[Helmut]

Why do you think places like Pinnacle allow you to bet 75K per game and allow you to bet at -104????

All the games played to within a 35-45pt window.

I would say in about 50% of the games it boils down to a judgment call by the referee's that keeps alive a drive on a 3rd down stop, call back on TD or other BS that determines if you win or lose. How the hell you cap this?????

Seems like most games come down to the last drive of the game to determine if you win or lose.

Can't wait for basketball to start so there is other shit to bet on Sundays other than this crap.

[teaserpleaser]

you have been wagering on the chargers right? 2 weeks in row i get slammed by games they should have won. NFL its tough to beat the refs and the other team too

[daggerkobe]

Charger backers were screwed that's for sure.

[Nicky Santoro]

duh..

no one.. i dont care how sharp you are.. will ever beat the NFL.. yes, you might beat them over 7 weeks, or over a 1 or 2 yr span because there are only about 250 games a year, such a small sample size.. but NO WAY in hell you beat the sport over 7-10 seasons, forget it. NFL lines are so fukkin sharp, and the research put into them is so incredible, you have no idea. you think any kid out there is going to be able to predict over these oddsmakers who have every stat humanly possible? these games are all 50-50.. right on the nose.. if there is only 1 sport that can never be beaten, it's the NFL. the others you can win, but NOT the NFL.. forget it. IF YOU DONT BELEIVE ME, CALL UP ANY BOOK AND ASK THEM.. AND THEY WILL SAY WHAT I AM SAYING.. NFL MOST PROFITABLE..DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR, BY A COUNTRY MILE.


when i was booking back in the 90's... if we weren't winning much with NHL, NBA and MLB, it was ok, cause right when NFL rolled around, everyone.. and i mean everyone... went broke by week 15..

NO ONE WINS IN NFL, FORGET ABOUT IT.. LINES ARE TOO FUKKIN SHARP..

BE VERY CAREFUL WITH NFL.. GO LIGHT, TRUST ME..

[LT Profits]

NFL is the toughest pro sport to beat by far.

[daggerkobe]

Toughest?

[durito]

If you want to win in the nfl, play teasers and props.

Don't even think about betting sides late in the week.

[donjuan]

As ever, you can beat it with lineshopping and derivative bets. However, trying to beat widely available closing lines sounds about as fun as burning money.

[pico]

that cleveland game made me start thinking. the spread was pitss -6 to -6.5. pit leading by 7, clev kicked a meanlingless FG for the cover. the right call should be to go for it...not a FG.


there is another NCAA FB game where the underdog needs a FG to cover, they're in the redzone with less than a minute. on the 4th down, they decide to do a practice for a TD and failed rather go for a FG.

these type of crap will drive you nuts if you end up on the wrong side of the game.

[teaserpleaser]

Originally Posted by Nicky Santauro

duh..

no one.. i dont care how sharp you are.. will ever beat the NFL.. yes, you might beat them over 7 weeks, or over a 1 or 2 yr span because there are only about 250 games a year, such a small sample size.. but NO WAY in hell you beat the sport over 7-10 seasons, forget it. NFL lines are so fukkin sharp, and the research put into them is so incredible, you have no idea. you think any kid out there is going to be able to predict over these oddsmakers who have every stat humanly possible? these games are all 50-50.. right on the nose.. if there is only 1 sport that can never be beaten, it's the NFL. the others you can win, but NOT the NFL.. forget it. IF YOU DONT BELEIVE ME, CALL UP ANY BOOK AND ASK THEM.. AND THEY WILL SAY WHAT I AM SAYING.. NFL MOST PROFITABLE..DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR, BY A COUNTRY MILE.


when i was booking back in the 90's... if we weren't winning much with NHL, NBA and MLB, it was ok, cause right when NFL rolled around, everyone.. and i mean everyone... went broke by week 15..

NO ONE WINS IN NFL, FORGET ABOUT IT.. LINES ARE TOO FUKKIN SHARP..

BE VERY CAREFUL WITH NFL.. GO LIGHT, TRUST ME..

I like alot of what your saying and I think you may be right because of the amount of $$$ being bet on NFL... Trust me MLB is a big moneymakers for the bookies run line bets, blown saves, pitchers that dont have their stuff, Errors I monitor the Baseball handicappers page almost daily people are getting hammered over there everyday.

[teaserpleaser]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

NFL is the toughest pro sport to beat by far.

