[SlicWilly3]

I'm loving Alabama here fella's.
The public has been all over Florida the last month or so....And rightfully so. They have been blowing everyone out.
But this game is on a neutral site and I believe Saban will have his boys ready. He always seems to have them ready for big games. This is the best team Florida has faced all year....Plus Percy Harvin is not 100% healthy.
This is going to be one of the best games of the year....Very much looking forward to this one.
Florida has won and covered the spread in their last 7 games!
Alabama has won and covered the spread in their last 5 games!
Weather won't be an issue for either team in this one either.
My gut is just telling me Alabama covers and most likely wins.
What does everyone else think about this game?

[JRS21386]

Alabama...

[bama2222]

Roll Tide. Bama wins SU by 8

[BamaBill67]

What is the ML? I am not seeing one at my book.

[fiveteamer]

lol, Bama guys.

[wannabet]

I'll guess ml is +270.Don't know if they have it up anywhere yet, but was thinking I'd play that if it's enticing on Sat..

[football323]

Slic,

Check the betting trends at sportsbook.com. The line opened at fla-10. it has dropped to fla-9.5 despite 66% of the public bets being on fla. This is consistent with the other books i know of, including vegas. this one looks like a big trap to me. normally when the majority of action is on a team the line moves up not down. usually when this happens it means the books feel as if the team getting the most action will not cover. most people think that the books always want even money on both sides, and in most cases that is true. However on a big "public" team like fla in this instance, they wil slant the line too high and then drop it gradually to pull more action in on the team they want the action on. I think you are on the right track, but watch the trends and the line movement. Note the difference in the line movements between the fla/bama game and some of the others!

http://sportsbook.com/sportsbook/tre...portName=ncaaf

[SlicWilly3]

Originally Posted by football323

Slic,

Check the betting trends at sportsbook.com. The line opened at fla-10. it has dropped to fla-9.5 despite 66% of the public bets being on fla. This is consistent with the other books i know of, including vegas. this one looks like a big trap to me. normally when the majority of action is on a team the line moves up not down. usually when this happens it means the books feel as if the team getting the most action will not cover. most people think that the books always want even money on both sides, and in most cases that is true. However on a big "public" team like fla in this instance, they wil slant the line too high and then drop it gradually to pull more action in on the team they want the action on. I think you are on the right track, but watch the trends and the line movement. Note the difference in the line movements between the fla/bama game and some of the others!

http://sportsbook.com/sportsbook/tre...portName=ncaaf

Thanks.... Yeah I often do pay attention to that.....Sometimes I don't....Depends.
This game is just a gut feeling for me.......
At 1st glance I thought Bama is going to pull this one out.

Has anyone ever read the book "Blink" By Malcolm Gladwell?
Excellent book.....He was also the Author of Tipping Point.

He states a simple fact: Decisions made very quickly, at 1st thought, can be every bit as good as decisions made cautiously and deliberately.
Our "unconscious" is a powerful force. Obviously not always correct But more often than not when I go against my initial gut feeling on a game and talk my self into the other team because of stats, etc.....I lose.
I'm sure many out there can relate. That 1st 2 second thought on a game.....We change our mind after looking at stats, etc....I bet most of you out there that have done this lose more often than you win.
I'm sticking with Bama in this one regardless of public betting, I just haven't decided if I am going with the points or taking them Money Line $$$.

[football323]

Money Line is what I am looking at........

Good Luck!

[BamaBill67]

Instead of betting the ML on Bama, why not bet the adjusted line? Wouldn't it be something like Bama +3.5 (+170). You get value and coverage.

[bobby smith]

Imagine your number 1 team in nation...Undefeated and you are the underdogs by that many points?
Nick Saban know how to coach and motivate. He'll defintley let his players know their underdogs in this game.
Alabama is the pick

[pimike]

Originally Posted by BamaBill67

Instead of betting the ML on Bama, why not bet the adjusted line? Wouldn't it be something like Bama +3.5 (+170). You get value and coverage.

nice point