[Peyton2MarvinN06]

I think I'm going a little large on this one... I know that the Fins are still hungry to get their first win, but I'm sorry it isn't gonna happen this week or this year! If the Ravens can get atleast McAllister or Rolle back then their secondary will be fine and their linebacking core is still top 3 in the game... Cleo Lemon couldn't hang on to the fvckin ball yesterday against the Bills... I think the Ravens will force 4 or 5 turnovers and probably take 1 or 2 to the house... McGahee should be able to run the ball on the Fins as well... The Ravens just didnt' have it last night against my Ponies, but they showed a week ago just how good they can be... I think they get focused for this Sunday and come strong! THEY DON'T WANNA BE THE TEAM THAT BREAKS THE DOLPHINS WINLESS SEASON! RAY LEWIS WILL BE ALL OVER THEM ABOUT THAT! Ravens by atleast a TD Sunday!

[imgv94]

Who is going to be the QB for the Ravens?

[The Seer]

Too many factors at play here (injury status, etc). Too early to tell.

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

Originally Posted by imgv94

Who is going to be the QB for the Ravens?

I'm pretty sure that Boller will start Sunday... Billick might experiment and go with Troy Smith, but I highly doubt it... Like I said earlier, the Ravens DO NOT want to be the team that loses to the Fins!

[CrazyLou]

Heck, I know the game was over last week and Troy basically scored with a minute or two left, but I'd roll the dice and let him play if he looks good in practice... He can make all the throws Boller can, and got a pretty nice compliment from John Madden saying he knows the game of football, so maybe he brings a spark here...

It's basically letting him play wiffle ball against the worst team in the league, don't think things could get too out of hand before letting Boller replace him anyway..

[mv09]

Miami plays close games and they wont fumble 8 times again.

I really want to bet on Miami, because id like to think they wont go 0 for whatever - but they've burned me a couple of times already.

With this line - Vegas is almost daring you to take Miami. I can see a lot of money on Baltimore and you know what happens when the public jumps on a team in big numbers ATS.

[imgv94]

I'd like Ravens -3 with Troy Smith starting... Might pump the team up with him in there.

[Seattle Slew]

A terrible game. Stay away.

[outdrawed]

Originally Posted by Seattle Slew

A terrible game. Stay away.

This is my feeling. I refuse to bet the Ravens on the road (huge home/away splits), and giving 3+ points sounds like suicide. That being said, I have been a huge proponent of the "Miami isn't that bad" thought process, but even I have to admit that this team is awful right now.

[roasthawg]

i'm all over the ravens...great value. i actually think both teams will be hungry though, the ravens are too professional ever to throw in the towel and you know miami wants that win.

[RageWizard]

Originally Posted by outdrawed

This is my feeling. I refuse to bet the Ravens on the road (huge home/away splits), and giving 3+ points sounds like suicide. That being said, I have been a huge proponent of the "Miami isn't that bad" thought process, but even I have to admit that this team is awful right now.

I have to fully agree, find another game.

[outdrawed]

Some numbers...

Since 2001, the Ravens have a +6.53 average MOV at home, and a -3.15 average MOV on the road. That's a 9.68 point difference.

In that same span, the Dolphins are +2.44 at home, -3.42 on the road. 5.86 point difference.

[tryintogetpaid]

I think the Fins win the first game, Cleo Lemon is back and looking OK and Gado is the new running back and is going to look to prove himself in the NFL.

[Sportsgirl]

Miami has given up 78 points in the last two games - 40 of those to the stinkin' Jets.

Ravens -3 easy.

[outdrawed]

I hope your columns are more detailed than that.

[Sportsgirl]

Originally Posted by outdrawed

I hope your columns are more detailed than that.

Not usually if I'm talking about Miami - I mean, really, what more can be said?

ALthough, regarding the Ravens, they typical have no offense, but have only scored less than 20 points five times this season - a big improvement over their typical offensive production.

[outdrawed]

They still don't have an offense. The points they've scored overexaggerate the offensive ability. They've played horrid defenses (Cleveland twice, Cinci twice, Jets, STL and SF). Also, just checked, you know I can just counter with, "yeah, but they've scored less than 21 points 6 times" right? Their offense sucks. Miami's defense sucks. Miami's offense sucks. This game is just a bucketful of suck. Suck suck suck.

