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05-02-2008, 12:04 AM
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#3 (permalink) |
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Moderator
Join Date: 07-31-06
Posts: 1,443
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I like Tampa Bay +5.5 over Chicago.
Chicago is 7-2, and the #1 team in the American conference. Tampa Bay is only 3-5. Is +5.5 points enough? Chicago has had one of the easiest schedules this year. In its 7 wins, only 1 was against a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay is better than its record indicates, playing a tougher schedule, and losing 2 very close games. Then, look closely at the "luck" factor. Tampa Bay has been brutalized by fumbles, with a net -0.7 fumbles per game. Fumbles are almost completely random (unlike interceptions, which are very correlated to offenses, and somewhat related to defenses). Chicago is slightly on the plus side. This one factor alone accounts for close to a 4-point error in the "expected line". I think the books got this one wrong, so I'm on Tampa Bay +5.5 at home. |
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05-02-2008, 12:09 AM
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#4 (permalink) |
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 02-04-08
Posts: 2,291
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Justin I think you're a pretty fukin good capper, I hope you are anyway cuz I'm betting cheap Arena/NBA right now just tryin to dig my way out of the hole I'm down bout 4k last month and that
 is fukin suckin I am not rich and it's fukin makin me mad but it was money I had won in previous two months but still (actually bout 1500 of that 4k was losing on the stock market with a Scottrade account I opened up but I'm including that as it was total day trade gambling buy/sell in an hour ). My question is how the fuk do you get within 1/2 pt on Arena, SOB's always miss at least 1 or 2 extra pts, it's like they don't even practice that . |
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05-05-2008, 10:37 PM
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#9 (permalink) |
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 04-05-07
Location: the moon
Posts: 9,269
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damn, today's game is a push...or a loss if you taken +4.5
__________________
"But you can't have your dream without laying something on the line. The key is not to risk what you can't afford to lose. You might think you're different, but someday you gonna want more too. The quesiton is what are you willing to lay on the line." 钱 錢 argent Geld soldi お金 돈 dinheiro деньги dinero เงิน כסף, ממון raha λεφτά pengar danh từ money |
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05-07-2008, 06:25 PM
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#13 (permalink) |
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SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 04-05-07
Location: the moon
Posts: 9,269
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-4.5 covered too
__________________
"But you can't have your dream without laying something on the line. The key is not to risk what you can't afford to lose. You might think you're different, but someday you gonna want more too. The quesiton is what are you willing to lay on the line." 钱 錢 argent Geld soldi お金 돈 dinheiro деньги dinero เงิน כסף, ממון raha λεφτά pengar danh từ money |
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