Does Anyone Make Their Own Lines Here??

jjgold · 10-03-2005, 01:58 PM

Would think it is a lot of work and is it really worth it??

why · 10-03-2005, 02:55 PM

I have them in my head before I look.
Example:
Next week I capped the Lions at -3, they are at 1-1 1/2, I already bet the Lions!

EBone · 10-03-2005, 02:58 PM

JJ,

I do make my own lines and, yes, it is a tremendous amount of work for me to do. It becomes very frustrating on my end when I do all that work for making the lines and I end up losing for the weekend. I did well in both NFL and college last weekend so I'll certainly make my own lines for this weekend but I had been strugglin bad the 2 weekends before. I only make lines on college not pro.

E

jjgold · 10-03-2005, 04:13 PM

E-Bone how do you make them??

Power Ratings?

EBone · 10-03-2005, 04:59 PM

Yes, I compile a list of 22 power rating systems and use a convoluted averaging system to get what I think the appropriate line should be. Like I said, I do it for college and not pro because, in my experience, NFL power ratings have, tradiitionally, not been good indicators. I think the reason for that is that old adage "anyone can beat anyone on any given Sunday" applies strongly in the NFL.

Traditionally, I have done well relatively in college and given it all back in NFL. This year, I'm down overall in college and up a little in NFL (down overall because I go harder on college games). My power ratings yielded Wyoming, Michigan, Kansas, Florida Atlantic, UCLA and Louisana Tech last weekend for (4-2). The strongest play was Wyoming. The last two weekends were bad though. It seems to go in spurts.

I just cant figure out NFL though. I wish I had a reliable system to at least give me a gauge on how it could turn out. Thus far, I got nuthin.

The biggest problem I have is that I have to input every number manually in an Excel spreadsheet. That takes an awfully long time (approximately 10 minutes per game). When there is a full slate of college games, it can take me 8-10 hours before I have a good feel of what is happening. That's a lot of stinkin time.

I could use some compilers on the internet that have already computed the theoretical lines for these power rating systems but I have found that they are not exactly accurate sometimes. Therefore, I do it myself and, certainly, I make mistakes as well but I trust me more than I do these compilers. The other part is that Home Field Advantage is taken into account but no emotional advantage. This is purely a number without any emotion involved.

E

jjgold · 10-03-2005, 05:25 PM

I do not know anyway how you can put a number on emotions anyway.

You should try some compilers on the net and just see how it does by not betting them for real .

You ever try the Gold Sheet Power Numbers?

EBone · 10-03-2005, 07:22 PM

I don't have the Gold Sheet represented in my numbers. I probably should though. Are their power ratings free on their site?

E

jjgold · 10-03-2005, 08:16 PM

I do not think so I just looked

They have been around for a long time though

Senator7 · 10-03-2005, 09:28 PM

Gold Sheet Power Ratings are legendary. The Vegas oddsmakers used to incorporate them into their lines.

I do come up with lines for my own games and it is tedious. I usually spend my days off doing them for both the NFL and NCAA. Any NCAA game with an opening number of 21 or higher is tossed out. Any NFL game with an opening number of 10 or higher is tossed out. Every other game, I come up with lines for. Any game with a 3 point difference from my line to the actual line is considered a possible play. Then, I look at emotional factors and other situations. After all that, I usually come up with 7-10 college and 5-7 pro games that I feel good about playing.

Senator 7

Brick Tamland · 10-03-2005, 11:54 PM

I think most cappers try to look at the numbers to find a line they feel is "off". They calculate a few averages from covers or statfox and get a line then add their opinion to it.