Any experts on Rugby League or Union?

Dark Horse · 02-08-2006, 02:19 AM

I'm looking for a sport that is most like the NFL in terms of capping. Forget Arena. (Forget NBA and MLB too).

NBA betting is no good. Players don't care enough during the regular season. Why? Because there are too many games. It's a circus. Many games end within 2 points of the spread, which means that refs have a ridiculous influence over the win/loss ratio. In a 200 point basketball game, one basket often decides the wager. Compare those 2 points (1% of the total) to football. Refs would have to make a 0.4 pt mistake in a 40 point game to tilt the same wager from a winner to a loser. That is why basketball sucks, and why nobody can bet a season over 60% ATS, unlike football.

Anyway, the rugby season is about to start down under. And it runs through September. Perfect for an NFL junkie who doesn't like cold turkey. The problem is that there are two leagues. Rugby league and rugby union, and I have no idea where to start. If an Ozzie or Kiwi can shed some light on the subject, from a betting perspective, I'd much appreciate it.

mad · 02-08-2006, 03:14 AM

Both good sports, personally i am a union fan but must admit i'm a little out of touch. About to start firing up for the winter sports down here, i tend to follow "Aussie rules" mostly. It really depends where you are from in Oz, NSW (Sydney) and Queensland (Brisbane) are big rugby states, both league and union and of course the sheep shaggers (Kiwis) absolutely love the union. However at this stage it is still a bit early to say what's what, personally i like to watch the first couple of weeks to see how things shape up. The Super 14 fires up this week and of course the Six Nations is underway in Europe. I'm a little hungover today so i'm sorry if this post is a little scattered, however if and when i have something for ya i'll post it.

Dark Horse · 02-08-2006, 04:12 AM

Thanks! Good info. I guess I could go for Aussie Rules as well. Canbet offers all three. I guess I have to find a bettor's place, like wagerline.com, and see what percentages the experts are hitting for the season. Then go with the most cappable league.

Are there any key spreads, like 3 and 7 in football?

mad · 02-08-2006, 04:43 AM

In rugby yes, 5 points a try and two point conversion (7) and 3 points a penalty. In Aussie Rules its six points a goal and 1 point a miss. I find aussie rules to be a fairly high scoring game so key numbers aren't as big a factor as in NFL, but they also have a lot more betting options to cater for this fact. Their is a thread about this that Dan started titled "Odds to win the AFL premiership" in the More Sports forum. I posted some links in there to some interesting sites, don't really have a consensus wagering site but will look for one for you.

mad · 02-08-2006, 04:54 AM

Actually now that i think of it you'll find that with these sports the books tend to adjust the vig and not the line. As far as i know Canbet is a subsiduary of an aussie book called Internatrional All Sports or IAS. Most books that offer AFL (Pinnacle, Canbet and i think BetCris) will take their lead from the aussie books.

Some books (aussie) will offer several lines with different amounts of juice attached. By watching the odds shorten and/or lengthen will give you an indication of where the money is going. However I would also suggest shopping for value, if only for reduced juice. As with most markets Pinnacle is a must out, but that's hardly a surprise and i do believe the Mansion exchange will offer a market.

bigboydan · 02-08-2006, 10:58 AM

mad, i thought we were the only two nuts that bet on this sport! I see we have another aussie rules football fan here

mad · 02-08-2006, 11:58 PM

LMAO, a couple more fellas and we'll need our own forum with secret passwords.

bigboydan · 02-09-2006, 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mad

LMAO, a couple more fellas and we'll need our own forum with secret passwords.

mad, if theres enough traffic to warrent it. then i'll ask the admin's for section for it

mad · 02-09-2006, 11:41 AM

Heck mate i was only kidding. We might have some lurkers but i'd say it'll be you, Dark Horse and me by the looks of things. But that's OK we don't want to be giving away too many secrets

bigboydan · 02-09-2006, 11:54 AM

i just started wagering on this sport just last year. so, i'm still rather a newbie at it. hopefully soon enough i will be sharp in this sport like you guys are

Dark Horse · 02-09-2006, 05:59 PM

lol

Ignorance is bliss.

And I'm feeling blissful.

mad · 02-10-2006, 12:54 AM

Dan and Dark Horse.

Boys i think i have found a little gem here. As i have said i have been out of touch a little with rugby union in wagering terms but nevertheless this play has a good a shot as any IMO.

Rugby Union Super 14
Auckland Blues ML -183 (1.546)
ACT Brumbies ML -244 (1.410)

Better than even money return on a two team ML parlay. Auckland are the current NZ champs, playing at home. The Brumbies used to be a power house, not as good last year. They are playing a brand new team, first time playing in this comp ever. This team was only established last year and has a bunch of players drafted from all over the place and thrown together to make a team. I think the play is against them even at home to the more established albeit once powerful Brumbies. The prices i got from Pinnacle but i see they are not taking parlay wagers on this yet. The first game starts in an hour or so, so if you can get down in time i suggest throwing a unit (or whatever you're com-fart-able with) on this. Fingers crossed we'll be counting the $$$$$$ later.
Actually Canbet would be an option. (I used IAS = Canbets parent company).

Good luck fellas.

mad · 02-10-2006, 01:15 AM

HOLD IT, HOLD IT, HOLD IT. Stop the presses. News just in Brumbies have lost all but four of their starting fifteen. Flucking typical, i read this after i place the bet. Should be able to cancel. Hope you guys didn't take notice of this post yet. If so cancel your wagers or at least delay. I'm on the case and will try to confirm to be sure. Sorry boys.

mad · 02-10-2006, 01:41 AM

Of course no-one can definitively confirm or deny and i'm not entirely sure i trust the source. Seems a little extreme but stranger things have happened. I'm gonna keep my wager but you guys might be better off cancelling or ignoring this post. I'd hate for you to lose because of my stupidity.

If the source proves to be incorrect i will kick their ass, but better to be safe than sorry.

bigboydan · 02-10-2006, 02:08 AM

mad, thats way too much vig for me to lay in any game.

mad · 02-10-2006, 08:52 AM

Not that it matters now as the first leg lost. However in a ML parlay such as this one the odds:

1 unit wagered = 2.18 unit return.