win either way with the juice right?

why dont the books report how much money is on each side instead of the % of bets?
you could have 7000 bets on one side for a total of 30K. and on the other side 3000 bets equaling 30K.

[curious]

so really believe that the books would take a risk of having all the money on one side of a game.
you really think the books know who is going to win/cover the game and try to trip the public.
what happens if their wrong? they lose money.
if the action is balanced then they win either way with the juice right?

why dont the books report how much money is on each side instead of the % of bets?
you could have 7000 bets on one side for a total of 30K. and on the other side 3000 bets equaling 30K.

I asked someone who was in management at a small offshore book this question once. She told me that her book did not try to even the action because they did not have enough action to make that pay off. What they wanted was losing bets. That book had some REALLY weak lines if you were against their bias.

She said all small books behaved that way.

[Chi_archie]

many well known bookies have de-bunked the "balanced action" myth over and over...


books have more insight into this then the public...

[Chi_archie]

http://www.thegreek.com/2006/football-betting-myths.asp

[VegasDave]

Good post curious.

And again, I'm not saying its the case on every line. But these bookies know detailed injury info etc. that the Average Joe does not.

Huge school bully is fighting this little nerd after school. To get fair action on it, you'd probably set it at bully -800, nerd +600. But say you happen to be the only kid in school that knows the nerd has a black belt.

Do you still want balanced action?

Sure, the kid may lose anyway and you take the hit. But more often that not, if you are a bookie and you are in the know, you are probably going to win on your strong leans more often then not.

[james4512]

just wondering whats your philosophy behind st john? im just not seeing it

[VegasDave]

http://www.thegreek.com/2006/football-betting-myths.asp

Interesting Archie:

"Myth #3: Bookmakers have inside information that they use to establish "trap" games.
Reality: Nowadays, with nearly everyone having access to the Internet, it's not so much the information as how well that data is interpreted. Bookmakers still may occasionally receive information regarding injuries or weather changes before players, but thanks to technology, that advantage often can be measured in seconds. Many years ago, if a bookmaker found out some significant nugget of data, he might try to lure the bettor to the "wrong" side. Those days are gone as inside information has all but ceased to exist and there is no such thing as a "trap" game."

Not that they would admit to such a thing anyway.

But my point remains the same. If 90% of the action is one way and the 10% is where the sharps are, that is still the side I want to be on, even if it isn't a "trap".

[VegasDave]

just wondering whats your philosophy behind st john? im just not seeing it

I can't name a player on either team... not a basketball person.

Over 80% of bettors are on Syracuse ATS
Over 90% of bettors are on Syracuse ML
The line moved in favor of St. John.

Doesn't seem to you?

But again, I'm only tracking... no idea how this will do.

[pavyracer]

Pavy's Rule #1:

If you can't pick the winner of the game yourself it doesn't matter what the public, sharps, RLM or Grandma Jones bet on a particular game. Games are played by athletes and not computers.

[curious]

I can't name a player on either team... not a basketball person.

Over 80% of bettors are on Syracuse ATS
Over 90% of bettors are on Syracuse ML
The line moved in favor of St. John.

Doesn't seem to you?

But again, I'm only tracking... no idea how this will do.

Syracuse money line is the play on that game.

The line is just crazy, but crazy in a good way for Syracuse.

[VegasDave]

Syracuse money line is the play on that game.

The line is just crazy, but crazy in a good way for Syracuse.

GL if you played it!

I have no vested interest, just curiosity

[james4512]

I can't name a player on either team... not a basketball person.

Over 80% of bettors are on Syracuse ATS
Over 90% of bettors are on Syracuse ML
The line moved in favor of St. John.

Doesn't seem to you?

But again, I'm only tracking... no idea how this will do.

yeah doesnt make sense i guess but when it went down a point i added a unit to it. I looked through it and no injuries ect ect and cuse did what i expected 20 point win

[VegasDave]

yeah doesnt make sense i guess but when it went down a point i added a unit to it. I looked through it and no injuries ect ect and cuse did what i expected 20 point win

Very easy win for Cuse! Congrats .

1 - 2 day, -1.20 Units... not a very inspiring day, but its only a 3 game sample size.

Hope you guys were on the Lakers and Cuse tonight

[Casi]

if they dont move the line the bookies have balanced action period

you can check http://www.twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm
to see that´s not true.

[Crayzee]

never heard the term "philosophy pick" before
but i think i got an idea what you mean
one of the biggest of the year happened tonight and went in the bookies favor-
" oh- duncans out- line is down to san ant-1 everybody pound mavs and lose yer money"



i bit- but only a regular unit

[VegasDave]

Today:

Tracking Denver Nuggets +2.5: 1.10 Units to win 1.00 Units

[DeluxeLiner]

Dave you recording these basketball phil picks? or still in a trial run? Problem is, the sample size of bets is around 3k bets while with NFL we are usually looking at the data after 10k + bets.

[Chi_archie]

keep it going

[VegasDave]

Dave you recording these basketball phil picks? or still in a trial run? Problem is, the sample size of bets is around 3k bets while with NFL we are usually looking at the data after 10k + bets.

Just started Deluxe. I agree with you, it is a different beast... besides that, I don't know basketball good enough. In the NFL I don't necessarily care what the public bet; if I personally think a line looks way off, I'll philosophy pick the other side. Here, I have to go on the public as they know a lot more than me.

As much as I enjoy capping, everything I do is 50/50 other than those philosophy picks. If I could find a way to translate them into the other major sports, I think it could be enormously profitable.

[VegasDave]

Its also worth noting that there are other aspects to philosophy picks, such as...

*I always fade a team that is a favorite coming off of 3 straight divisional games
*I always bet on a team that lost as a home dog the week before and is a home dog this week

etc... "trends" that I don't have the #s to back up but I know they work as my philosophy picks are at 63% all time (last 4 years)...

I don't know/haven't learned little quarks like this in other sports. I'm hoping smitch weighs in, I believe he was studying one that calls for fading a home team that just got back from a 4+ game road trip or something along those lines.

Paging Dr. Smitch!

[Crayzee]

i pretty much bet all dogs that are
+1 to +2-1/2 in ncaab and nba
also take most overs 200+ in nba
and 150's in college

are these considered philosophy?

[VegasDave]

Well so far so good in the NBA:

2 - 1, +0.90 Units

Should be more if I played the ML instead of taking the measly points, but for the sake of this exercise I wanted to keep it uniform. Both Bulls and Nuggets with very easy victories.

They never seemed to work in NCAAF, so maybe I'll just stay focused on NBA instead of NCAAB for now.

[pat venditto]

No reason not to take the ml when the spread is only 3 2 or 1. Losing value.

[VegasDave]

No reason not to take the ml when the spread is only 3 2 or 1. Losing value.

Since I'm just tracking, I'm merely seeing how they do ATS... not concerned with value at the moment.

[pat venditto]

You're making your break even winning percentage higher by not taking moneylines.