Week 14 Arena

Justin7 · 05-29-2008, 09:17 PM

My best bet is SJ/LAA UND115.5.

Base on raw stats for the whole season, this number was a bit high - I made the total 111. There are several other factors that will push this down. First, teams are adapting to the increased flexibility of the Jack Linebacker. For the first few weeks, defenses were scoring 5.5 points per game. This has come down substantially - closer to 3/game for the last 4 weeks - you are seeing fewer defensive TDs on passes near the line of scrimmage.

A second thing I expect to lower the scoring is LAA's QB. They have been flip-flopping between Hicks and Cumbie. Between the two, Hicks is better. If they use both, it drops the total two points. If the use just Cumbie, it lowers the game total 4 points.

Third, LAA has hired a new offensive line and FB coach. I expect new blocking schemes and/or personnel. With this, I anticipate more problems the first week it is implemented.

This line is off - it should be about 104, so I'll call this a best bet on the Under down to 112.

Justin7 · 05-29-2008, 09:22 PM

And the rest of the card - all sides on road teams.
SJ-7
Utah+3
KC+16

SlickFazzer · 05-29-2008, 09:26 PM

Good stuff, thanks.

bigboydan · 05-29-2008, 09:36 PM

I've been sitting on the sidelines in the AFL for a while now, however your tempting me to jump back in Justin.

Best of luck to you on your plays

pico · 05-29-2008, 09:43 PM

oakas · 05-29-2008, 09:55 PM

This line is dropping fast boys.
Opened up at 117 yesterday and now is 114 at most places.
There are a few books that have it at 115'.

Good luck.

frostno98 · 05-30-2008, 12:10 AM

KC +16 looks good

pico · 05-31-2008, 06:25 PM

my 7pm pick:

STRAIGHT BET
GEORGIA FORCE -3½-110

different books has different spreads...i can see georgia win by 4 or 7

Justin7 · 05-31-2008, 06:27 PM

pico,

3.5 is a great number. Where do you see that?

pico · 05-31-2008, 09:58 PM

****. georgia won by 1 pt. 1 fg from covering...oh well...win some lose some.

tomcowley · 06-01-2008, 01:07 AM

So did I misread something, or could they have just taken a knee and run out the clock that play instead of scoring to hit 115 (and then 122)? I showed 0:27 left, 3rd down, LA with no timeouts.

diogee · 06-01-2008, 01:08 AM

Wow that is a bad beat on your best bet...unreal final minute.
Congrats going 2-0 on the others so far.

pico · 06-01-2008, 01:09 AM

san jose games looks great until the 50 pts 4th q. oh well, at least they covered -9.5...1-1...pushed for me.

KC is a winner

2-2 for me today.

5/5 away teams covered the spread today.

Justin7 · 06-01-2008, 01:09 AM

You must advance the ball, or the clock stops.

Those 2 meaningless TDs in the last 25 seconds of that game cost were about a 20k swing in the red for me, so I'm a bit bitter.

pico · 06-01-2008, 01:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin7

You must advance the ball, or the clock stops.

Those 2 meaningless TDs in the last 25 seconds of that game cost were about a 20k swing in the red for me, so I'm a bit bitter.

now i know why everytime you post a pick, the line moves at least a point.

i am just glad i did not parlay sj -9.5 with the under. that last 2 tds cost me 1k.

Justin7 · 06-01-2008, 01:21 AM

I had a lot of parlays that included SJ-7 with under 115.5, as well as straight bets. That pathetic end of the game turned a monster weekend into close to break-even. Now it's all about Utah.

oakas · 06-01-2008, 01:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin7

You must advance the ball, or the clock stops.

Those 2 meaningless TDs in the last 25 seconds of that game cost were about a 20k swing in the red for me, so I'm a bit bitter.

I watched this game and I am so fvcking pissed off right now I can't even see straight. Unfvckingbelieveable.