[Peyton2MarvinN06]

Alright, what am I missing here... I know the Jets aren't world beaters even with the addition of Favre... However, with their new O-Line that should give him time to throw the ball and Jones/Washington should have good holes to run through... The Dolphins are still gonna be dreadful IMO... I think the Jets will come out pumped up and want to get a big road win to open the season and if they do so, I see them winning by atleast a field goal!

Anyone else like this play? What other plays are you eying for week 1?

[ZBOIZ]

I actually love this play! The Jets and the Lions will be my big time nfl week 1 plays! If injuries dont play a part. Those two will be easy winners!

[CrazyLou]

P2M, as soon as I heard Favre was traded to the Jets, I made two bets- Jets over 7 wins @ +110, and Jets week 1 vs Miami.

I really hope we're on the right side here bud, because I probably got a little too excited with the play...

[ZBOIZ]

Originally Posted by CrazyL

P2M, as soon as I heard Favre was traded to the Jets, I made two bets- Jets over 7 wins @ +110, and Jets week 1 vs Miami.

I really hope we're on the right side here bud, because I probably got a little too excited with the play...

It's the right play! The only reason the spread is at 2.5 is because of Paecells! But he's washed up and cant make a differene on that team this quick!

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

Originally Posted by CrazyL

P2M, as soon as I heard Favre was traded to the Jets, I made two bets- Jets over 7 wins @ +110, and Jets week 1 vs Miami.

I really hope we're on the right side here bud, because I probably got a little too excited with the play...

Nice guys, I'm glad that we are all on the same page here... This is one of those looks too good to be true games almost... However, I will take my chances all day with the 1-15 Phins vs. a Jets team ramped up for Favre's 1st regular season game! I see the Jets winning this game by double digits!

[hoopster42]

looks too good to be true, so perhaps a pass on the gm?

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

Originally Posted by hoopster42

looks too good to be true, so perhaps a pass on the gm?

Yeah, I know I said that, but I really like this one... You like this play Hoopster? I think Favre comes out gunnin in Week 1! I'll take my chances with Josh McCown @ QB for Dolphins and no Jason Taylor on D for them... Just my thoughts!

[CrazyLou]

P2M, we are either going to look like geniuses or have egg thrown on our face here. Lets hope for the smart caps. How about a 28-14 Jets victory, hows that sound to you?

[jtuck]

Possibly the best bet on the board for week 1, but god i hate wagering on Brett Favre.

[krk1030]

Line will shoot up by week 1, so bet it now.

[Brady2Moss]

A good rule of thumb in NFL betting is...

If its too good to be true, fade it...

Here are a few reasons why I think Jets -3 has sucker written all over it.

1. Brett Favre- lots of hype, has to learn a new system, new team, city, everything... could be difficult to adjust
2. Dolphins playing home opener trying to win back the fans and impress Parcells, 100% effort is guaranteed
3. Chad P. knows this jets team inside out... huge advantage
4. Vegas doesnt give out "easy" lines in the NFL, this line is as sharp as they come and you can bet your ass the general public will be pounding the Jets -3, just what vegas ordered...

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

Originally Posted by CrazyL

P2M, we are either going to look like geniuses or have egg thrown on our face here. Lets hope for the smart caps. How about a 28-14 Jets victory, hows that sound to you?

A 28-14 J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS victory sounds amazing to me! I'm on the Jets -2.5 for a couple units already! Crazy what else on the board looks good to you? For every week I try to play one or two 10 pt teasers! Have been doing this for the entire season in the CFL and have gone 8-1 so far... Just been betting a unit on each of them and I don't even watch CFL... Well, here's to hoping we have a KILLER year in football betting this year bud!

[unde0087]

Originally Posted by Brady2Moss

A good rule of thumb in NFL betting is...

If its too good to be true, fade it...

Here are a few reasons why I think Jets -3 has sucker written all over it.

