Arena play of the week

Justin7 · 03-21-2008, 02:36 PM

Cleveland Gladiators (+2x) over New Orleans Voodoo

This is another one of those lines that makes me scratch my head and go hmmm. I did a write up on the Gladiators last week. Columbus's Nagy had his best game of the season, but still couldn't overcome the Veteran Gladiator's offense.

Cleveland is still good, and their offense is consistent. Cleveland's Philyaw, always a consistent passer, has the league's highest pass rating for any starter. Their offense has generated nearly 58 points a game (in addition to defense and special teams scoring).

New Orleans is coming off its first win. Don't let the score of that game (76-55 New Orleans) fool you - Tampa Bay looked better on paper except for one statistic: its -6 Turnover differential in that game. New Orleans is still awful.

I make the fair line Cleveland -7. Playing them at +2.5 seems like a steal (which I like more than an ML of +110).

HedgeHog · 03-21-2008, 02:40 PM

Cleve is +3 at Bookmaker.

mofome · 03-21-2008, 02:41 PM

Thanks Justin.

diogee · 03-21-2008, 02:44 PM

Good luck Justin

Nice little write as usual.

Justin7 · 03-21-2008, 02:47 PM

I got +3 as well... But there are only +2s in Vegas, so +2x seemed fair.

Although it's not as strong, I also like the total under 118 (I make it 108.5, but the volatility in totals is much higher than spreads, so it's not as strong despite being 10 points off).

Justin7 · 03-22-2008, 10:56 AM

Ouch... 6 Cleveland turnovers doomed this.

jjgold · 03-22-2008, 12:48 PM

Justin how are these plays doing, just curious

Thanks

greek · 03-22-2008, 01:35 PM

Wonderin If Anybodies Good At This?

Justin7 · 03-22-2008, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjgold

Justin how are these plays doing, just curious

Thanks

My 3 "best plays" are 2-1. I've hit about 55% in my lifetime.

It gets much easier to cap starting next week - the computer models become much more accurate after you have 4+ weeks of data.

jjgold · 03-22-2008, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin7

My 3 "best plays" are 2-1. I've hit about 55% in my lifetime.

It gets much easier to cap starting next week - the computer models become much more accurate after you have 4+ weeks of data.

Ok thanks

mofome · 03-25-2008, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin7

My 3 "best plays" are 2-1. I've hit about 55% in my lifetime.

It gets much easier to cap starting next week - the computer models become much more accurate after you have 4+ weeks of data.

justin, if you want me to crunch some numbers for you just send me a pm. i'll delete it right away so willie bee cant read it.

Justin7 · 03-25-2008, 03:25 PM

If you're offering...

I haven't done HFA calculations in the last couple years. What's the HFA just looking at the last 3 years?

mofome · 03-25-2008, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin7

If you're offering...

I haven't done HFA calculations in the last couple years. What's the HFA just looking at the last 3 years?

Im going to need you to build me some referee profiles so i can refine my numbers.

Justin7 · 03-25-2008, 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mofome

Im going to need you to build me some referee profiles so i can refine my numbers.

For homefield advantages?

mofome · 03-25-2008, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justin7

For homefield advantages?

thats a distinct possibility. i will go back and put HFA in wikipedia again and see what it tells me to say.