[dwaechte]

A solid week 7 for me, and it was a good set of games to see where teams were at. We enter into the bye weeks, which sort of suck, but you got to give them a break at some point.




Early plays for this week:

1.05* Montreal -3.5 (-105) at Toronto:

Toronto fell apart last week against Hamilton once they started to turn the ball over. They hung with a TiCats team that's playing better, but 3 turnovers did them in and Hamilton cruised to a 24 point win. This week, with no changes being made on defense, I expect Calvillo and Cobourne to absolutely tear the Argos apart. Meanwhile, Joseph still hasn't put together a single good effort all season.

1.05* Hamilton +3.5 at Winnipeg: The fact that Hamilton is getting points in this game is a gift. Winnipeg has put together one good game, and have been dreck otherwise. Switching to Glenn at QB should help the offense, but I still don't see them gaining yards consistently, even against a somewhat porous Hamilton D. On the other side of the ball, Richie Williams probably looked the best I've seen him last week, and the running back by committee has looked fine in the absence on Lumsden.


If all 4 of these teams play the way they have up until now, the Als and Cats will win by double digits. That being said, I don't like betting against Winnipeg at home, and you never know if that talent that Toronto was supposed to have will actually start showing up at some point.


YTD: 21-15-1, +4.67

[chipper13101]

Both look like winners dw, GL!

[betplom]

Agree with the Montreal play, taking the Bombers against Ham.

[dwaechte]

I got a bad line on the Montreal play, hopefully it doesn't matter.

[Bobby]

I live in Winnipeg and follow the team very closely. Don't want to sound like an ass but Winnipeg will win this game. How close it will be is a different story. You have good reasoning for liking Hamilton but I really think the peg takes this one. I think both favorites win/cover this week. Good luck

[cobra_king]

The lines are very sharp this week and probably will be from here on out. But it was a fun ride while it lasted.

[dwaechte]

What I think this comes down to is just how much effect homefield has on these games.

Toronto and Winnipeg have been, hands down, by a mile, the worst two teams in the CFL to this point. There's absolutely no denying that. On a neutral field, going purely by performance to date, Montreal would be a 14+ point fav and Hamilton would be around a 10 point favourite.

But, obviously the lines are reflecting the fact that often times when you put a couple of against the wall teams on their home field, you never know what could happen. I think the energy and focus for both home teams, especially the Bombers, will be heightened this week.

The only problem with that is that energy and focus don't win games on their own. You need to have the talent and the system rolling on all cylinders to truly put in a good performance. I don't doubt these teams are talented, but they're clearly not working well with the systems that are in place.

[cobra_king]

I would disagree with you that the numbers would be that high on a neutral field. In fact i don't believe they'd even be that high if the road teams were playing on their home field.

Saying that however, if you think this is the case, this week should bring some serious plays for you on the two favorites, and to that i wish you good luck.

[Bobby]

If Dinwiddie was starting for Winnipeg I would agree about Hamilton, but Glenn has served his time on the bench and when he was put in in the 4th last game vs Montreal he drove the team really well down field for the score. Or he could totally bomb like he has all year LOL, I think he will play well but it's hard to say.

[betplom]

After MUCH thought, I'm making the following plays:

Thursday Aug 14, 2008
Winnipeg Blue Bombers [-3 -110]
Hamilton Tigercats [Under 25 -110]

Friday Aug 15, 2008
Montreal Alouettes [-3 -110]
Toronto Argonauts [Under 25½ -110]

[dwaechte]

Originally Posted by cobra_king

I would disagree with you that the numbers would be that high on a neutral field. In fact i don't believe they'd even be that high if the road teams were playing on their home field.

Saying that however, if you think this is the case, this week should bring some serious plays for you on the two favorites, and to that i wish you good luck.

I didn't say "would" be, I said "should" be if you only consider the statistical performance that the teams have put up to this point.

Obviously you need to consider the fact that to this point, we've probably gotten pretty skewed/extreme results, and you need to account for the fact that both Toronto and Winnipeg should be playing better than they are, and that they'll regress to the mean at some point. That being said, I still feel confident in the plays.

[cobra_king]

Originally Posted by dwaechte

Montreal would be a 14+ point fav and Hamilton would be around a 10 point favourite.

I don't know, looks like "would be" to me. Even factoring in performance to date.

Would be, or should be.........my point was that the line would/should never be that high. My other point was that if you believe they would/should, then you have found two very nice plays for the weekend. And i wished you luck with them before, and i will do so again.

[dwaechte]

Haha I'm an idiot, I did say "would". Meant should. My bad. Plus I came off differently than I meant to, thanks for the well wishes.

[cobra_king]

No worries DW, you are solid around here. All the best.

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

Hey guys, just wanted to say that I really look forward to reading this thread every week as I have been betting CFL this year... I don't even get to see any of the games, but have just been anazlying stats and reading up on your guys capping! Great work so far! I'll try to throw in my 2 cents, but mind you I don't get to see any of the games... I have been doing pretty well, but I have to give you guys a lot of the credit! I've been playing a lot of teasers with the games you guys pick and then if you have a strong feeling on a game I have been playing that side...

