Justin's Arena Play of the Week?

HedgeHog · 04-11-2008, 11:17 AM

Just wondering if we'll get another gem like last week (Orlando

).

mofome · 04-11-2008, 11:18 AM

im waiting on this one as well.

Justin7 · 04-11-2008, 11:39 AM

I can't give it out it until I'm done betting it

I'll post it later today.

mofome · 04-11-2008, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin7

I can't give it out it until I'm done betting it

I'll post it later today.

HedgeHog · 04-11-2008, 11:54 AM

Tease!!!

louisvillekid · 04-11-2008, 12:28 PM

something seems fishy about that game to me, Orlando only favored 2.5 over the

ty Rampage, i know the Predators lost alot of good vets on D from free agency and they have like 9-10 rookies, but the D has come around, Gruden has always preached D with his team, and they switched Allison from DB to Jack LB and Moye-Moore is now the Mac LB. the Rampage might of looked good putting up 92 and 84 points against K.C. and L.A., but against teams that can play D , they only scored 35 against the Rush and 34 against the Dragons, and of course got blown out in those games. i ain't touching this game.
you can listen to that game if it ain't on TV in your area at......
540wfla

i'm on the Blaze cause they got Joe Germaine as QB thats all i need, and i was high on the Voodoo from the beginning and still am, and i like the Crush, i'm not sold on the new look Gladiators since they moved from Vegas to Cleveland.

Crush +3
VooDoo +6.5
Blaze +2

HedgeHog · 04-11-2008, 01:11 PM

LVkid: My reference to Orlando in the first post is about Justin's big winner last week. They were a TD 'dog that won outright. FWIW, I'm on Cleve ML tonite...-125.

Justin7 · 04-11-2008, 01:43 PM

My best bets of the week is Orlando-2.5 over Grand Rapids.

Grand Rapids has been the Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hide team, at least looking at scoreboards. In back to back weeks, they put up 83 and 84 teams under new QB McPherson before crashing into New York. But look closer at those two high scoring games... They were +5 on turnovers against a KC QB no longer there, and +4 in turnovers against LAA, including 3 fumbles for 28 defensive points.

One way to gauge a team's strength of schedule (SOS) rating is to take its opponents' combined records, after removing games with that team (so teams that blow out opponents don't look weaker due to an "easier schedule" for all teams losing 1 game to them). Orlando has an adjusted SOS rating of 0.6 (18-12) verus 0.33 for Grand Rapids (8-16). Despite facing a schedule nearly twice as difficult, Orlando is 4-2, versus GRR's 2-4 record.

Grand Rapids' new QB MacPherson (not to be confused with McPherson) threw 4 picks last week against an average NY defense. His overall passer rating is now about 95, versus 113 for Orlando. 95 doesn't cut it in Arena.

Every angle I have on this game makes Orlando a large favorite - I make it 8.5. This is my best bet this week, and I'd take Orlando at up to -3.5.

Justin7 · 04-11-2008, 01:48 PM

Edit - 92 and 84 point sby GRR.

Iwinyourmoney · 04-11-2008, 01:50 PM

I on with ya Justin, lets cash

donjuan · 04-11-2008, 02:12 PM

Justin,

How often does the 3 push in Arena?

HedgeHog · 04-11-2008, 02:13 PM

I got them at -2.5 at Wager Street, but they've already moved to 3 and 3.5 everywhere else I checked.

Justin7 · 04-11-2008, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by donjuan

Justin,

How often does the 3 push in Arena?

The 3 hits about as often as the 7 - 6.5 to 7%.

HedgeHog · 04-11-2008, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by donjuan

Justin,

How often does the 3 push in Arena?

Every time the Fav is -3 and wins by that many.

Actually it's a great question as I have a few places that I can by on/off the 3 for 10 cents. Is it worth it?

donjuan · 04-11-2008, 02:25 PM

Justin,

Thanks for that. There are still a few -2.5s out there as of this post.

Justin7 · 04-11-2008, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HedgeHog

Every time the Fav is -3 and wins by that many.

Actually it's a great question as I have a few places that I can by on/off the 3 for 10 cents. Is it worth it?

If an arena game is lined on a 3 or 7 and you can buy a half-point for 10 cents, you should always buy it.

If you can buy 2 half-points for 20 cents to cross a 3 or 7, you should always buy both.

In this case, I'd rather bet Orlando early, and get it at -2.5 for -110, instead of -130

hawaii04 · 04-11-2008, 02:57 PM

i dont think its a good idea. in arena football they score so much and miss so many extra points, 3 and 7 dont really make a diff

Justin7 · 04-11-2008, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hawaii04

i dont think its a good idea. in arena football they score so much and miss so many extra points, 3 and 7 dont really make a diff

The numbers would disagree with your hypothesis.

Similar to NFL, teams go for 2 when it will put them on a "7" or "3". They'll go for 2 to get on a "6" if it's their last drive also.

pokernut9999 · 04-11-2008, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin7

The numbers would disagree with your hypothesis.

Similar to NFL, teams go for 2 when it will put them on a "7" or "3". They'll go for 2 to get on a "6" if it's their last drive also.

Justin, quick question for you. Do they have 2 point conversions in AFL? Watched one game this year and there were a lot of missed PAT's and no one tried a 2 pt conversion. Then with a minute left the team trailing by 8 scored a TD and kicked instead of going for 2.