Early plays for the week

outdrawed · 12-18-2007, 05:23 PM

I realize that nobody on the forum likes me and thinks I'm just a big meanie who should kill himself. But that's ok. I will post some of the plays I like so far, and reasoning for it and you can choose to play with me or go the other way and hope I die in a grease fire.

Bills +3

At home, getting 3 to a team that is barely (if at all?) better than them? Really? The Giants have been playing like ass the last couple of weeks. Bills should win this straight up. Take the points and/or the ML.

Total suggestion: O32.5

Not a play for me yet, but as long as Buffalo isn't expected to get a blizzard, 32 is just an insane total. I don't think any total has been this low all year, and we're not exactly dealing with two terrible offenses and two great defenses. Check the weather. If it looks decent enough, go over.

Bengals +3

The Browns are the public sweetheart. That alone should be enough to entice you to take the Bengals. But if it isn't, I'm going to shock you. Cincinatti is NOT a bad team. No really. Variance and a tough schedule have put them at 5-9, but they're closer to a .500 team than a .350 one. The Browns are better, but they're not that much better, and getting a FG at home (where Cinci has played much much better), is great.

Falcons +10.5

As bad as the Falcons have looked in the past couple of weeks, (and it's been reaaaaaal bad), the Cardinals shouldn't be 10+ favorites over anybody. This line is an overreaction to a couple of blowouts the Falcons have suffered, but let's be honest, the Falcons would have to be the worst team in the past 10 years to be 10.5 dogs to a below average team. Take the points, hope for a 24-14 game.

Dolphins +21.5

If the last several Pats games have shown anything, it's that they shouldn't be 20 point favorites every time they take the field. The cold weather has slowed their offense down considerably. I expect Belicheck to use a large dosage of Maroney in a relatively meaningless game.

BIG PLAY OF THE WEEK:

Bears +9

Hahahahahahaha. This might be the worst line I've seen all year. Back in Week 5 or whenever it was, the Packers were 3 point favorites at home to Chicago. They lost. Chicago hasn't been playing that much worse, and the Packers haven't played that much better, and we have a switch of HFA and a 6 point swing? Wow. The Packers are about a TD better on a neutral field. A divisional rivalry on the road? Take the points. This is my favorite play of the week at first glance, and I may put down 3 units on it for only the second time in my short 7-week career. I'm a red-hot 1-0 in 3 unit plays. Just call me Brandon Lang.

pokernut9999 · 12-18-2007, 06:44 PM

Dont ever recall Arizona ever covering a spread more than 7.

Ditaln1 · 12-18-2007, 06:46 PM

Holy cow Outdrawn! I agree with you on all expect Cincy! and I don't think anyone hates you. Hell, good arguments is healthy, that's why this is a sports forum open to everyone, long as no one insults each other.

CrazyL · 12-18-2007, 06:48 PM

I took the over in the Bills game last night.

Packers probably only going full speed for a half against Chicago, at least that's what some early talk is indicating.. Good luck with your plays..

babaoriley · 12-18-2007, 08:04 PM

For the record, I have no problem with you. And yeah, my early leans on those games are pretty much identical to yours. The turmoil in the Bengals locker room surrounding Palmer, Ocho, and Housh has me concerned enough to stay away from that one, however. I'll also be staying away from the Miami-NE game, though if anything I'd lean the Pats. I may just bet the Under of the Dolphins team total... The other 4 look good.

jayz00 · 12-18-2007, 08:25 PM

If i had to pick all those games, You might not be that far off from me outward..... But i got a thing for picking teams like the fins and atlanta to do anything.

I agree with the bears pick .......and getting closed to pulling the trigger on cincy..

GL man.... By the way i can't stand you LOL (i know you like it like that)

Redchevy · 12-18-2007, 08:36 PM

My take on the NE / Miami game is this. The weather was horrendous last week and it shut NE's offense down. It's supposed to be above 40 and sunny for this Sunday's game. Look for Brady and Moss to light it up and get closer to both of the records they are trying to break. Jason Taylor was on crutches today at a function and I believe Miami is happy to go 1-15. I won't lay the points here. Just my .02

Louisvillekid1 · 12-18-2007, 09:02 PM

Outdrawed,

BOL this week, I Love the Bills this week . . . No Opinion on your other plays.

outdrawed · 12-18-2007, 09:28 PM

BTW, if anybody hates any of my picks for whatever reason, feel free to say so in this thread. I promise I won't be too hard on you for being wron....er, having a difference in opinion.

outdrawed · 12-18-2007, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Redchevy

My take on the NE / Miami game is this. The weather was horrendous last week and it shut NE's offense down. It's supposed to be above 40 and sunny for this Sunday's game. Look for Brady and Moss to light it up and get closer to both of the records they are trying to break. Jason Taylor was on crutches today at a function and I believe Miami is happy to go 1-15. I won't lay the points here. Just my .02

I would love for it to be sunny and 40. Melt some of this snow we keep getting. (More tomorrow I heard). Then again, I'm about 3 hours north of Foxboro, so it'll probably 20 here regardless.

Interestingly enough, I'd be much more likely to take the Pats -21 if the game was in Miami. I'll check out the weather before I put any money down on the game. If it's indeed going to be 40, I may stay away as well.

CrazyL · 12-18-2007, 09:52 PM

I'm considering taking Pats 1st half -13.5. It'd be rolling the dice that the weather isn't absolutely extreme, if it is just a cold crumby day out this number should be covered.

NE could possibly step on the brakes with a cushion in the 3rd quarter, some people might start getting some rest if the game is pretty much controlled by halftime. I think, again weather permitted, NE could cover the spread at some point during the game but may get backdoored in garbage time.

jackpot269 · 12-18-2007, 10:07 PM

taking Bills and Bears!! not sure about the others yet!!

outdrawed · 12-23-2007, 03:00 PM

I ended up taking very few of my own plays this week due to personal issues and not being able to really analyze the games as much as I wanted.

3u on Bears +9
2u on Rams +8.5
1u on Bills +8.5/Titans -2.5
1u on Bengals +3 (-115)