how important are stats factor into your capping

bigboydan · 07-10-2006, 01:16 PM

i was discussing this with somebody just the other day. i personaly don't seem to find them to be all that important IMO.

what those stats won't tell you is if there meaningful or not. what i mean is, if a team is down say 7 runs and a player gets a meaningless homerun (like A-rod seems to do all the time) it's only good for him and his agent come contract time.

MrX · 07-10-2006, 02:02 PM

Stats are 100% of my capping, I don't use any intuition. However, the stats I use are not the stats you can just look up on espn. Trying to manually derive my numbers by looking up all the individual stats and performing the necesarry manipulations for each game, while possible, would be prohibitively time consuming.

BBD, you are absolutely correct that many stats thrown about by the media are close to meaningless, although I would disagree with your A-rod example. The search for true clutch hitting in baseball is mostly fruitless. Most fans will balk at this, but if you try to come up with a "clutch" stat (performing above average in key game situations) and attempt to use it a a predictor of clutch performance going forward, you won't find much, if any, correlation.

The key is finding the stats that are the best predictors of future performance, especially if they contradict with the more well known stats that "experts" use to judge talent.

bigboydan · 07-10-2006, 02:09 PM

i used A-rod as an example because the media has made mention of him doing that sorta thing, and people would know what i was refering too.

EBone · 07-10-2006, 02:16 PM

Individual stats none. Cumulative team stats always. Especially run data.....I love run data.

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EBone · 07-10-2006, 02:17 PM

But don't listen to me. I'm -9 units for the year.

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pags11 · 07-11-2006, 01:43 AM

stats are one of many things I use in capping games...I think one should definitely look at them, but not use them as their sole reason for capping the game...

Mudcat · 07-11-2006, 10:49 AM

My capping is 100% stats based. But I might not be talking about the same kind of stats as you.

Example of the kind of stat I use: according to my research, NFL dogs of 10 or more points cover the spread more than 56% of the time. I only need to pick about 51% winners to break even so I (almost always) bet those dogs based on that stat. I don't need any individual stats - I don't even need to know the name of a single player on either team - I don't think about streaks - I just bet based on the stat.

RickySteve · 07-11-2006, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mudcat

My capping is 100% stats based. But I might not be talking about the same kind of stats as you.

Example of the kind of stat I use: according to my research, NFL dogs of 10 or more points cover the spread more than 56% of the time. I only need to pick about 51% winners to break even so I (almost always) bet those dogs based on that stat. I don't need any individual stats - I don't even need to know the name of a single player on either team - I don't think about streaks - I just bet based on the stat.

You must have had a hell of a run last season.

Mudcat · 07-11-2006, 03:33 PM

I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic RickySteve but, between that angle I mentioned and a few others I use, last NFL season was one of the worst I can remember. It started off horribly and didn't recover and get into a profit situation until well into the second half.

NFL is very minor for me though.

mad · 07-11-2006, 03:46 PM

I use stats to tell a story, as part of the overall picture within the context of the game that was, or is yet to be played. For example, it helps me to define a particular teams playing style, useful for future comparisons and analysis. So for me, stats are a must.

EBone · 07-11-2006, 03:48 PM

"Damn it Monsta', i aint givin' you no treefiddy!"

HA! I just now noticed that. Funny stuff. Chef aint no joke!

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