Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer View Post
Plays: 39H West Virginia Win Probability 81.30% Proline Odds 1.20 Correct Odds 1.23 Player Edge -2.44% 40V Connecticut Win Probability 49.75% Proline Odds 2.20 Correct Odds 2.01 Player Edge +9.45% 45H Memphis Win Probability 72.99% Proline Odds 1.30 Correct Odds 1.37 Player Edge -5.11% 46H Wyoming Win Probability 60.24% Proline Odds 1.60 Correct Odds 1.66 Player Edge -3.61% Tickets: 39H/40V/45H Win Probability 29.50% Proline Odds 3.43 Correct Odds 3.39 Player Edge +1.18% 39H/40V/46H Win Probability 24.39% Proline Odds 4.22 Correct Odds 4.10 Player Edge +2.93% 39H/45H/46H **Although it is tracked as posted, I only wagered half on this ticket** Win Probability 35.71% Proline Odds 2.50 Correct Odds 2.80 Player Edge -10.71% 40V/45H/46H Win Probability 21.88% Proline Odds 4.58 Correct Odds 4.57 Player Edge +0.22%
Money Making 101.... LOL? Let's assume you have a $10,000 BR....

So if you were using Full Kelly with a $10,000 BR and bet the 2.93% player edge you showed above (I picked the highest one for fun)... you should optimally bet $90 on this play to maximize your BR growth.

You would win it 24.39% of the time, gaining you $289.80 in profit.... rest of the time you lose $90, therefore on average your BR grows +$4.95 per bet. Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii iiip it amirite?

How much was the gas to get to the store to buy your ticket?
If you walked, how much was the cream cheese bagel you ate in order to give your body enough energy to walk up to the clerk to make this +EV bet.

I get what you are saying, but what are you expecting to gain with $50 tickets?

At the end of the year, the kid serving you your bagel will make more money than doing this.

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Whatever tho, let's look at this objectively and see what it really would take to conquer proline.

Let's first say you want to be a complete baller.... so in order to be ballin you need to make some huge number like $100 / day. In order to do this, you will need to have an average return of $100 / bet (because we are going to assume you find this 2.xx% edge once in a day and every day of the year).

Reversing the calculations above, to make about $100, you'll be risking $1,817 per proline ticket. When you win, it'll be $5850 and when you lose it'll be that 1817... this leaves you with about $100 on average.

Using Kelly, In order to wager $1,817 on these odds without going broke, you will need a bankroll of about $200,000.