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Old 01-18-2006, 01:23 PM   #1 (permalink)
bigboydan
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Default an indepth look at the NFL's version of the final four

Pro football is down to its version of the Final Four, with both the AFC Championship and NFC Championship games to be played Sunday. That means there are just three meaningful games remaining over the next three weeks, since there is a bye week between the championship games and Super Bowl XL in Detroit.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the company that dispenses odds to 90 percent of Nevada’s casinos, has been busy updating odds not only for the upcoming games but matchups that might not even take place. Odds and totals are already posted for the Pittsburgh-Denver contest, and the Carolina-Seattle tilt. But what about the Super Bowl that is now just a couple weeks away?

LVSC provided these odds for all four potential matchups set for Sunday, February 5 at Detroit’s Ford Field providing any major injuries. Denver has been installed as a three-point ‘chalk’ over Seattle, with the total set at 49. The Broncos would be a four-point favorite versus Carolina, with the total listed at 45 ½.

Should Pittsburgh advance to Super Bowl XL, the Steelers would open as a 2 1/2-point ‘chalk’ over the Seahawks with a total of 47. Pittsburgh would also entertain favored status over Carolina at 3 ½, with a total of 43 ½.

Future odds were also updated after Sunday’s finales, especially when favored Indianapolis was bounced out of the postseason. The Colts, armed with homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, were an ‘even’ selection to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy this season.

Denver is now favored to capture its third Super Bowl championship, and first since back-to-back titles in Super Bowl XXXII and XXXIII, at 3/2. Seattle and Pittsburgh both entertain 2/1 odds to run the table, while Carolina is the longest shot for its first title at 7/2.

It’s interesting to note that the Seahawks and Steelers have the same odds despite having completely opposite seedings this postseason. Seattle is the NFC’s top seed, and has homefield advantage for Sunday’s contest with Carolina.

Pittsburgh captured the sixth and final seed in the AFC by winning the last four games of the regular season. The Steelers are the first sixth seed to ever make a championship game. Head coach Bill Cowher is just 1-4 SU in AFC Championship games, with all five contests occurring in the Steel City.

Both Pittsburgh and Carolina are now trying to join the 1985 New England Patriots as the only teams in playoff history to win three straight road games to reach the Super Bowl. While that Patriots team made history by reaching the ultimate game, they were later steamrolled by Chicago in Super Bowl XX, 46-10.

Injuries are always a factor during this part of the season, and there are a couple of key injuries concerning running backs that will take center stage this week leading up to the NFC Championship game. Carolina’s DeShaun Foster is expected to miss the rest of the season due to a broken ankle, while Seattle running back (and league MVP) Shaun Alexander has been upgraded from ‘questionable’ to expected to play Sunday even though he suffered a concussion against Washington.

One would automatically assume that the home team has an overwhelming advantage in the league championship games, but home teams are a modest 17-13 straight up in those contests and 13-16-1 ATS.
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