[Sportsgirl]

Originally Posted by outdrawed

They still don't have an offense. The points they've scored overexaggerate the offensive ability. They've played horrid defenses (Cleveland twice, Cinci twice, Jets, STL and SF). Also, just checked, you know I can just counter with, "yeah, but they've scored less than 21 points 6 times" right? Their offense sucks. Miami's defense sucks. Miami's offense sucks. This game is just a bucketful of suck. Suck suck suck.

I'm sensing a little hostility here.

Kidding.


Yes, the Ravens offense is pretty sucky - I was just saying that it isn't quite as far in the shitter as the Dilfer Days. they are averageing over 17 points per game - do you really think they'll need more than that to beat a Dolphins D that's giving up an average of over 27 point per game? I think -3 is a gift here.

[outdrawed]

Keep in mind what I posted earlier. The Ravens are awful away from home, to the tune of almost a 10 point difference between playing at home and playing on the road in the past ~7 years. Is Baltimore a better team? Sure, and if the line was Baltimore -7 IN Baltimore, I'd be with you, but Baltimore giving 3.5 is too much IMO for a team that has been atrocious all year, and especially on the road.

(Actually, I haven't and may not even bet Miami, but I think Baltimore -3.5 is a sucker bet)

[RageWizard]

Originally Posted by Sportsgirl

I'm sensing a little hostility here.

Kidding.


Yes, the Ravens offense is pretty sucky - I was just saying that it isn't quite as far in the shitter as the Dilfer Days. they are averageing over 17 points per game - do you really think they'll need more than that to beat a Dolphins D that's giving up an average of over 27 point per game? I think -3 is a gift here.

Something smells bad in this game. Bal is a 3.5 fav which should mean you jump all over this game as the Miami offense will probably score that for Baltimore alone. Maybe its the fact that Miami has lost 6 games by exactly 3 points and its been a couple weeks since that has happened. I would stay away or if pressed take the over 37.5 if it goes down to 37. Miami's defense will give up 20 and the offense will give at least a touchdown, so all you need is for Miami to make 10 points a tall order but this is a prideful bunch who (if you caught the Jason Taylor interview) still think (delusionally) that they can win a game.

[LT Profits]

First off, I have to admit that this is just a gut feeling (or it could be gas, who the fvck knows?).

I think the Dolphins win their first game this week. You know Miami will be trying at least, and I think that the Ravens played their Super Bowl vs. New England and frankly don't give a hoot about the rest of the year. Besides, the Ravens are 0-6 ATS on the road this season while averaging 12.8 (count 'em) points per game. They haven't reached 20 points on the road since opening night in Cincinnati, including scoring 13 at Cleveland and 9 (as in NINE) at San Francisco.

[outdrawed]

LT,

Knock it off. The last thing I need is someone to convince me to bet the Dolphins. Nobody can convince me to bet the Ravens, because I know that's what the books want, but if I get tricked into betting Miami and they lose 48-2, I'm going to be pissed.

[Sportsgirl]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

First off, I have to admit that this is just a gut feeling (or it could be gas, who the fvck knows?).

I think the Dolphins win their first game this week. You know Miami will be trying at least, and I think that the Ravens played their Super Bowl vs. New England and frankly don't give a hoot about the rest of the year. Besides, the Ravens are 0-6 ATS on the road this season while averaging 12.8 (count 'em) points per game. They haven't reached 20 points on the road since opening night in Cincinnati, including scoring 13 at Cleveland and 9 (as in NINE) at San Francisco.

I'm gambling on the gas.

[LT Profits]

Originally Posted by outdrawed

LT,

Knock it off. The last thing I need is someone to convince me to bet the Dolphins. Nobody can convince me to bet the Ravens, because I know that's what the books want, but if I get tricked into betting Miami and they lose 48-2, I'm going to be pissed.

LOL....understood!

Personally, I've been accused of betting on too many crappy teams, so of course those 48-2 losses happen to a dog-lover like me. Unlike you though, it wouldn't bother me all that much, as it would not be a larger than average bet. Anytime I get blown out in a game like that, I keep reminding myself of all the nice dogs that I've won with, and that I wouldn't have won those games if, like others, I refuse to bet bad teams when the price is right.

Now...DON'T BET THE DOLPHINS and STAY FAR AWAY from this game! Is that better?

