[JoeH08]

Hi all,

Im just getting started with online sports betting and am looking to get some opinions and hopefully avoid any rookie mistakes.

I have some money spare this year and I thought about putting it into savings but decided I would give sports betting a go, I have been doing quite alot of research before starting and there are some things im confused about, if anyone could shed some light it would be much appreciated.

Firstly I wont be handicapping games myself, instead I have been looking for a good handicapping service to join, the problem is choosing the right one, I see most services rate plays in units, most of them 1 to 5 units but then I see some which range from 1 to 50 units, the thing is if a 50 unit play is the biggest your willing to bet that would make the 1 unit plays hardly worth bothering with, should I avoid these places with Big Plays, they look like they have good records but it seems very risky, im a patient person so im happy with more steady long term results.

The other thing is that every single handicapping service states they are the number 1 capper, im sure there is alot of crap information out there, does anyone know of a legit sports capper monitor that keeps track of cappers real performance.

Lastly if I went with a capping service which rates plays 1-5 and I start with say a $100 bankroll would it be wise to make them $1-$5 plays based on the percent of the bankroll or do you think 5% on one play is too high.

Any help will be much appreciated

Many thanks

Joe H

[Chi_archie]

a) don't start gambling unless it is small and for fun...
b) don't use any services

[bigboydan]

First off, Welcome to the SBR forum

Your first mistake would be picking/hiring a tout sir.

[wild willy]

The Boys Hear Are Free And A Lot Guys Know Their Shit Unfourtnaly I'm Not One Of Them Lol

[St. Andrew]

If you've only got $100 why are you even looking at a sports service?

[JoeH08]

Originally Posted by St. Andrew

If you've only got $100 why are you even looking at a sports service?

Hi,

Thats not the amount I have available for my bankroll, was just using it as an example regarding wager sizes.

[Justin7]

If you're going to try, it's smart to start small. If you're good, it will slowly grow.

[JoeH08]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

First off, Welcome to the SBR forum

Your first mistake would be picking/hiring a tout sir.

Thanks

I guess I need to rethink my approach, im glad I have not signed up for anything yet.

[THEGREAT30]

If you have to ask you are probably not making a smart move, or atleast you should wait some weeks after you get all the info you need before starting to make bets. Good luck.

[bigboydan]

Here is an oldie but a goodie about buying service selections.

<h1 class="sbrTitles">What you need to know about a Tout</h1>
<p><font style="font-size: 7pt;" color="#808080" face="Arial">You have permission to publish this article electronically or in print, free of charge, as long as the signature box is included.</font></p>
<br><span class="Article_PostedBy">Posted on <span class="dateCreated">Wednesday, April 28, 2004 (CST)</span></span> <br><span class="mainbox">
<p>By: Bill Dozer, SBR Analyst<br>© 2004 All rights reserved<br></p>
<p><strong>Definition of Tout (noun)</strong><br>1. Someone who solicits customers, votes or patronage, in an especially brazen way. <br>2. Someone who buys tickets to an event in order to resell them at a profit.<br>3. Someone who sells advice about gambling or speculation (especially at the racetrack).</p>

