[TLD]

Thought I’d toss this out in case it’s helpful to anyone deciding where to post up for baseball.

I was looking through my records to see where I’ve mostly been placing my bets this season, and I ended up writing up a list.

I’ve been funded at about twenty books at any given time this season. I’ve placed at least one baseball bet 41 days. I’ve bet sides, run lines, and totals. Rarely if ever props, parlays or anything else. Some substantive bets, some middling/scalping. Usually the day of the game; only occasionally overnights. Only rarely influenced by bonus considerations. I’ll “break a tie” by betting where I need rollover if two or more books have the same line, and I’ll play a break even scalp that I’d otherwise skip, but 1% of the time or less am I for any reason placing a bet at a worse number than is available at another of my funded books.

So if I bet it somewhere, that’s where it was the best, or at least tied.

Anyway, here’s a list of how many of those 41 days I’ve placed at least one bet at each book—an admittedly crude but still hopefully relevant measure of how often one will find the best lines there:

Mansion: 41
Matchbook: 37
SIA: 37
Pinnacle: 35
Sportingbet group: 28
ABC Islands: 20
WSEX: 18
5 Dimes: 16
Canbet: 16
VIP group: 13
Actionbets: 10
Bet Jamaica: 10
Bodog: 10
Intertops: 10*
Olympic: 8
CRIS: 7
Trojan: 6
BetBBB: 4
Skybook: 2**
Hollywood: 1***

*Only funded about half the time, so this number should be roughly doubled to get a better idea of their value for line shopping.

**Only funded the first few days of the season, so this number should be at least a little higher.

***Only funded the first few days of the season, so this number should be at least a little higher. However they’re now presumably going to be using Sportingbet lines, so this data is no longer relevant anyway.


I knew Mansion would be number one, and Matchbook, Pinnacle, and SIA would be in the next three slots in some order or other. If I just kept those and maybe one from the Sportingbet group I’d have rarely had to settle for a worse line than I got, and even then almost never by more than a penny or two. (If I bet more overnights, I’d add 5 Dimes as the other “must.”) So it’s arguable whether the added labor of shopping all those others is worth it.

I was very surprised to see I’d placed so many bets at ABC, and somewhat surprised at how high Canbet and a couple of others scored. It seems like I never find anything at those places, but apparently they’re at least tied for the best line reasonably often.

Again, just thought this might help some people interested in finding decent books for baseball line shopping. Or for that matter, maybe others could help me by pointing out books not listed here that you’ve found to be a “must” for baseball.

[BuddyBear]

thanks....great post TLD.

I consider line shopping to be one of the two most important things a sports gambler can do. It seems laborious to have so many books and your friends may tease you but when the margin between winning and losing is razor thin you have some piece of mind that you got the best possible line (or at least made the effort to).

[rolemand]

Originally Posted by BuddyBear

I consider line shopping to be one of the two most important things a sports gambler can do.

What's the other Buddy?


I agree great post TLD. Interesting to see the variety of books you have and interesting to note the ommission of some that are advertised at the top of the page.

[BuddyBear]

I would say that the other is understanding line value and line movement...that's really the only way you can beat the books (at least for basketballand football...baseball is a different animal).

There are other important things as well that are similarly important like understanding why reduced juice is so important and money management skills and not chasing...but I consider these secondary goals for a sports bettor....but a good sports bettor will master them all...

feel free to send me a pm and we can talk in the future...

[rolemand]

Thanks Buddy. I thought you were going to say research, research, research.

That's good info.

[BuddyBear]

nah...you can do all the research you want but everything is accounted for in the line when all is said and done. The linesmakers know everything...they know more than coaches know about their own teams....

Best thing is to understand line movement/value....only way to beat the books. Anyone who thinks they can wake up in the morning and look at the board and pick winners consistently is full of shit or in a class by themselves.....

[Mudcat]

Thanks for posting TLD. I appreciate you taking the time. Very interesting to compare notes.

[TLD]

Thanks Mudcat.

The biggest change for me in the last year or so is how those two exchanges have become such key outs.

BuddyBear, I respect your opinion but disagree. I would say handicapping line movement is merely one of many ways to gain an edge. I’ve made much more money in my career on substantive bets—comparing where the best line is currently with what I anticipate happening in the actual event—than anything related to comparing where the line is to where it was or where I think it’s going or what’s causing it to move, etc.

