[topgame85]

Democrat to win white house -390, $4800 open that will give you a profit of about $1200 bucks 25% ROI for a month hold, if you got the cash to put up in Matchy its dumb not to take it

[fiveteamer]

What if Obama is caught with a hooker?

Eh? Then what?

Think about it pal...

[topgame85]

Obama could bang 14 hookers on national TV, claim hes in al-qaeda, and say kill whitey and probably still win as long as the economy keeps plummeting dow down over 300 pts again today

[fiveteamer]

topgame you are crazy.

if Obama is caught with hookers, there is no way he wins.

coke maybe, but hookers no.

[Mudcat]

I don't know. Apparently Sarah Palin is saying things so powerful they are turning Washington on its ear.

Have you taken the Palin's-brilliant-oratory-turning-Washington-on-its-ear factor into account?

[smitch124]

I thought the old political saying was don't get caught with a live boy or a dead girl....

[fiveteamer]

Originally Posted by Mudcat

I don't know. Apparently Sarah Palin is saying things so powerful they are turning Washington on its ear.

Have you taken the Palin's- brilliant-oratory-turning-Washington-on-its-ear factor into account?

LOL

Imagine if her and Don Cherry had a baby?

[topgame85]

He probably does not even have time to fit a hooker in with 28 days to the election, maybe someone could put up a hedge on Matchyodds Obama will be caught with a hooker before election day +3000 yes
-4500 no

[topgame85]

Originally Posted by smitch124

I thought the old political saying was don't get caught with a live boy or a dead girl....

This is true, but in all seriousness 25% roi for 28 day hold on as close to a sure thing as you will ever get is pretty dam good

[durito]

You could have (and i did) taken it at -110 a few weeks ago.

Personally I'd hit McCain at those odds and wait for them to fall a bit and then hit Obama.

[topgame85]

I would not put any money into mccain just because he wont win and the bet is for dem/rep not obama/mccain so if something happens to Obama you could still win if someone else had to step in, and a few weeks ago at -110 was a great bet but now this close to the election with the economy getting torn apart and the new poll numbers -390 is the price you pay for the new info and it all points to Obama is your new presidente

[bettilimbroke999]

Polls have Obama as a 3% advantage, not sure -400 is the complete lock you make it out to be topper, value is probably with the Repubs at those odds, minimum 1 out of 5 times this goes the Repubs way, especially considering Obama is black and is in all likelihood racist. I would say McCain has at least a 20% chance of winning, but certainly the war and the economy swing favor towards the Dems this year but 4/1 favorite I disagree it's that strong. You have to realize all the blacks that they poll prolly 2/3 of em don't vote, then factor in that all the rich Americans that vote Repub every year even if McCain said the first thing he was going to do is complete god's will and nuke the earth, gonna be a tighter election than ppl think I believe.

[Mudcat]

If we are going to be serious, let me say this. It's not exactly the same thing but perhaps it's food for thought.

I recall the night of the Kerry/Bush election, there was betting up all over the place. As early exit polls were released, the odds on Kerry shot up into the -400 range. People were obviously feeling very sure about things.

And I guess we all know what happened.

As I say, not exactly the same thing - but sh1t can happen with chalk in politics as in sports.

[topgame85]

I'm seeing the polls at 8% bettill with 4.5 margin so anywhere between 3.5-12.5 my guess is 8 is prob the real number, this late in the game I just see no chance Dems don't win after tonights debate if Obama beats up on Mccain would be the ideal time to drop the money on him

[smitch124]

Originally Posted by Mudcat

If we are going to be serious, let me say this. It's not exactly the same thing but perhaps it's food for thought.

I recall the night of the Kerry/Bush election, there was betting up all over the place. As early exit polls were released, the odds on Kerry shot up into the -400 range. People were obviously feeling very sure about things.

And I guess we all know what happened.

As I say, not exactly the same thing - but sh1t can happen with chalk in politics as in sports.

I totally remember that, and now with a black candidate how many more people will lie in an exit poll?

Might be some crazy lines this year as well.

[durito]

It's not like $1,200 is all you could make here -- if this is such a lock.

You can get down for hundreds of thousands on this election if you really wanted to.

[bettilimbroke999]

Originally Posted by durito

It's not like $1,200 is all you could make here -- if this is such a lock.

You can get down for hundreds of thousands on this election if you really wanted to.

If I had hundreds of thousands I wouldn't be sweatin $100 bets on games like a paternity test on Maury

[treece]

Betting -400 on a black guy in politics vs a white guy is like betting -400 on a white basketball team vs a black team. In other words not a good bet. Topgame why don't you put your whole bankroll on Obama.

[vanzack]

I got democrat about 2 months ago at -180, and doubled my position about 4 weeks ago at -140 when McCain was peaking in the polls.