<p><strong>The Pitch</strong></p>
<p>Joe Tout is a perfect 17-0 on Sunday afternoon NFL games that are played on turf when there is going to be a full moon on days when he has eaten Cheerios for breakfast. Don’t miss out on this amazing can’t lose Play! This 42 star game is only 200 dollars but you only pay if you win! Most of us have seen these salesmen offering their picks. You have to give them credit because some of them are damn good sellers. By the time you are done reading one of their pitches, like the above dramatization, you almost forget everything you know about probabilities and the reason a handicapper claiming to pick 75% doesn’t own the world. Ideally, when we are handed a turd in a chocolate wrapper we would smell it before we bite. Unfortunately for some of us we have to learn the hard way leaving the experience with a bad taste in their mouths.</p>
<p><strong>Safety in Numbers</strong></p>
<p>One of the reasons a player might get fooled into buying from a tout service is that every capper listed seems to be on a hot streak. Big Charlie is 6-0 on NBA sides while Mark Sparks is hitting 7-0 in hockey totals and Nick Nichols is 17-2 in his last 19 water polo match plays. It appears that the group knows what they are doing and this cannot be luck. </p>
<p>This is because the service or advertiser is moving the “hot” product to the forefront. For every coin I flip that results in heads there will be one that comes up tales. For every scamdicapper that shows you a winning streak there is a losing streak. Most capping services that are gracious enough to keep an honest documented lifetime record will show 48-52% win rate. This means the plays passed on to the player have the same chance of winning yet the record put fourth to the viewers usually tally up to something like an astounding 85%. To me, that is misrepresentation. I don’t expect to see commercials for Kia automobiles doing 130 MPH and I don’t expect handicappers to only show rare recent records. Sure, they may be on a winning streak which happens but means nothing for the following play. <br></p>
<p><strong>Why Sell Picks? </strong></p>
<p>Anyone can sell picks. What product is easier to sell than sports plays? It’s a product with virtually no overhead outside of marketing. There is little risk to the seller’s own wallet and you get to have your picture taken in a sports car, smoking a cigar with girl who somehow thought it was warm enough to wear a bikini on the same day you are wearing a double breasted suit. (Maybe it’s because you’re red hot in your last 13 bowling plays) In all seriousness, you can’t fault people for supplying the demand which brings me to my next question.</p>
<p><strong>Why Do People Buy Picks?</strong></p>
<p>There are many reasons why people buy plays but they are hard to pinpoint on a case-by-case basis. You can usually spot a sucker/victim in the posting forums because their name is next to a topic like: BillDozer? more like BillShitozer!! They are impulse posts which represent the haste they used to hand over their credit card to Joe Tout. You may also have seen a fellow employee mutilating a tout’s picture in a computer paint program. (You always feel bad for those guys since you know their kid will now be attending Northeast Southern Central Community College) Here are some of the reasons people may have taken the bait….<br></p>

<ul>
<li><strong>They are trusting and don’t know what a realistic win rate is.<br></strong>This applies to all salesmen who succeed by misrepresenting their product. Some people do not believe that others would actually take their money for nothing in return. In our case players may not realize yet that if someone claims to be winning 80% in the last 10 they very well may have won 20% on the 10 bets before that.
</li><li><strong>No Confidence in their own plays.<br></strong>There are bettors who need to get down on Monday night football but don’t feel qualified to make a pick. By buying the play it relieves them of the guilt of throwing money around. Win or lose they feel they had a solid angle for the event even though they didn’t actually know what it was.
</li><li><strong>They believe the capper knows something they do not.</strong><br>Many picks advertised are rated by stars. The pick peddlers suggest they know inside information that the rest of the public is not privy to by adding a lot of stars in the description. What else could it mean when a capper has 3 five star plays but also has a 20 star play? That must be the one!! I knew a guy who sold things in the classifieds and every time he listed his product he would list the same thing next to it at half the value. Anyway, Last time I saw 20 stars I was hit in the head and on the ground with my wallet missing. Hmmm….
</li><li><strong>They fall for the image.</strong><br>Believe it or not, the guy with the 200 dollar haircut did not make his money betting on his own 10 star games. Actually, many of the decent cappers I know would rather go to Supercuts and invest 195 dollar back into their bankroll. Being a good salesman is more likely responsible for his riches if they exist. <br>Yes, it is possible that a Vegas legend has someone marketing his plays for him and is actually a profitable handicapper but that poses other problems. If he is now selling his plays, you may wonder if he has given up betting them himself. A player who actually has inside information or is the real deal would move the line with his action. So by the time he tells you to play Team X -6 you would have -7. Line movement is a big reason why advertising a play three days in advance is not realistic. The pick peddler can’t foresee where the line is going in the next couple hours and every half point lost in the long term equates to a loss on your winning percentage.
</li><li><strong>Laziness</strong><br>They would buy high risk mutual funds but they don’t move fast enough. These people just want to invest in something but any leg work is beneath them. They may have enough money to throw around in order to sound smart to friends. They root for the scenario that was suggested when they bought the pick. I have friends like this. They aren’t interested in any in-depth game stats and game scenarios from me but would pay to hear a pick based solely on the weather report at that game. Some people don’t care about odds when everyday is a new day. </li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Recognize what you are investing </strong><br></p>

