[JRS21386]

It seems as if you aren't that great at it, there are alot of different options to curb the urge to bet???

[pimike]

Like what?

[Richkas]

yes

[JRS21386]

I like a site called wagerline.. Its actually a subsite of covers.com

It keeps track of your record and you can win money week to week

[JRS21386]

Originally Posted by Richkas

yes

How well do you do ?

[bmw530i]

Any given day...you can go from zero to hero and vice versa...
Thats the beauty of this all...but I have to say its nice to let off some steam here at SBR weather you had a good or bad day gambling. From seasoned vets to green peas we all have felt the highest highs and the lowest lows. To have this outlet is priceless..

[JRS21386]

Well here's the thing, Do any of you have a "system" to betting? Or is it more of a gut feeling... I mean in all reality, the linesmen have a HUGE understanding of the game, so what's their edge?

[smitch124]

[frostno98]

Yes, for me college basketball once conference plays starts.

[ipickwinners]

Originally Posted by JRS21386

I like a site called wagerline.. Its actually a subsite of covers.com

It keeps track of your record and you can win money week to week

great site, i play in virturally every contest on here.... also another awsome site is youcapper.com.... sn on uwagger is ipickwinners....ive made $10 on there so far

[durito]

There's quite a few people here that make quite a lot of money doing this. They are fairly easily identified by their knowledge.

[crisp]

just look at the best bet thread. about 20 people that win the others are losers.

[jtuck]

Make money in college baskets, baseball, and early college football. Everything else i touch turns my bankroll to shit.

[Justin7]

I've been doing this for 7 years, and full time for 4 years. ROI for a 12 month period averages out to about 100%/year.

[durito]

Originally Posted by Justin7

I've been doing this for 7 years, and full time for 4 years. ROI for a 12 month period averages out to about 100%/year.

Do you see diminishing returns as your bankroll gets bigger?

[Justin7]

Originally Posted by durito

Do you see diminishing returns as your bankroll gets bigger?

Definitely.

[MoneySportsGuy]

Justin7

So you cap games for a living now?

[JRS21386]

Wow... Impressive

[bdigg]

Originally Posted by Justin7

I've been doing this for 7 years, and full time for 4 years. ROI for a 12 month period averages out to about 100%/year.

Do you live in the States? If so, what do you plan on doing come 12/1/09?

[JRS21386]

Originally Posted by bdigg

Do you live in the States? If so, what do you plan on doing come 12/1/09?

What is 12/1/09?

[Justin7]

Originally Posted by MoneySportsGuy

Justin7

So you cap games for a living now?

I have for a long time. Mainly football and props, but I have also done a lot in soccer. I also had a disastrous venture into MLB, but I might go at it again this spring.

[MoneySportsGuy]

Justin

How on earth do you cap props? Just curious as think alot of them are so 50/50 but would love to get some insight into getting a better edge in props and also college football if your into capping that.

[durito]

Originally Posted by MoneySportsGuy

Justin

How on earth do you cap props? Just curious as think alot of them are so 50/50 but would love to get some insight into getting a better edge in props and also college football if your into capping that.

Start here:

http://www.amazon.com/Sharp-Sports-B...8097745&sr=8-1

[rm18]

Originally Posted by MoneySportsGuy

Justin

How on earth do you cap props? Just curious as think alot of them are so 50/50 but would love to get some insight into getting a better edge in props and also college football if your into capping that.

Usually a lot more value betting under for yards or points. Also a lot of prop lines are made out of averages instead of medians. Some guys the stats are just too high based on reputation, I bet Hines Ward under yardage every single week it is easy money.

[Justin7]

Originally Posted by MoneySportsGuy

Justin

How on earth do you cap props? Just curious as think alot of them are so 50/50 but would love to get some insight into getting a better edge in props and also college football if your into capping that.

Props are the easiest money offshore if you know how to do them.


In my lifetime, I've held about 8% against props, and that's betting anything and everything I think I have any edge. If you're discriminating, you can hold even more.

[Justin7]

Originally Posted by rm18

Usually a lot more value betting under for yards or points. Also a lot of prop lines are made out of averages instead of medians. Some guys the stats are just too high based on reputation, I bet Hines Ward under yardage every single week it is easy money.

Right on.

Most of the value is on "what will make this game boring?" Every Superbowl, I'm rooting for a 3-0 game with lots of punts and nothing else.

[fiveteamer]

guy, youve got a hairy chest.

[durito]

If you can find props like:

Will player X score a TD?
Will player Y have an INT?

The NO has value a lot of the time.

[fiveteamer]

Isn't this called fantasy football?

[MoneySportsGuy]

Originally Posted by durito

If you can find props like:

Will player X score a TD?
Will player Y have an INT?

The NO has value a lot of the time.

why do you say NO has alot of value? I mean I wonder over a season if you just did all those prop bets and said NO, how much winning percentage would be?

[JRS21386]

Originally Posted by Justin7

Right on.

Most of the value is on "what will make this game boring?" Every Superbowl, I'm rooting for a 3-0 game with lots of punts and nothing else.

Any other methods you use for stuff other than props? Or how would you do props in other sports? And you make your entire living off this?

[durito]

There are lots of ways to evaluate props. Read the chapter on using the Poisson distribution in Sharp Sports Betting that I linked above.

Get a database. Lot of props are O/U certain events. Use your database to see how often it has happened in the past.

Be aware of betting lots of correlated props. If your #'s like one QB in a matchup vs another, you will probably also like that teams WR match ups. It's OK to bet correlated props, but know what you are doing. It's better to find props that are negatively correlated.

If you look hard, you can find hundreds of props with value per week. For smaller bankrolls (under $100,000) props should be one of your main earners.

[JRS21386]

Nice...

[MoneySportsGuy]

I am going to have to try this didnt think you could really make much on props but worth a shot

[RogueJuror]

Originally Posted by durito

For smaller bankrolls (under $100,000) props should be one of your main earners.

Yes, very wise.

In soccer, for big international tournaments (World Cup, Euro Cup, Qualifiers), look for Totals on Fouls and Totals on Offside.

$$