I have it for a truckload.

Easy money.

[vanzack]

Originally Posted by Mudcat

If we are going to be serious, let me say this. It's not exactly the same thing but perhaps it's food for thought.

I recall the night of the Kerry/Bush election, there was betting up all over the place. As early exit polls were released, the odds on Kerry shot up into the -400 range. People were obviously feeling very sure about things.

And I guess we all know what happened.

As I say, not exactly the same thing - but sh1t can happen with chalk in politics as in sports.

To date, that election night was my armageddon. I lost more that night than in any single day of my life.

But - as you say - it really was a different thing than now.

I (stupidly in retrospect) bought in to the day of election polls and the medias willingness to declare things before they actually happened - but with this much time for clarity - I feel very good about it.

Anything can happen, but my average position is at -160, and I feel very good about that and could even sell it if things start to shift.

[mmike032]

for all that think the media polls are legit, you are ingnorant. The media will poll a certain group to get the result they want. IE. I seen one poll on FOX at at the bottom in tiny writing it says 500 people were asked the question. How the hell you gonna poll 500 people out of millions and expect to get an accurate poll of the public.

the election will be close, no doubt about it. definatly not easy money

mindless media for mindless sheep

[losturmarbles]

a lot can happen in a month's time, if i were looking to invest money on this, i would take mccain right now at ~+400 and wait until obama takes another hit and wait until he hits ~-200 and hedge out of it.
i seriously think the ceiling on obama can't be more than -450

[vanzack]

Originally Posted by mmike032

for all that think the media polls are legit, you are ingnorant. The media will poll a certain group to get the result they want. IE. I seen one poll on FOX at at the bottom in tiny writing it says 500 people were asked the question. How the hell you gonna poll 500 people out of millions and expect to get an accurate poll of the public.

the election will be close, no doubt about it. definatly not easy money

mindless media for mindless sheep

You obviously have a firm grasp on the science of statistics.

While you are looking at how statistic sampling works, why dont you also google "electoral college" and tell us what you find out about which states are close in the polls and which are not.

[topgame85]

Posted this yesterday now for dem to win prices range from -460 to -640, and just for Obama it is at -490ish the election is all but over take the easy locked up guranteed money if I had the liquidity I would put 100k on him at -500 even to get 20k profit

[onthewhat]

lol, anything can happen in the election

[topgame85]

Originally Posted by losturmarbles

a lot can happen in a month's time, if i were looking to invest money on this, i would take mccain right now at ~+400 and wait until obama takes another hit and wait until he hits ~-200 and hedge out of it.
i seriously think the ceiling on obama can't be more than -450

Ceiling surpassed the election is over get down what you can now for as good of a return as possible

[topgame85]

Originally Posted by onthewhat

lol, anything can happen in the election

Can? yes, hypothetically but desperation has set in and America has just stopped listening to Mccain everyday and debate things get better for obama 26 days until the election it would take a CATASTROPHIC change, and then even it may still be too late for Mcnasty

[Mudcat]

I wouldn't. No way. I've been around too long and seen too much to start tying up my funds on a big chalk future like that. Let's remember we're taking about a country that elected Dubya - to a second term!!! Sorry but that is not an electorate I would count on for anything.

Sh1t can still happen. If you got the dems at -150 or whatever, I would say well done. Otherwise, you missed the boat and should just move on to other betting.

There are plenty of -500 no-way-it-can-lose! bets out there that you don't have to wait that long for.

The current line is not a function of reality. It is a function of squares putting their money down.

Sure, you will probably win - you will always probably win on a -500 bet - but the value is poor.

[BestPlay2day]

Obama at -340 on Bodog now, that's the best line I have seen.

[topgame85]

If bodog didnt have major issues I would go over there, lets be honest here Obama is going to win thiis election and at -9000 it is value just because he bet cant and wont lose

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by BestPlay2day

Obama at -340 on Bodog now

And about -279 at Intrade, making for a rather nice scalp with McCain at +380 at Matchbook.

(All prices quoted before commissions.)

[BestPlay2day]

Got a little bit of money still at Bodog, should just place it all on Obama. However, max bet is only $300.

[durito]

If you have access to betfair, intrade, and matchbook there have been many opportunities to scalp this election.

I have a few positions but don't really want to tie up my entire bankroll until november.

[Ganchrow]

Just for the record, the fivethirtyeight.com's meta-polling is currently forecasting an 89.2% win probability for Obama, implying a fair line of about -826.

If you believe this figure then this would relate to a roughly 20% edge at Intrade.

[WileOut]

Originally Posted by fiveteamer

What if Obama is caught with a hooker?

Eh? Then what?

Think about it pal...

Or what if he is caught with Palestinian funds and being with a racist preacher for 20 years, or, oh well.............lol nevermind.