<p>There is nothing wrong with paying for handicapping tools. I am not saying that buying assistance makes you less of a success. People pay for things like stats, betting line updates and information everyday. If a handicapper is selling detailed write ups with stats and game scenarios that conclude with an opinion on the outcome it may be of value to you. One of the keys to handicapping is assessing which stats and factors apply to each individual event. This person might not apply the same factors as you might but may open your eyes to something of importance. This pick and write-up may be cost effective to buy if the capper regularly digs deep but you should not feel pressured to play a game because you invested in information about it.</p>
<p>In any venture, one should always take into account his overhead to potential return ratio. If you need to win 80% of your plays to be profitable after purchasing the Don Best service you should realize that that investment is not a viable option. If your goal is to obtain a 56% win rate over the course of 100 plays at 10% juice you are looking at a profit of 760 dollars. That hardly leaves any money to spend on each play yet many people who buy picks are small players. Usually the best play is your own.</p>
<p>Take it from someone who can remember defacing Joe’s picture with horns and a goatee!</p>

[jjgold]

This is a set up post

Joe whats your angle here?

[CrazyLou]

Originally Posted by jjgold

This is a set up post

Joe whats your angle here?

I think a video is called for.

[wild willy]

Dont Worry About The Service Check Out Sbr And Find Yourself A A+ Bookmaker Anything Else And It Wont Matter If You Win You Wont See Any Money Anyway I Have Always Used A A+ Book And Never Had Any Problems Thats Where You Start First

[JBC77]

Read, read, read, explore the forums, read.....and then read some more.

[tacomax]

You can usually spot a sucker/victim in the posting forums because their name is next to a topic like: BillDozer? more like BillShitozer!!

That was a classic thread.

[Brock Landers]

Originally Posted by jjgold

This is a set up post

Joe whats your angle here?

its entrapement is it not JJ?

[JoeH08]

Originally Posted by jjgold

This is a set up post

Joe whats your angle here?

Hi, im not sure I have an angle other than trying to get started the right way, looking for advise is all im doing as I have read so much the last few weeks I wanted to make sure I was making the right moves, which it seems I was not.

[sofun]

if you are not a gambler, why should you start gambling now,
stop your idea if you can

[durito]

Read these:

An introduction to betting lines and percentages

An introduction to expectations and theoretical hold

Expected Value vs Expected Growth (Kelly criterion Part I)

Maximizing Expected Growth (Kelly criterion Part II)

[JoeH08]

Thank you bigboydan that was a good read, I think im going to postpone things for the time being, got to think things over and do some more research first.

[JoeH08]

Originally Posted by durito

Read these:

An introduction to betting lines and percentages

An introduction to expectations and theoretical hold

Expected Value vs Expected Growth (Kelly criterion Part I)

Maximizing Expected Growth (Kelly criterion Part II)

Thanks durito, I will give these a good read.

[wild willy]

MY FRIEND
PLEASE take are advice all the guys will tell you this because we all have won big and lost big, you dont sound like a kid and neithier are we, what i think the majority of us are saying in nice way is this is not a good bussiness plan for most people buy the mutual funds and thank us later.

[JoeH08]

Originally Posted by wild willy

MY FRIEND
PLEASE take are advice all the guys will tell you this because we all have won big and lost big, you dont sound like a kid and neithier are we, what i think the majority of us are saying in nice way is this is not a good bussiness plan for most people buy the mutual funds and thank us later.

I understand what your saying, I guess I need to think things over first, I guess making this post was about avoiding rookie mistakes and the best way to do that is to not do anything.

Even so im going to do some more research and maybe put some money in a sportsbook for fun/testing purposes, not anything that would cause headaches if it went pear shaped.

[wild willy]

Fun Is Drinking Beer And Chasing Women

[wal66]

Joe, first welcome. Secondly forget services. Why pay anyone for something they don't have to gaurantee? I don't encourage tailing but there are forum boards where real talented knowledgable cappers can give valuable insight on games. Spend a couple of weeks watching the posters and learn who is better at what. Some may be better in certain sports others may be better in particular conferences. Learn the posters, in time you will learn who actually knows the ins and outs and who is just on a streak. You'll also learn who is just pretending. I said I didn't believe in tailing and I meant that. Once you've gotten a feel for which posters are which I still recommend looking into anything you like on your own. Not so much because you know more than the poster on that game but more importantly to try and better understand why that poster is on a play. You're going to have posters that are into trends and may do good with them. You'll have posters that are strickly into Dogs and does good with them. You'll have posters that are into line movements. The more you research these things at first the more you'll be confused but in time if you do the work and apply what you learn you'll eventually be able to dedcide what type of capper you're best suited to be.

