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Maple Leafs vs. Senators Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: NHL Player Props & Best Bets for Thursday, April 24

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: April 24, 2025 8:02 AM EDT • 4 min 26 sec read.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators prediction and player props.
Pictured: Ottawa Senators forward Brady Tkachuk speaks with forward Drake Batherson. Photo by Dan Hamilton via Imagn Images

Thursday's Game 3 between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators at Canadian Tire Centre (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2) represents a must-win scenario for the home side. Our Maple Leafs vs. Senators prediction, NHL picks, and player props analyze the chances of the home team cutting the series deficit to one game. 

Despite being down 0-2 in the series, the Senators are the marginal favorites at our best sports betting sites ahead of the crucial contest. 

📡 How to watch Maple Leafs vs. Senators live (Game 3)

📅 Thursday, April 24
🕗 7 p.m. ET
📍 Canadian Tire Centre 
📺 CBC, ESPN2 | 🛜 ESPN+, Sportsnet+

📊 Best Maple Leafs vs. Senators odds, records, stats & trends - Thursday, April 24

📈 Check out our Maple Leafs vs. Senators matchup page for full team stats and betting line history. 

💡 Maple Leafs vs. Senators predictions, expert picks & best bets: Game 3

✅ Against the spread pick: Maple Leafs -1.5  (+220 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
✅ Moneyline pick: Senators (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Over 5.5 goals (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Maple Leafs vs. Senators prediction, odds, player props
Pictured: Ottawa Senators forward Brady Tkachuk and Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Anthony Stolarz and defenceman Oliver Ekman-Larsson battle. Photo by John E. Sokolowski via Imagn Images

🎯 Maple Leafs vs. Senators Game 3 prediction

  • Senators 4, Maple Leafs 2

📰 Maple Leafs vs. Senators Game 3 preview

As much of a must-win without being an actual must-win, the Sens will be as desperate in Game 3 as a father racing against time to attend the birth of his son or daughter.

I expect the Senators to relentlessly pressure the Maple Leafs from the opening puck drop, attempting to get the seventh man - the sold-out Canadian Tire Centre crowd - vociferously behind them.  

Excluding the opening 10 minutes, Travis Green's team concocted in Game 2 the type of performance conducive to a winning formula. Ottawa has dictated 5-on-5 proceedings for the most part, securing a 64% Corsi rating in Game 1 and 61% in Game 2, according to MoneyPuck.com. 

Obviously, that stat in silo doesn't guarantee results.

Facets the Sens should improve at home 

The Maple Leafs have dominated the special teams battle, scoring four goals on seven attempts. That's the first thing that must change for Ottawa to win Game 3. The Maple Leafs cannot be afforded extra-man opportunities, and the Sens - 1-for-5 thus far - must make the most of theirs. 

Fortunately, Ottawa is palpably superior with the man advantage at home, with the sixth-best unit (27.7%) during the regular season. 

While dominating Corsi is a promising first step, the Sens must couple that with creating more high-grade scoring opportunities. The 1.26 expected goals 5-on-5 in Game 2 won't suffice. The boost from their home crowd will facilitate more offense, and with Linus Ullmark appearing to have finally settled down, I like the Sens to get off the snide in Game 3. 

✅ Best bet: Senators ML (-110 via bet365)

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🥅 Best NHL player prop bets for Maple Leafs vs. Senators: Game 3

🔎 Our NEW NHL player prop odds tool can help you find the best NHL odds across legal sportsbooks in your area!

🚨 Drake Batherson Over 2.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Batherson will be devastated about his giveaway that led to Max Domi's Game 2 overtime winner. I expect him to quickly learn from that catastrophic error, trying to make up for it with a spirited offensive display.

That should include Batherson letting loose on Anthony Stolarz, who must be tested early and often. Batherson hit the Over in Game 1 but had just one shot in Game 2. bet365 offers the longest odds (+132) of our best NHL betting sites, where a $10 bet would profit $13.20.  

💰 Best odds: +132 via bet365

🚨 Brady Tkachuk Over 3.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tkachuk is the Sens' key driving engine, which is even more pronounced in the postseason. I backed him to secure a point and secure at least four shots on goal, both of which he accomplished. I don't expect any regression in front of a feverish home crowd witnessing their first playoff game in almost eight years. The Sens captain is the type of beast to feed off of that frenzied atmosphere. 

The odds are a bit expensive, but it's worth it on this one. 

💰 Best odds: -130 via DraftKings

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🚨 Auston Matthews anytime goal ⭐⭐⭐

In the first two games, Matthews notched three assists on home ice and fired nine shots on goal. In Game 1, he had 1.13 expected goals, six shots on target, and 10 shot attempts, doing everything but potting one. I can't see him being held off the scoresheet for much longer. He'll have a much better chance of scoring if the Maple Leafs get a few power plays. Either way, I like him to find a way in Game 3 in a losing effort. 

💰 Best odds: +140 via FanDuel

Same Game Parlays
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🚀 Best same-game parlay (SGP) for Maple Leafs vs. Senators: Game 3

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📈 Live Maple Leafs vs. Senators odds & Game 3 betting lines

Latest  odds Maple Leafs vs. Senators from our best sports betting sites.

🪧 Maple Leafs vs. Senators Game 3 opening odds

Opening odds via BetMGM.

  • Puck line: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-275) | Senators -1.5 (+200)
  • Moneyline: Maple Leafs -105| Senators -115
  • Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-120) | Under 5.5 (+100)

🚑 Maple Leafs vs. Senators injury report & lineup notes: Game 3

🧠 Stanley Cup predictions, expert picks 

💵 Best hockey betting sites

Ready to place your hockey bets today? Here are the best NHL betting sites and best sportsbook promos for the Stanley Cup playoffs:

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.