[pico]

Originally Posted by Nicky Santoro

paver,

like i said earlier, you will eventually lose it all again.. that is 100% certain.. if you want to have a chance at coming up ahead, you actually do have a chance..

all you have to do is make sure you always get the best possible #.. for example, Pinnacle has a line at -800/+600.. you can't write down +600 and expect to win.. if you can consistently shop around and write +700 on those (which matchy does have), then you will end up a winner.. but don't just write down the real price, or you lose.. you have to always get a better # than the current line, and you will take home the money in the long haul..

Very simple. think of it as this way. When you bet a game, who always has better line than you? ...the books. Books always win, so if you can get a better line than posted, how can you possibly lose?

Nicky, am i dead on?

[onthewhat]

I think Nicky should make a vid with a detailed analysis of the philosophy

[SlickFazzer]

Shop lines, don't gamble.

[Nicky Santoro]

as you wrote this thread, i was posting elsewhere here, but this is what i wrote, so i will post it here.





I never handicap the game.. i just handicap the line.

doesn't matter who's playing who and whose record is what at home or on road..etc.. the line is already applied..

if an NBA line closes at -6... you better make sure you bet the fav at -5 or the dog at +7, either one will do.. or you will eventually go broke.

my 3 betting strategies..

1- play off numbers
2- play off numbers
3- play off numbers..

oh i forgot another one..

4- play off numbers.

[TPowell]

I can't wait to this shit cracks like Van de Velde under pressure. I'd advise learning to handicap ace

[blittydeuce]

Originally Posted by TPowell

I can't wait to this shit cracks like Van de Velde under pressure. I'd advise learning to handicap ace

Nicky's a millionaire legend pal

[Nicky Santoro]

T,

i couldn't even name you one player in any college sport.. i can only name about 12 guys in the nfl.. and i can name about 24 guys in the nba.. i dont know any players.. i can't handicap..

when i look at a game, i only look at the lines.. in sports, the more you know, the less successful you are.. in sports gambling, to be successful, all you have to do is know numbers and %'s, and the feel of line movements...etc.. it has nothing to do with knowing sports.. in fact, knowing sports hurts you more in gambling than it does help you.

[boys/heels fan]

I want help learning to more accurately handicap games. Please pm me with advice and info.

[mmike032]

Nicky, when you see the opening lines do you already have a feel of where the line will move and bet accordingly. or do you wait and see which way the first movemnet goes and than decide.
or am I totally off base here?

[Nicky Santoro]

Originally Posted by mmike032

Nicky, when you see the opening lines do you already have a feel of where the line will move and bet accordingly. or do you wait and see which way the first movemnet goes and than decide.
or am I totally off base here?

for hockey i can do this.. but for college sports and NFL and NBA, it's tougher.. i have a few guys in the States who feed me with phone calls when a play comes in and i put it in immediately before line changes.

[jjgold]

Nicky is by far the sharpest gambling poster here, this guy also is good at knowing where lines are going to move. We all need to learn from this genius.

[pokernut9999]

Like when Florida opened at 8 and closed at 10, you take BAMA and oops you lose.

[Nicky Santoro]

Originally Posted by jjgold

Nicky is by far the sharpest gambling poster here, this guy also is good at knowing where lines are going to move. We all need to learn from this genius.

JJ, you know this is going to cause a stir with those same 5 posters..jj, you are making eveyrone hate me here.. just like you did at MW.. remember you used to say same about me at MW? lol

and i am NOT the sharpest here.

[pokernut9999]

Last year I tracked college football for about 8 weeks where the lines moved 3 or more points. There was no edge at all as the games went 50/50.

[mmike032]

Originally Posted by pokernut9999

Last year I tracked college football for about 8 weeks where the lines moved 3 or more points. There was no edge at all as the games went 50/50.

is 8 weeks really a big enough sample size to come to a conclusion though. i would have to say no

[pokernut9999]

Originally Posted by mmike032

is 8 weeks really a big enough sample size to come to a conclusion though. i would have to say no

I still look at it and have never seen an edge there.


You can still get the best numbers every week and get your clock cleaned.


Now what he says about Matchbook is correct because you will lose less with numbers less than -110 than the normal -110.

Just once let someone post the plays with the best numbers and we will see. Easy to preach it without ever showing any facts.

[fiveteamer]

guys, Nicky has forgotten more about this shit than you will probably ever know.

to not disagree with him.

[pokernut9999]

Originally Posted by fiveteamer

guys, Nicky has forgotten more about this shit than you will probably ever know.

to not disagree with him.

OK I took GS +3 tonight Line is now GS -1



LOCK CITY


Back up the trucks boys, baby getting new shoes.

