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  1. 12-26-11 02:59 PM #1
    Rich Boy
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    Default Edge prop bet at Bet365

    Drew Brees UNDER 30 Pass Completions -140 @ Bet365

    Pinny is offering this bet at

    Over 28.5 -113
    Under 28.5 -103

    1.5 Pass completions is worth roughly 10.5%

    1.714 @ 59.3% is a nice 1.64% edge

    Enjoy
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  2. 12-26-11 03:03 PM #2
    Rich Boy
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    5dimes is also giving this at an edge

    Under 29.5 at +100

    Roughly 56% to win @ 2.00, another nice edge
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  3. 12-26-11 03:09 PM #3
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Boy View Post
    Drew Brees UNDER 30 Pass Completions -140 @ Bet365

    Pinny is offering this bet at

    Over 28.5 -113
    Under 28.5 -103

    1.5 Pass completions is worth roughly 10.5%

    1.714 @ 59.3% is a nice 1.64% edge

    Enjoy
    Interested in how you have calculated that.

    An edge of 1.64% is not that nice when it based on something described as "roughly". I like the under 28.5 at Pinny but have approached it from a completely different angle (can't play at Bet365 for more than pennies anyway).
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  4. 12-26-11 03:25 PM #4
    Rich Boy
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    Ive logged passing stats from a large sample of games to come up with that estimation. It is probably worth more than 10.5%, I always low ball my percentages to prevent me from overestimating my edge.
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  5. 12-26-11 03:27 PM #5
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Boy View Post
    Ive logged passing stats from a large sample of games to come up with that estimation. It is probably worth more than 10.5%, I always low ball my percentages to prevent me from overestimating my edge.
    Fair enough.
    BOL.
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  6. 12-26-11 10:49 PM #6
    FourLengthsClear
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    Nice hit.
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  7. 12-26-11 11:10 PM #7
    Rich Boy
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    Thanks. Pretty easy cash on this one...
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