If you're completely new to this then there are several things you'll need to learn right away. You've already mentioned bankrolls. Money management is the absolute #1 concept you'll need to get a grasp on. Not making money on a weekend is common but going broke on a weekend should not be. There are no gaurantees in this and just starting out it would be wise to keep all wagers of the same amount. WE ALL make the mistake of thinking this game is better than that game and thus wager more on it. That is a bad habbit to get into. Every game should be treated as the same. If you're playing one game that you feel less strongly about than another then you're not treating every dollar the same.

Another evil is sometimes harder to avoid than wagering different amounts on games. That evil is parlays. We all have done them we all do them but they are not good bets. They hold the strike it rich quick concept that come with a price. No need to go into all the evils of these types of wagers because you'll learn like we all have.............the hard way.

I tell everyone I know that if you are going to do this you need to understand how to be OBJECTIVE and train yourself not to be SUBJECTIVE. The more objective the capper the sooner this will become Sports Investing. The more subjective the capper the more often he'll be reloading.

I almost left out a very important lesson we have all experienced and some have learned. SET A LIMIT. Doesn't matter what that limit is, if you reach that limit call it quits for that season.

I have rambled enough. This doesn't even begin to tell you all the things to adjust to of watch out for but it should be a start.

[etothep]

My first piece of advice would be to only bet what you can afford to lose

[St. Andrew]

Play all the threads that say "lock". You'll win big that way.

[JoeH08]

Thanks everyone, you've provided me with alot of good information, I will definetely hold off parting with any money for the time being until im more prepared.

[jjgold]

Joe for you

[JoeH08]

Originally Posted by jjgold

Joe for you

Hey JJGold, I get what your saying, the net is full of scammers which is the reason I came here to get some opinions from people who know better than I do.

Im not a scammer, im just someone who is dubious of all the advertisements i've been seeing for sports investment and came here for some pointers.

I have been getting into US sports alot the previous two years, being from England (Southampton) and learning, getting into US sports has been alot of fun for me and I follow the NBA and NFL more now than I do UK Football (Soccer), so this to me is partly an extension of learning the games and putting some spare money into it was something that I just felt like doing, however im not someone to rush into things, I have been reading up on handicapping services and reading forums before parting with my money, im glad I did as some of you have provided some good information.

Joe

[Nicky Santoro]

hey joseph, you want advice, i'll give you advice. DON'T GAMBLE.don't start..stay where you are and don't ruin your life. if you start gambling,it will be the worse decision of your life. what you are doing here is no different than going to a drug forum and asking posters on which is the best crack to take and where to get the crack cause you want to start it.... it's a ****in addiction, kid..

STAY OUT.. it will be the worse move of your life if you start gambling.. it will ruin your life, Joey..

[Brock Landers]

tail my picks joe, hit my college play of the year saturday, the guys will vouch for me. Jump aboard pal and start with OREGON in college hoops tonight, already 2-0 documented on the day

JJ, what the fuk are you on tonight? LOL

[laxdjock]

1. Only gamble with money you are willing to lose (never use it as a way to "make" money)
2. Never use a service. Read the forum here, and follow the good cappers. The good guys will track their records and often have a spreadsheet.
3. You have the right idea about only betting a small % of money at a time, though you may need a higher threshold than $100...because of deposit costs, etc. $250 is usually the minimum amount that books will cover fees for.
4. Set parameters BEFORE you start betting (Max $ per bet, Max $ per day, etc)...this is huge for money management, and it helps cut down on chasing losses.
5. Read, read, and read some more.
6. Be VERY wary of people selling info, pushing too hard on 1 side, etc.
7. Don't fall for the *LOCK, OMG!!!* people, they tend to be wrong. A lot.

I am just a hobbyist, though I try and post my thoughts on my picks.

[RogueJuror]

Don't listen to that crap joey, live your dream and give it a try. You only live once. And if you really applied yourself you can actually earn from it. Read what durito posted and go from there.

[krk1030]

Dont use a service. Aside from the fact most sucks and are scumbags. It doesnt seem like you will be betting enough to make a $1000 or more service worth it.