[pico]

nicky, do you agree or disagree with this following statement:

closing odds (of ml) = public perception consensus on the probability of the win %

so if the closing odds for the Colts is -100, it is the same as saying public consensus for Colts to win is 50%.

so if the closing odds for Tamps is +165, it is the same as saying public consensus for Tampa to win is 37.74%

[pico]

not counting the vig

[TPowell]

lol I hear slurping, everybody please back away

[TPowell]

oh btw, I think most people here can beat hockey by looking at the line movement

[Nicky Santoro]

pico, for sure.

and you are right about this.. if line is -140/+120 and you have dog at +140, you are now the bookie because it would be like being a bookie and your customers are betting -140 into you..


pokernut,

you have GS +3 and line is GS -1?? wow.. i'll tell you something, it is no lock at all of course, however, if you have games like this everyday, you will soon be living on an island in the Carribbean with 3 maids, 2 butlers, a chauffeur and 4 million dollar mansion by the oceanfront, lots of cash and 8 babes.. 4 in each arm around the clock..... talk about a moneymaker..

[pokernut9999]

Originally Posted by Nicky Santoro

pico, for sure.

and you are right about this.. if line is -140/+120 and you have dog at +140, you are now the bookie because it would be like being a bookie and your customers are betting -140 into you..


pokernut,

you have GS +3 and line is GS -1?? wow.. i'll tell you something, it is no lock at all of course, however, if you have games like this everyday, you will soon be living on an island in the Carribbean with 3 maids, 2 butlers, a chauffeur and 4 million dollar mansion by the oceanfront, lots of cash and 8 babes.. 4 in each arm around the clock..... talk about a moneymaker..

I know nothing about the NBA , just saw that GS has lost 9 in a row and 2 starters may be out


But hey I got the best number

[Kaps]

just like tonight memphis will probably lose to houston but i just got a money line play on memphis at +290 just before it moved now its down to 240

[donjuan]

I can't wait to this shit cracks like Van de Velde under pressure. I'd advise learning to handicap ace

Nicky is dead on here and you are a tard. That said, line shopping is certainly not the only way to beat sports betting.

[TPowell]

**** off soccer fuk, I do just fine bud

[donjuan]

**** off soccer fuk, I do just fine bud

Soccer?

[Matt Rain]

Originally Posted by Nicky Santoro

i am NOT the sharpest here.

Who is?

[Nicky Santoro]

I was just pretending to be modest...I didn't want to look like i had a big head.. (just kidding)

no but seriously, alot of people talk highly of this ganch guy.. i dont know him that well but i know he's good in math and people look up to him.. but just because you're good in math does not mean you are a winner in gambling.. i know math professors at Concordia University here who are incredible geniuses and they come to my gym and we meet in the sauna, me and 3 math professors and i talk #'s with them from gambling... and they have no clue what i am talking about, but they can tell you about theory of relativity or whatever language they say.. pure geniuses, but don't know how to beat a # in gambling or what a theoretical hold is, or how often a # lands on 4 in the NFL, etc...

being a math genius has about 10% to do with being a winning gambler.. you have to have that gambling sense and gambling street smarts..

and the the other guy is Justin... only because he keeps saying how he wins in gambling every year..

those are 2 i know..

[pokernut9999]

People look up to me all the time !!!!!









Because I am 6'7"

[SlickFazzer]

One thing I've learned over the years about Forums. Not 100%, but often times guys that are posting picks all the time are losing their ass, while the winning bettors do not post their plays, or very rarely. Again, not 100% the case....but you can understand my point.

[Nicky Santoro]

Originally Posted by SlickFazzer

One thing I've learned over the years about Forums. Not 100%, but often times guys that are posting picks all the time are losing their ass, while the winning bettors do not post their plays, or very rarely. Again, not 100% the case....but you can understand my point.

slicker, interesting observation.. i also notice it's kids.. alot of kids or attention seekers, who like to get patted on their shoulders when they win.. makes them feel good about themselves. sorry to say this.. But the sharp gamblers know no one can predicit one game, it's one freakin game, anything can happen.. also, the sharpies are working on their games, studying lines, #'s, looking at some info, etc... they have no time to go post picks all day.. i can think of 13 sharpies off the top of my mind right now as i type, and you know what, not one.. that's right... not one.... posts picks....

[mmike032]

Originally Posted by SlickFazzer

One thing I've learned over the years about Forums. Not 100%, but often times guys that are posting picks all the time are losing their ass, while the winning bettors do not post their plays, or very rarely. Again, not 100% the case....but you can understand my point.

[TPowell]

maybe but that says more about confidence than anything else. I'm as close to a NCAAB sharp as anybody else here IMO. I'm always looking at tommorows lines before the games today start