I'd have to say MLB take a look at the MLB handicappers forum people getting slammed everyday because of wind conditions, bad bullpens, guy hits a 3 run homerun to win the game, bad managers decision, bad base running. So many ways to lose in Baseball i know the bookies love it.

[Cloak & Dagger]

well

Ive learned my lesson about betting pick em -1 or +1

I bet yesterday

NO=Loser
NYJ=Loser
DEN=Winner by a fluke

and the other pick em game it looked like MINN had it then right at the end they got snapped

those type of games take years off your life

no more for me....when I see that line in a NFL game...IM SCARED

[bmw530i]

Nicky great post!

[Nicky Santoro]

yes, NFL has way more volume for books than all other sports.

Can you imagine a book like Cris or OLy... on a jets/pats game yesterday.

Lets say they wrote yesterday

78,000 on Jets
68,000 on Pats


If Jets cover, cris and oly lose 3,200
If NE cover, cris and oly win 17,800

so cris and oly won 17,800 yesterday.

that's right, they risked 3,200 to win 17,800.. OR +555..


THAT'S RIGHT BOYS, THE GENERAL PUBLIC LAYS -110 ON THAT GAME, AND THE BOOKS GET +555 ON THAT GAME..

CAN YOU IMAGINE 13 GAMES A DAY LIKE THIS, JUST HOW MUCH THE BOOKS ARE MAKING.. AND YOU WONDER WHY THE PLAYER ALWAYS LOSES, AND THE BOOKS ALWAYS WIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE NFL

[pico]

yeah, better to be the bank than the player

[bmw530i]

Nicky you are a numbers marksman, I love how you can break down a bookies balance sheet.

[pico]

Originally Posted by bmw530i

Nicky you are a numbers marksman, I love how you can break down a bookies balance sheet.

he made those numbers up as an illustration

[pico]

+555 is a dream bet, but that is the just the raw profit. you have to factor in the cost of doing business like, hardware, employees and kickback for police and politicians.

[EaglesPhan36]

Why do people whine about not winning in a certain sport? If you have no success capping a sport, don't bet it. Doesn't mean you can't win. Sheesh.

[Wheell]

Guys, if you are flipping coins (betting with your gut or backing the teams that ESPN is touting), you will lose the vig over the long run. Trying to beat the closing numbers in any sport is difficult. However, with the exception of college football, in no other sport does being get get as rewarded. The people who backed the Cardinals yesterday weren't lucky to win, although they might have been lucky to be on Arizona in the first place.

The truth is that the NFL lines are fairly sharp, but far from unbeatable. That's not to say that YOU can beat them just by reading what people post on the internet or in newspapers or what you see on TV. Like beating any other sport, if you want an edge you need either non-publicly available information or you need the ability to process publicly available information better than the market. Perhaps you understand that certain teams should be weaker in the first half and stronger in the second half relative to the spread due to their style of play (Florida St. 1990's). Perhaps you realize that there is a rock-paper-scissors element to how certain types of schemes match up (Bills-Dolphins early 1990's).

The NFL can be beat. There are simply too many things that the market doesn't fully take into account or correctly value. Again, that doesn't mean a person can beat the NFL in their spare time.

[bleuze]

Peope lose money betting in the NFL because they bet many teams. Instead, you should bet one or two teams only after you've done your homework. Week 1 I bet on the Ravens at +2 and yesterday it was the 49ers at +9 - that's how you make money!

[ertl09]

Originally Posted by bleuze

Peope lose money betting in the NFL because they bet many teams. Instead, you should bet one or two teams only after you've done your homework. Week 1 I bet on the Ravens at +2 and yesterday it was the 49ers at +9 - that's how you make money!

Agreed! If your selective and choose the right game/side you can be sucessful, its those that have to bet 10 games every sunday that end up losing at least 3 or 4, but if you take your best 2 or 3 games you like and end up sweeping them you wouldn't be complaining. Its all about managing your money,for instance, yesterday was a very likely possibility that the pitt/clev. game was going to be low scoring because of the winds. Instead of taking a road team to cover by a TD why not risk your money on the under.

[Panic]

Football season=Bookie christmas.