1. Brett Favre- lots of hype, has to learn a new system, new team, city, everything... could be difficult to adjust
2. Dolphins playing home opener trying to win back the fans and impress Parcells, 100% effort is guaranteed
3. Chad P. knows this jets team inside out... huge advantage
4. Vegas doesnt give out "easy" lines in the NFL, this line is as sharp as they come and you can bet your ass the general public will be pounding the Jets -3, just what vegas ordered...

But here is a few reasons that Jets -3 isn't a sucker bet:
1. Since 2001 Jets are 10-4 against Miami
2. Since 2005 Jets are 5-0-1 ATS and 5-1 SU verus Miami
3. Jets are 3-0 ATS at Miami since 2005
4. Jets are 2-0-1 ATS as a favorite against Miami

In other words, Jets owe Miami, I will probably end up betting Jets although I don't bet many Jet games because they are my favorite team and the got that piece of junk Favre now. But when it comes to Miami playing Jets I think those stats speak for themselves.

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

Originally Posted by unde0087

But here is a few reasons that Jets -3 isn't a sucker bet:
1. Since 2001 Jets are 10-4 against Miami
2. Since 2005 Jets are 5-0-1 ATS and 5-1 SU verus Miami
3. Jets are 3-0 ATS at Miami since 2005
4. Jets are 2-0-1 ATS as a favorite against Miami

In other words, Jets owe Miami, I will probably end up betting Jets although I don't bet many Jet games because they are my favorite team and the got that piece of junk Favre now. But when it comes to Miami playing Jets I think those stats speak for themselves.

Thanks for the stats on the Jets bud... Wasn't aware of all of that... Knew that they had their number pretty good, but not that good! GOOD STUFF MAN!

[Brady2Moss]

small trends like that dont mean shit in the NFL, thats why all these bookies actually GIVE you the link to stats databases, only squares use that crap in the NFL

[hoopster42]

Originally Posted by Brady2Moss

A good rule of thumb in NFL betting is...

If its too good to be true, fade it...

Here are a few reasons why I think Jets -3 has sucker written all over it.

1. Brett Favre- lots of hype, has to learn a new system, new team, city, everything... could be difficult to adjust
2. Dolphins playing home opener trying to win back the fans and impress Parcells, 100% effort is guaranteed
3. Chad P. knows this jets team inside out... huge advantage
4. Vegas doesnt give out "easy" lines in the NFL, this line is as sharp as they come and you can bet your ass the general public will be pounding the Jets -3, just what vegas ordered...

#3 is a great one, reminds of some yrs ago when the pats safety milloy went to the bills right before the season started and told them everything he knew, the bills won like 30-0 that day, i think it was the opening game too

[unde0087]

Originally Posted by Brady2Moss

small trends like that dont mean shit in the NFL, thats why all these bookies actually GIVE you the link to stats databases, only squares use that crap in the NFL

streaks or trends always matter in my opinion, that is how I pick games most of the time especially on big plays. I don't know how you don't think those numbers don't matter in this case. That is just flat out domination of one rival against another and if you don't think so just imagine fading when that trend started, you would be down some serious money. I cashed the last game between these two last season and mostly because of the numbers. I am not saying I will go with this game but looking at the numbers it look pretty good. I am tired of seeing people say well the line seems to easy so fade it. Well last night Philly was the easy pick and it was my first winner, granted it was a crazy one but a winner none the less. If the public is on a pick that doesn't make it a loser and even if the squares are on a pick it doesn't make it a winner. That is why doing good research on your own and staying smart is key. Like the Super Bowl last season, getting that many points with the Giants was the easiest pick of the year and it was what it looked like.....a winner.

