Arena best bet

Justin7 · 04-18-2008, 10:58 AM

Columbus+11.5 vs Philadelphia

A lot of people are on Philadelphia. Graziani, one of the best QBs in the league, is expected to start for Phili after missing the last 5 weeks. Columbus's offense is 16th out of 17th for points generated. Returning shark QB versus an offensive pip-squeak should be a blowout, right?

A few counter points. D'Orazio has played very well for Phili in Graziani's absence. So well, in fact, that I don't make any line adjustment for Graziani returning.

Second, Columbus's offensive production isn't as bad as it looks. If you are "suppose to lose", good coaches slow the game down. This gives underdogs a better chance to win (and cover). The Destroyers are averaging only 10.3 possessions per game, compared to the league average of 12.5. I don't expect Phili to put up 56 points on 10 possessions.

Third, the game is at Columbus. In years past, I have used a home field advantage of about 1.5 points. This year, the league average has been 5 points. It was higher than last year also.

Fourth, Columbus has been unlucky. In 7 games, they have not recovered a single fumble on defense or kicking. While interceptions are highly correlated to offense and somewhat related to defense, fumbles are almost completely random. On the flip side, Phili has a +6 fumble turnover ratio, making their wins look better than they truly are. The two extremes in luck (and removing it) is worth another 5 point adjustment in the line.

My best bet this week is Columbus +11.5.

michael777 · 04-18-2008, 11:03 AM

thanks justin

moses millsap · 04-18-2008, 11:13 AM

Good luck Justin, at what point would you consider buying back some if the line starts moving like a madman over the weekend.

CrazyL · 04-18-2008, 11:14 AM

Good luck Justin. The movement doesn't really matter yet but I see pinny opened at 11.5 and dropped to 10.5.

moses millsap · 04-18-2008, 11:17 AM

+10' seems to be the WA line. Was at +11' at Greek earlier, but no longer.

Justin7 · 04-18-2008, 11:22 AM

I make the fair line Phili-5. Columbus plays a lot of close games - last week was the first game this year where either side won by more than 1 possession (8 points).

I can't imagine the line moving enough to where I'd take it back. but if I could take +10x and -8 at the same time, I would.

rake922 · 04-18-2008, 11:50 AM

Game is Monday night. +10.5 at vip

pico · 04-18-2008, 01:31 PM

damn justin. the line opened at +11.5 last night. i knew you unload on that. i know what you're up to...trying to move the lines and middle it. best of luck...i hope enough people follow you so you'll make a killing out of this no matter who wins.

you past picks are all winners, so i am pretty confident that +10.5 is an easy cover.

Bill Dozer · 04-18-2008, 02:21 PM

There is a lot of value in J7's AFL picks if you pay attention as soon as he posts them.

pico · 04-18-2008, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Dozer

There is a lot of value in J7's AFL picks if you pay attention as soon as he posts them.

bill, is there a way i can get email notification whenever justin makes a post?

topcat · 04-19-2008, 01:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin7

Columbus+11.5 vs Philadelphia

A lot of people are on Philadelphia. Graziani, one of the best QBs in the league, is expected to start for Phili after missing the last 5 weeks. Columbus's offense is 16th out of 17th for points generated. Returning shark QB versus an offensive pip-squeak should be a blowout, right?

A few counter points. D'Orazio has played very well for Phili in Graziani's absence. So well, in fact, that I don't make any line adjustment for Graziani returning.

Second, Columbus's offensive production isn't as bad as it looks. If you are "suppose to lose", good coaches slow the game down. This gives underdogs a better chance to win (and cover). The Destroyers are averaging only 10.3 possessions per game, compared to the league average of 12.5. I don't expect Phili to put up 56 points on 10 possessions.

Third, the game is at Columbus. In years past, I have used a home field advantage of about 1.5 points. This year, the league average has been 5 points. It was higher than last year also.

Fourth, Columbus has been unlucky. In 7 games, they have not recovered a single fumble on defense or kicking. While interceptions are highly correlated to offense and somewhat related to defense, fumbles are almost completely random. On the flip side, Phili has a +6 fumble turnover ratio, making their wins look better than they truly are. The two extremes in luck (and removing it) is worth another 5 point adjustment in the line.

My best bet this week is Columbus +11.5.

good luck on your play.

Justin7 · 04-19-2008, 01:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by topcat

good luck on your play.

It's just one of many.

tonight I had...
Ari+7 (loser)
Utah+7x (loser)
TB-6 (loser)
Utah/SJ UND123x (winner)

I lose a lot more than I post, so bet rationally. Never follow anyone blindly. That said, I'm really trying to give out my one best play each week, and I expect that one play to hit 55%+ if you can get the right number.

pico · 04-19-2008, 02:07 AM

i wish you cap MLB, justin

Justin7 · 04-19-2008, 02:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by picoman

i wish you cap MLB, justin

If Arena is a 0.05$/0.10% no limit game, MLB is 50/100. If you are going to beat MLB, you have to have either amazing early injury info, or the ability to download a starting lineup when it is released 90 minutes before the game, and price the game right then and there.

MLB is a tough beast to beat. It's easier to attack the smaller markets in MLB - run lines, reverse line, and second half betting... These are much less efficient, and less exploited by the computer groups.

pico · 04-19-2008, 02:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin7

If Arena is a 0.05$/0.10% no limit game, MLB is 50/100. If you are going to beat MLB, you have to have either amazing early injury info, or the ability to download a starting lineup when it is released 90 minutes before the game, and price the game right then and there.

MLB is a tough beast to beat. It's easier to attack the smaller markets in MLB - run lines, reverse line, and second half betting... These are much less efficient, and less exploited by the computer groups.

hehe. when you said the computer group, Michael Kent comes to my mind. i get your point. maybe you should cap challenger tennis and division 2 basketball games also. i am not sure if there are any books other than 5dimes offer lines for those events.

topcat · 04-19-2008, 03:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin7

It's just one of many.

tonight I had...
Ari+7 (loser)
Utah+7x (loser)
TB-6 (loser)
Utah/SJ UND123x (winner)

I lose a lot more than I post, so bet rationally. Never follow anyone blindly. That said, I'm really trying to give out my one best play each week, and I expect that one play to hit 55%+ if you can get the right number.

dont feel bad man,i had the over in the san jose game at 123'.they had a score of 61 at half.did i bet under in the second half,nope.utah looked like utter shit..utah leads the afl in 5 of six offensive stats.this was my dipshit game of the week.there will be better days for the both of us.