What to think about big line moves?

bostonceltics13 · 03-23-2006, 12:44 PM

I'm new to the forum and see that there are a lot of experts on here. I could use some expert advice. When a line moves dramatically in one teams favor, what should I play? Examples: Heat @ Pistons moved from 6 to 8 1/2 quickly. AFL is really got me. The Soul opened at +11 and now stands at +6.5 to +8 (good play to go both ways on by the way). Also, Crush opened at -6.5 and stands now at -10/-10.5.

Does this tell you something about where the smart money should go? Thanks for the tips.

pags11 · 03-23-2006, 04:38 PM

I always try to find a reason for the line move...an injury or something...a lot of times if the move is right before gametime, it's because a syndicate has given out a certain team as their play of the day or something...I usually don't get too worried then, it often helps more than it hurts...remember NW went from +11 to +14 one Sat. morning vs. Purdue and NW won outright...Iowa St. went from +9 to +14 in about 24 hours against Texas A&M and won outright as well...the key is to remember why you like a game and if the point spread goes in your favor, you should like it more and if the point spread goes against you, you should re-evaluate your feeling on the game...it's strange, but many people do the opposite...

bostonceltics13 · 03-23-2006, 04:47 PM

Thanks pags11 for the advice. I know people look at a line move differently. I have never used that when handicapping but thought the more information I had, the better. I appreciate the insights.

pags11 · 03-23-2006, 05:03 PM

now to add a little on the other side of that...last year I got word out of Toledo that QB Gradkowski and TE Clarke would not be playing and the line slowly crept from -9 to -14...I picked up some at -10 (and mind you I never bet big favs)...in this case I had to make an exception...without Gradkowski all they had was a freshman QB...

bostonceltics13 · 03-23-2006, 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pags11

now to add a little on the other side of that...last year I got word out of Toledo that QB Gradkowski and TE Clarke would not be playing and the line slowly crept from -9 to -14...I picked up some at -10 (and mind you I never bet big favs)...in this case I had to make an exception...without Gradkowski all they had was a freshman QB...

So basically would you say there is no set in stone guideline and that each game with a big move should be re-evaluated on its own merits?

Dark Horse · 03-23-2006, 06:22 PM

If the money is on one side, and the line moves to favor that side even more, then the smart money is on the other side.

Example:
http://www.sportsbook.com/vegaslines/bkc_odds.php

Most money is on Duke, but the line moved from -6 to -5.5.
The public is all over Duke, but the sharps are on LSU.

bigboydan · 03-23-2006, 06:30 PM

very good example thread DH.

people have to remember the difference between public action and wiseguy action.

Brick Tamland · 03-24-2006, 10:53 PM

it dont matter where the smart money is if the line already changed. your a sucker if you take a line right after it moves against ur team. but...you see people do it evry nfl sunday though.

Dark Horse · 03-25-2006, 08:18 AM

If you say so.

In this case LSU won the game SU. Even if you didn't know anything about the game, you could have picked the winner just from the line movement.

IMHO, if you have to give up a half a point to know where the smart money is, that is an unbelievable deal.

gamblingman · 03-25-2006, 09:28 AM

Usually with big line moves like the ones your talking i'd go in the direction of the move, it probably wins more then it loses. But for example the detroit miami game you mention, there was some question if shaq was going to play so taking miami + the 8.5 and taking a chance shaq would play ( he ended up playing ), thats why they call it gambling so be careful do the homework.

pags11 · 03-26-2006, 03:11 AM

bostonceltics,

I guess what I'm saying is that the majority of the time there is no real "reason" for a line move (other than just straight steam by the public or syndacite)...but there are certain times where the move is warranted do to an injury or a suspension (see S.C. going from +4 to PK by gametime vs. Cincy in the NIT the other day due to 2 Cincy players being suspended for grades)...check injury threads and read the forums and you should get an idea of what type of line move it is...