Week 15 Arena

Justin7 · 06-05-2008, 10:27 AM

Best bet: Colorado +6 over Grand Rapids

The last time these two teams played, Colorado won 63-28. What has changed? Not much - just the homefield.

On paper, the teams look equally bad. Colorado's defense allows 54 points per game (versus 49 offensive points). Grand Rapids allows 53 points per game (versus 45 offensive). In raw scoring differential, Colorado has the edge on averages.

Grand Rapids' average numbers are skewed though. They scored 92 and 72 versus Kansas City (#19 defense out of 19 teams) and 84 versus LA (#18 defense out of 19 teams). Incidentally, those were Grand Rapids' only 3 wins. In its other 10 games, it has lost by an average of 13 points.

Make no mistake - Colorado is not spectacular. They aren't even average. But Grand Rapids is just BAD. I make the fair line Colorado -1. When a line is off that much, it makes it my Free ATM withdrawal play of the week (which are 9-4 on the year).

The rest of my card...
Arizona +4.5. It's now +3, which is still fair - I make it Arizona -4.5. A possible best bet with KC starting a new QB.
New York/Orlando OV102.5. This was almost a best bet. I make it 109.5, due in part to a lot of Orlando defensive injuries.
Utah/LA Und124. Now 123, still good.
Ari/KC UND108 (now 107). New QBs score less.

But if you just want one, take Colorado +6.

bigboydan · 06-05-2008, 01:15 PM

I'm going to take your advice on this one and play it as well Justin.

Lets cash this ticket

louisvillekid · 06-05-2008, 01:40 PM

i was getting ready to say i'm following you. since i have been sucking at AFL the past month, but since BBD says he's on it, i'm staying away. the last 2 times i told BBD i was with him, it didn't go so well.

tomcowley · 06-05-2008, 04:25 PM

Quote:

New York/Orlando OV102.5. This was almost a best bet. I make it 109.5, due in part to a lot of Orlando defensive injuries.

New York-New Orleans I assume? The orlando line is 108ish.

frostno98 · 06-05-2008, 04:42 PM

Crush vs. Rampage

The battle of two teams with 4 or more straight losing streak. Both are teams horrific, both likes to lose. Seems the +6 is the best play here. So I'm riding with you on this one.

Justin7 · 06-05-2008, 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomcowley

New York-New Orleans I assume? The orlando line is 108ish.

Um right game, wrong explanation :0

topcat · 06-09-2008, 04:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin7

Um right game, wrong explanation :0

justin,which play do you like the best.over on the monday night game,or utah team total?

Justin7 · 06-09-2008, 09:12 AM

I'm on the under for tonight's game, so I wouldn't play over unless it got down to around 113. So if you have to have action, take LAA+9.5. It's marginal, but still +EV.

Justin7 · 06-10-2008, 01:11 AM

Once again, I lose my best bet and sweep the rest of the card. Worse things could happen I guess.

CrazyL · 06-10-2008, 01:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin7

Once again, I lose my best bet and sweep the rest of the card. Worse things could happen I guess.

Trust me I know that feeling all too well. Times like that I wish I had flat bet.

topcat · 06-10-2008, 02:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin7

I'm on the under for tonight's game, so I wouldn't play over unless it got down to around 113. So if you have to have action, take LAA+9.5. It's marginal, but still +EV.

congrats on your bet justin.tough lost for me .it would blow your mind to know how many games i have lost by half a point.damn kickers.