[Brady2Moss]

Originally Posted by unde0087

streaks or trends always matter in my opinion, that is how I pick games most of the time especially on big plays. I don't know how you don't think those numbers don't matter in this case. That is just flat out domination of one rival against another and if you don't think so just imagine fading when that trend started, you would be down some serious money. I cashed the last game between these two last season and mostly because of the numbers. I am not saying I will go with this game but looking at the numbers it look pretty good. I am tired of seeing people say well the line seems to easy so fade it. Well last night Philly was the easy pick and it was my first winner, granted it was a crazy one but a winner none the less. If the public is on a pick that doesn't make it a loser and even if the squares are on a pick it doesn't make it a winner. That is why doing good research on your own and staying smart is key. Like the Super Bowl last season, getting that many points with the Giants was the easiest pick of the year and it was what it looked like.....a winner.

If the squares are on a play you can be sure that the value in that direction will slowly decrease until game time.

and sure anyone can say, well I was on the "public" side and I won, so the f*ck what... 1 game doesnt mean anything, play the public side 1000 times then tell me how many units your "up"...

Also those small trends are useless in the NFL, not enough games per season and teams forget about trends and things like that, it doesnt affect their confidence as much compared to sports like NHL,MLB,NBA where they play multiple games per week...

If you think those trends will help you, follow them for a year and then you will regret doing it. Im not saying they are completely useless, im saying dont make them your #1 capping source... trends come and go w/ the snap of a finger.

EX. Pats ML goes 18-0, then loses.... trend my ass

[Brady2Moss]

Dolphins +4.5 is the play (squares will push it, dont worry)

[Brady2Moss]

Originally Posted by hoopster42

#3 is a great one, reminds of some yrs ago when the pats safety milloy went to the bills right before the season started and told them everything he knew, the bills won like 30-0 that day, i think it was the opening game too

Also, lets add another note

- soooo much action will be on the Jets that if the NFL rigged this game, you know which side it would be rigged for (hey, if the NBA is rigged, why not NFL)

[unde0087]

Originally Posted by Brady2Moss

If the squares are on a play you can be sure that the value in that direction will slowly decrease until game time.

and sure anyone can say, well I was on the "public" side and I won, so the f*ck what... 1 game doesnt mean anything, play the public side 1000 times then tell me how many units your "up"...

Also those small trends are useless in the NFL, not enough games per season and teams forget about trends and things like that, it doesnt affect their confidence as much compared to sports like NHL,MLB,NBA where they play multiple games per week...

If you think those trends will help you, follow them for a year and then you will regret doing it. Im not saying they are completely useless, im saying dont make them your #1 capping source... trends come and go w/ the snap of a finger.

EX. Pats ML goes 18-0, then loses.... trend my ass

No shit. Thanks for pointing out the fact that following the public will cost me money....I never even came close to saying they were right most of the time I said they are not always on the loosing end. And I didn't say squares aren't getting valued plays but they don't always win.

So you are saying Pats win 18 straight and lose one game and you wouldn't bet them to win the next game if they had won 18 of their last 19? I guess I don't see your point.

[krk1030]

Pennington probably doesnt even know any of the jets plays over 15 yards down field.

[unde0087]

Originally Posted by Brady2Moss

Also, lets add another note

- soooo much action will be on the Jets that if the NFL rigged this game, you know which side it would be rigged for (hey, if the NBA is rigged, why not NFL)

wouldn't argue with that, I think NFL is the worst sport out of all of pro sports for dare I say "the rig factor"

Look no further than the Pats/Ravens game at the end of last season. The refs made sure the Pats stayed undefeated on national TV. Some of the most bullshit calls I have ever seen all within the last 3 minutes of that game. They sure didn't care much if they made it obvious or not.

[unit1884]

w/e, I believe that every major league sport is rigged in some way or another... Why wouldnt it be? These companies dont give a shit about the fans, its all about money, and they do whatever it takes to bring in the big $$$

[SexyMit]

Originally Posted by unit1884

w/e, I believe that every major league sport is rigged in some way or another... Why wouldnt it be? These companies dont give a shit about the fans, its all about money, and they do whatever it takes to bring in the big $$$

Yes that is so true... And until every gambler knows that they can't beat VEGAS. They will be much happier