[Cloak & Dagger]

Originally Posted by mtneer1212

I can definitely attest to coolers at the racetrack. Nothing like the field turning from home, and your horse takes the lead as they enter the stretch, and some bozo with a $2 show bet yells, "C'mon Number 4", which of course happens to be your horse. Suddenly the feet get heavy and the legs get weary and he is passed by two horses at the wire. You look at the guy and want to strangle him, and then this clown says "I'm glad I bet him to show. Whew."

ARRRRGGGGHHHH

what about the guys yelling at the top of their lungs for the horse that has no shot

and it just happens to be the horse you bet

[MonkeyF0cker]

You admit that long term gambling equates to simple mathematics and that there is some luck involved short term. What you fail to comprehend is that +EV/G gamblers play long term to remove any short term luck. If I flop a 15 outer against another player and get my money all in at that point, I'm a 54% favorite to win the hand. I'm certainly not going to win it every time. However, if I do that 100,000 times, I should win very close to 54,000 times and lose 46,000. It is all about long term returns. When you play craps or blackjack (without an effective counting strategy) against the house, you are essentially on the long term losing side of that same type of situation and will certainly end up losing in the long term if you play the game long enough to eliminate the effects of short term luck. This is why casinos don't need to cheat and don't have to rely on voodoo magic to profit.

[pico]

hell yeah. the ****ing pit boss is the cooler. everytime i make a big bet, she ask the dealer to shuffle the cards.

[IronMan]

if the game in question is a game where someone shuffles the cards then it is simply all about THE SHUFFLE in how the cards will come out . is this luck ? pretty much .
is it luck when someone runs people out of a hand by betting big or checking to make it seem he has nothing ? no , that is skill and calculation , anticipating .
these are skills , but is still all about the shuffle in what is created in any hand more times than not . is this luck ? if the deck is set in how they shuffle no .
anyone know if the deck was stacked or shuffled a certain way to create the chaos of 3 or 4 players having something good in that hand ? i guess only the game organizers or the dealer could tell you .

is it luck when someone misses a fg or someone makes a fg to give a a win or lose ?
is all chance , is chance luck ? pretty much yes .

[Nicky Santoro]

Originally Posted by Patrick McIrish

Each spin is an independant event Cloak. Absolutely the 11th spin will be the same as the first, both red and black have identical chances of coming up. I'm not trying to be an ass, I have no horse in this race, just telling you so you'll understand. Now if someone wanted to bet you ahead of time that the red will come up 11 spins in a row that is a horse of another color. But after 10 spins the odds are the same for red and black regardless of what has come before. Does that make sense? Assuming the wheel is clean the past has no bearing on the future.

This reminds me of a bet once on MajorWager, Nicky took some guys money on this exact concept. You around Nicky? You remember that? The guy just could not understand how the odds on the 3rd roll were the same as the first spin. I think the bet was if 35 came up twice in a row, what was the odds of 35 coming up a 3rd time. If the bet was 35 coming up 3 times in a row before the first spin, the other guy would have been right, the odds were very big against it. But on the 3rd spin the 35 is no less or more likely to show up than it was on the 1st spin, or any other spin for that matter. Anyway I don't want to get in a pissing match, I just think some of even the more basic stuff might be hard to grasp if all this is brand new to you. No shame in learning something on these forums.


PS - you are right as far as I'm concerned about short term luck. We used to take a poker cruise that lasted 4 hours and it sucked to see the worst player at the table win all the money. If he was stranded on a desert island he would lose every cent he had, but in a 4 hour cruise you are right, there is a lot of luck involved.

i just saw this now.. patty, what a memory you have.. it was the poster Great White Wolf.. how do you remember that? wow.. that was back in 2001.. and he never posted again after that.. he actually paid me the money for the bet, too..

[Patrick McIrish]

Originally Posted by Nicky Santoro

i just saw this now.. patty, what a memory you have.. it was the poster Great White Wolf.. how do you remember that? wow.. that was back in 2001.. and he never posted again after that.. he actually paid me the money for the bet, too..

I forget very little, my head is full of useless stuff. That thing went on for days! I actually tried to save the guy some money but he would not hear of it. Amazing how hardheaded someone gets if they get something in their mind. That's why threads like this are basically like pissing in the wind, people believe what they want to believe and you had better not try to educate them in any way. For some reason it's hard for me to not want to try and help.