[Helmut]

Originally Posted by ertl09

Agreed! If your selective and choose the right game/side you can be sucessful, its those that have to bet 10 games every sunday that end up losing at least 3 or 4, but if you take your best 2 or 3 games you like and end up sweeping them you wouldn't be complaining. Its all about managing your money,for instance, yesterday was a very likely possibility that the pitt/clev. game was going to be low scoring because of the winds. Instead of taking a road team to cover by a TD why not risk your money on the under.

I try that kind of shit and it's 50-50.

Took Seattle UNDER yesterday because half their offense is hurt and SF well their SF and guess what 73 points.

WTF????????? I give up.

[SlickFazzer]

Specialize in small conference FB and hoops.

[TLD]

Originally Posted by Wheell

Guys, if you are flipping coins (betting with your gut or backing the teams that ESPN is touting), you will lose the vig over the long run. Trying to beat the closing numbers in any sport is difficult. However, with the exception of college football, in no other sport does being get get as rewarded. The people who backed the Cardinals yesterday weren't lucky to win, although they might have been lucky to be on Arizona in the first place.

The truth is that the NFL lines are fairly sharp, but far from unbeatable. That's not to say that YOU can beat them just by reading what people post on the internet or in newspapers or what you see on TV. Like beating any other sport, if you want an edge you need either non-publicly available information or you need the ability to process publicly available information better than the market. Perhaps you understand that certain teams should be weaker in the first half and stronger in the second half relative to the spread due to their style of play (Florida St. 1990's). Perhaps you realize that there is a rock-paper-scissors element to how certain types of schemes match up (Bills-Dolphins early 1990's).

The NFL can be beat. There are simply too many things that the market doesn't fully take into account or correctly value. Again, that doesn't mean a person can beat the NFL in their spare time.

I agree with this post more than any other in this thread.

I do exactly what you’re not “supposed” to be able to do and win—bet NFL late in the week when I and the rest of the market have had time to crunch all our numbers and have the most information about injuries and such—and I’ve won every season for the last decade. Sometimes not much better than break even, and sometimes more than double what I need to live on per year, but at least I’ve had some level of success and been able to sustain it for a decent period of time.

So I am skeptical that you “can’t win” with such a style of betting, that it’s the equivalent of “burning money,” because the market is all powerful.

However I do not necessarily disagree that had I devoted the identical amount of time and effort and brain cells to some other style of betting (earlier week betting, props, more obscure sports, more sophisticated bonus whoring, whatever), I would have made substantially more money over the years. If I could turn back the clock I probably would have chosen a different path. And it may even make sense for me now to dump what I’ve been doing and start from scratch with another approach. (Though frankly I’m more inclined just to quit outright because I’m so disgusted with the current state of affairs for U.S. residents betting offshore.)

But that’s a lot different from saying it’s impossible to win betting NFL. So again, I endorse what Wheell has to say.

[Shark79]

X-Mas Time has arrived for the books!!

[durito]

Good post TLD, I agree almost completely.

Do you find that NFL lines have gotten sharper in the last say 3-4 year versus say 10 years ago?

I've not being doing this as long, but basically come to a similar realization that I should be focusing first on easier to beat smaller markets, etc. rather than devoting so much time to the NFL as I had been doing. Not that I don't think you can win doing so, but I'm looking it as something to build up to one day.

[Justin7]

You can beat NFL, but 1. It is a LOT of work, and 2. there aren't many games each year. For the effort, college sports are better unless your bankroll is huge.

[TLD]

Originally Posted by durito

Do you find that NFL lines have gotten sharper in the last say 3-4 year versus say 10 years ago?

I don't know that my NFL results provide much evidence for the lines being more or less sharp in recent years. My spectacular years were 2000 and 2006. My crappiest year where I did only marginally better than break even was 2007. The other years varied in between those extremes. There's been no discernible trend in my results.

[BlackJack]

Why do you think places like Pinnacle allow you to bet 75K per game and allow you to bet at -104????

this is due to volume not ease or difficulty of beating the game.

[Sinister Cat]

Originally Posted by durito

Do you find that NFL lines have gotten sharper in the last say 3-4 year versus say 10 years ago?

NFL lines are indeed sharper than they used to be.

[donjuan]

this is due to volume not ease or difficulty of beating the game.

It's due to both.

[Matt Rain]

Originally Posted by BlackJack

this is due to volume not ease or difficulty of beating the game.

volume = sharp lines = tiny potential edge either way = "difficulty of beating the game"

[Poker_Beast]

FUK the Refs!!!!

Not all, but almost all of the big games are fixed. Gambling is a very big business.