[outdrawed]

You've been accused of betting too many crappy teams? I've bet the Dolphins 4 straight weeks leading into this week.

[Doc JS]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

I think the Dolphins win their first game this week...

LT,
You may be right...but this is the third week in a row I've heard the same tired refrain.

The Dolphins were going to get their first win at home against the Jets - 40-13.

The Dolphins were going to get their first win at Buffalo - 38-17.

The Dolphins are going to get their first win against the Ravens who, supposedly, thrown in the towel after losing to New England and getting spanked by the Colts.

I know the Dolphins are attractive because they're a home dog, but remember...<southern twang start>that dawg will bite you!</end southern twang>. LOL

Doc

[imgv94]

Some people like to pick dogs cause it makes them appear smart and different than the average handicapper.

Nonetheless one point that should be mentioned is the fact that the Ravens still have an amazing Run Defense, Miami will probably have no more than 40 yards rushing in the game.

Ask yourself this question. Can Cleo Lemon beat the Ravens?

[Doc JS]

Originally Posted by imgv94

Ask yourself this question. Can Cleo Lemon beat the Ravens?

Gabe,

I think this game is all about the Ravens and the attitude they bring to this game than it is about the Dolphins.

The Dolphins are getting worse - not better as the season winds down.

If the Ravens show up interested in playing - they win and cover. If they don't... If they've packed it in... If the Pats and Colts broke their collective spirit, the Dolphins can cover and even win outright.

[LT Profits]

Originally Posted by Doc JS

LT,
You may be right...but this is the third week in a row I've heard the same tired refrain.

Doc,

OTHERS have picked the Dolphins to win in recent weeks, but this is actually the first time that I have been on them since they played the Giants in London.

[imgv94]

Good Luck LT.. Always like to get your thoughts on games..

[AZZY]

Originally posted by Peyton2MarvinN06:
"THEY DON'T WANNA BE THE TEAM THAT BREAKS THE DOLPHINS WINLESS SEASON! RAY LEWIS WILL BE ALL OVER THEM ABOUT THAT! Ravens by at least a TD Sunday!"

I agree with you Peyton2MarvinN06. There are a lot of possible slants on this game, but I think you hit the nail on the head. No team wants to be the one and only team that got beat by MIA this year. I'm with you on Baltimore for that very reason (plus the fact that Miami just isn't that good).

GL to all.

AZZY

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

Originally Posted by AZZY

I agree with you Peyton2MarvinN06. There are a lot of possible slants on this game, but I think you hit the nail on the head. No team wants to be the one and only team that got beat by MIA this year. I'm with you on Baltimore for that very reason (plus the fact that Miami just isn't that good).

GL to all.

AZZY

Gentlemen and Sportsgirl, I appreciate the comments and the feedback on this game! Honestly, I don't really want to overthink this one... I'm telling you that Ray Lewis and Ed Reed will have this team pumped up this Sunday!!! They meet every week to watch film and these two will be taking this game just as serious as any other game! They will reinforce OVER AND OVER that they are NOT GOING TO BE THE TEAM TO LOSE TO THE DOLPHINS! I don't really care if Smith or Boller plays @ QB... McGahee will be able to run the ball on the Fins... Baltimore's D will force atleast 3 or 4 turnovers! Yeah, this could be a close game, but I don't think Big Ray and E-Reed will let anything crazy happen! As I said before, RAVENS BY A TD PLUS!!!

[imgv94]

Peyton your instincts are like a japanese swordsmen. I'm on board..

Balt -3 for me though

[durito]

I'm starting to think this Miami team may actually go 0-16, which IMO is probably just as hard or harder than 16-0. The odd part is that they really weren't that bad a team earlier in the season and their season to date stats don't reflect this bad of a team. But, after all the injuries, their recent games have shown a really bad team.

This Ravens team isn't that good on the year, but if both starting CB's are playing their D changes entirely.

Winless home dogs (0-5 or worse) are still 67% the last 23 years, but I really don't want to back this Dolphins team that seems to be getting worse weekly.

I think this is a game best to pass on, but good luck to those of you playing.

edit: fwiw the only other 0-13 team in my database the last 23 years was the colts in 1986 - who won their last 3 games straight up

[rugbybdyb]

I have to say that the fins dont look great this year and I hope they go totally defeated this year, not because I dont like the fins just because I have to see someone loose every game sometime in my life.