Now that's my kind of middle

Mudcat · 09-18-2005, 08:32 PM

A few minutes before gametime I picked up,

kc - pick - +100 for 2K
OAK+1 - +100 for 2k

Nothing like a free roll at 2K profit.

Go Chiefs by 1 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

tacomax · 09-18-2005, 08:59 PM

Can't beat a set of picks like that. :thumbs_up

Pedro · 09-18-2005, 09:08 PM

Or you can also cheer for the unlikely tie

Mudcat · 09-18-2005, 09:13 PM

Right you are, Pedro.

Illusion · 09-18-2005, 09:17 PM

Nice one Mud, good luck!!

Ganchrow · 09-18-2005, 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mudcat

kc - pick - +100 for 2K
OAK+1 - +100 for 2k

Very nice.

But, IMHO, as long as one can stand the risk, one might prefer to first decide which side of the market seems to offer the best bargain and then pass on the opposite side. (For example, if Pinnacle, CRIS, Hollywood, Olympic, et. al. were all offering OAK +1 on or aroung evens, and the KC pick at evens were only offered only at, say Skybook, I'd think in general the KC bet alone might be the way to go -- but again, that's only risk tolerance permitting.)

Terris · 09-18-2005, 09:58 PM

Nice arb prolly too if there was a kc -1, but not many bookies offer lines you can change yourself, i think. Was it on pinny? he he

jjgold · 09-19-2005, 06:58 AM

I wonder what odds are on these hitting

Ganchrow · 09-19-2005, 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjgold

I wonder what odds are on these hitting

Right around 2% ...

Mudcat · 09-19-2005, 10:21 AM

The game was never in a realistic position to get too excited about this middle. Oh well - that's the way it goes most of the time. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

I needed some rollover at the one account so I accomplished that anyway.

Bill Dozer · 09-19-2005, 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ganchrow

Very nice.

But, IMHO, as long as one can stand the risk, one might prefer to first decide which side of the market seems to offer the best bargain and then pass on the opposite side. (For example, if Pinnacle, CRIS, Hollywood, Olympic, et. al. were all offering OAK +1 on or aroung evens, and the KC pick at evens were only offered only at, say Skybook, I'd think in general the KC bet alone might be the way to go -- but again, that's only risk tolerance permitting.)

Unless you you are going to play hundreds of these I think Mud's play was the way to go. If you are dealing with a key number like the 3 you could more efficiently identify the better number.

d2bets · 09-19-2005, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjgold

I wonder what odds are on these hitting

Infinitely higher than the price he paid for it.

why · 09-19-2005, 03:20 PM

The only thing it cost him was the time to put the bets in JJ!

I love free middles, especially ones that I can win both sides!

Ganchrow · 09-19-2005, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Dozer

Unless you you are going to play hundreds of these I think Mud's play was the way to go. If you are dealing with a key number like the 3 you could more efficiently identify the better number.

I hear you and do agree to an extent.

This is simply an issue of risk tolerance and as such is determined by preferences. The more averse to risk one is the greater the will be the size of the opposing (negative EV) bet that should be taken. A sufficiently risk tolerant individual won't hedge at all, while a sufficiently risk averse individual will hedge completely. Other individuals will find themselves somewhere along that spectrum (hedging out between 0% and 100% of their risk).

Essentially, there's only a "correct" answer for those at the extremes, i.e., those who are completely risk neutral (for whom no hedge should be made) and those who refuse to accept any risk. The latter category of indiduals of course, are not likely to find their ways here.

Brick Tamland · 09-19-2005, 05:41 PM

but

Giantcrow,

How would you know which team was the right bet? If he is gambling then sure...pick one. But he just had a free try for

and then a night of

and possibly

Brick Tamland · 09-19-2005, 05:43 PM

Well that first dude was supposed to be saying "im confused"

Mudcat · 09-19-2005, 08:59 PM

Yeah I had no capping angle on that game and no idea what line was the bargain (and really no time to think about it). Frankly it's my opinion that everything is pretty much a coinflip the first two weeks of NFL.

I just took the free roll and that's the way I'll do it every time. My straight-up gambling is a totally seperate process which takes place at different dollar levels.

I had a spell around April where I had two similar middles cash in in a 3 day period. One was 6K, the other 2K. I love that feeling.

If you heard a couple of loud hollers coming from the Toronto area around April, that was me.