Especially when you consider lower profile sports, oddball bet types, props, etc., it’s simply not the case that everything is already factored into the line, that the books know everything, etc. In my opinion anyway.

Can a “fan” win by just looking at the lines and making picks with his gut? No. Can a skilled handicapper win by using currently available lines and not taking into account line histories? Absolutely.

[tacomax]

Originally Posted by TLD

I would say handicapping line movement is merely one of many ways to gain an edge. I’ve made much more money in my career on substantive bets—comparing where the best line is currently with what I anticipate happening in the actual event—than anything related to comparing where the line is to where it was or where I think it’s going or what’s causing it to move, etc.

Especially when you consider lower profile sports, oddball bet types, props, etc., it’s simply not the case that everything is already factored into the line, that the books know everything, etc. In my opinion anyway.

Someone knows what he's talking about.

He who thinks the bookie knows everything, knows nothing.

[BuddyBear]

Originally Posted by TLD

BuddyBear, I respect your opinion but disagree. I would say handicapping line movement is merely one of many ways to gain an edge. I’ve made much more money in my career on substantive bets—comparing where the best line is currently with what I anticipate happening in the actual event—than anything related to comparing where the line is to where it was or where I think it’s going or what’s causing it to move, etc.

Especially when you consider lower profile sports, oddball bet types, props, etc., it’s simply not the case that everything is already factored into the line, that the books know everything, etc. In my opinion anyway.

Can a “fan” win by just looking at the lines and making picks with his gut? No. Can a skilled handicapper win by using currently available lines and not taking into account line histories? Absolutely.

I think there is some misunderstanding...you don't "handicap" line movement per se, you act on line movement. I have certain expectations as to which way I expect the line to move but rarely if ever act on my intution...the only way I make plays is to see line movement is inconsistent with what one would expect...i also look for line value (i.e. a game opens up -4 but now it's at ++6.5 let's say...there is a lot of value on that type of bet...)

I’ve made much more money in my career on substantive bets—comparing where the best line is currently with what I anticipate happening in the actual event—than anything related to comparing where the line is to where it was or where I think it’s going or what’s causing it to move, etc.

Now this statement is a little bit confusing...basically you are telling us that you can predict the future and that you can do it with a high amount of accuracy...sorry dude nobody can "anticipate" what is going to happen in a game on a consistent basis...I think maybe you mean something else but I can't believe you would suggest that you can predict the future of the way games are going to turn out....just not possible.

I dont' know much about some of the more obscure sports and their lines as admittedly I am only baskets and foots and occasionally I'll dabble in bases--all of which are sides-- but I'll take your word on there being some value for those who have strong knowledge on the sport....

[BuddyBear]

Originally Posted by tacomax

Someone knows what he's talking about.

He who thinks the bookie knows everything, knows nothing.

Sorry Taco but the bookie knows more than you and I will ever know about a game and the players playing in them.

I know I offend a lot of people when I say bookies dont make mistakes and that lines are not wrong....but it's the truth. If a bookie makes what you perceive to be a mistake...more times than not you better do a double check not the linesmaker...

Handicapping 101: You do not know more than the linesmaker you never have known more and you never will.

[BuddyBear]

also Taco there is a high amount of lying and egos on these fourms...so dont' believe everything you hear on here. I know in general you aren't very smart but I am going to assume that you have figured out that much by now...

Basically if you go around a gaming forum you'll be hard pressed to find someone who admits they lose...sure people will say they got screwed on a game but people rarely admit to losing long term even though the vast majority are going broke. I mean seriously, if everyone is winning who exactly is losing??? Nobody likes to admit that they are the books' bitch but it's the truth...

[TLD]

No problem BuddyBear, we’ll agree to disagree. If interpreting and responding to line movement and line value as you do works for you, then I wish you continued success with it.

[bigboydan]

good stuff and very interesting indeed TLD.

[BuddyBear]

TLD: Am I right to assume that most of your bets with SIA are on underdogs???

[TLD]

Actually I believe well over half of them have been on totals this season. $220 limit, but better than nothing.

[JBC77]

Great post. What I've found is Matchbook and any two standard A rated books with dimelines........about all a man needs.

[LT Profits]

I'd say Matchbook, 5 Dimes (overnight nickel) and one or two dimeline books (BetJam, WSEX and/or DSI)