Hope this doesn't jinx it, but I am on Montreal -3 for tomorrow and doing some sort of teaser with Montreal and Hamilton getting points!

REALLY APPRECIATE ALL OF THE INFO! You guys ROCK! Let's make some cash the rest of the CFL season and all season long in the NFL!

[Marigold HD]

Originally Posted by Peyton2MarvinN06

Hey guys, just wanted to say that I really look forward to reading this thread every week as I have been betting CFL this year... I don't even get to see any of the games, but have just been anazlying stats and reading up on your guys capping! Great work so far! I'll try to throw in my 2 cents, but mind you I don't get to see any of the games... I have been doing pretty well, but I have to give you guys a lot of the credit! I've been playing a lot of teasers with the games you guys pick and then if you have a strong feeling on a game I have been playing that side...

Hope this doesn't jinx it, but I am on Montreal -3 for tomorrow and doing some sort of teaser with Montreal and Hamilton getting points!

REALLY APPRECIATE ALL OF THE INFO! You guys ROCK! Let's make some cash the rest of the CFL season and all season long in the NFL!

good luck guys

I'm on the over 53.5 for the ham-win game today

[dwaechte]

Originally Posted by Marigold HD

good luck guys

I'm on the over 53.5 for the ham-win game today

I'm leaning over as well, but not sure I like it enough to make it a play. I'd like to see Glenn for a full game again before I bet on Bomber totals... I guess the same logic should apply to their sides as well, but I feel really good about Hamilton being able to put points up on that D.

[EaglesPhan36]

Seems like everyone is on Hamilton this week.

[dwaechte]

A terrible fumble at the two yard line by the TiCats, but Kevin Glenn returns the favour with one of the worst interception throws I've ever seen. 7-0 Hammy.

[dwaechte]

Bahhh. Hugeee freaking turnover by Hamilton.

[accuscoresucks]

Originally Posted by dwaechte

Bahhh. Hugeee freaking turnover by Hamilton.

did my homework last night i spit out
mont -150

[dwaechte]

18-14 Bombers at the half. I feel alright about the game so far. Teams have been playing very even.

Wish I had gone with the over, it's looking good for you Marigold.

[betplom]

Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36

Seems like everyone is on Hamilton this week.

Not me I'm on Winnipeg -2½ tonight, I'll not be touching Hamilton until I see more improvement, OR they play Toronto.

[betplom]

Originally Posted by betplom

After MUCH thought, I'm making the following plays:

Thursday Aug 14, 2008
Winnipeg Blue Bombers [-3 -110] - WINNER!
Hamilton Tigercats [Under 25 -110] - WINNER!

Friday Aug 15, 2008
Montreal Alouettes [-3 -110]
Toronto Argonauts [Under 25½ -110]

Two winners tonight!
Two down, two to go.
Lets go Als!

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

Originally Posted by betplom

Two winners tonight!
Two down, two to go.
Lets go Als!

what was the score of the bombers/hamilton game? i can't seem to find a scoreboard that has it???

[Marigold HD]

final score 37 -24 winnipeg

congrats to all over and winnipeg backers........will post friday's play closer to game time.

[betplom]

Montreal now -4½ at many books

[Dark Horse]

Borderline play for me tonight, but have been doing very well with CFL dogs. Toronto ATS.

[betplom]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

Borderline play for me tonight, but have been doing very well with CFL dogs. Toronto ATS.

If they make half of the tackles they missed last week they might be ok, but from what I've seen so far this year, Toronto looks awful.

Montreal is the play tonight, they should lead early and hold off the Argos.

[betplom]

Originally Posted by betplom

Montreal now -4½ at many books

-5½

[accuscoresucks]

go MONTREAL
damn this line moved as always i got the ml -150 on this

[betplom]

Originally Posted by betplom

After MUCH thought, I'm making the following plays:

Thursday Aug 14, 2008
Winnipeg Blue Bombers [-3 -110] Winner
Hamilton Tigercats [Under 25 -110] Winner

Friday Aug 15, 2008
Montreal Alouettes [-3 -110] Winner
Toronto Argonauts [Under 25½ -110] Winner

4-0 this week in posted CFL plays.

But I made one last wager and the refs fυcked it up for me.

I had second half total under 26½ and was looking great with 4 minutes left, a phantom "facemasking" penalty against Montreal when they stopped the Argos on 3rd down and the Argos score a TD on the following play. Should have been Montreal ball.

I can handle losing, but when such atrocious bad calls cost me money I get really annoyed.

[Marigold HD]

way to go betplom. I also had a perfect week.

Lets get them again next week Friends

West coast showdowns

[Bobby]

Originally Posted by betplom

-5½

Just a quick note on that, I was following the lines and while most books were still at -4 and -4.5, 5dimes was the first book to move to -5.5 probably because they have the highest limits for CFL. Greek is 1K on sides/ML, Pinny is 2K, BetJam is $500, not sure what CRIS is, and 5Dimes is 5K on sides and $2500 on ML's. So if someone wanted to get down a large bet 5D's would be the place to make it. So if you're into looking for "the smart money" maybe check out the line moves at 5D's for CFL.

[betplom]