[Peyton2MarvinN06]

Here are some reason why I believe that the Fins will win this Sunday @ Joe Robbie/Pro Player/Miami Dolphins stadium:

New York Jets offense 30th in total yards/game- 280.8
New York Jets defesne 30th in total yards given up/game- 366.3

New York Jets offense 26th in points/game avg- 16.5
New York Jets defense 28th in points/game given up- 25.3

I know that a the Fins are down at the bottom of the barrell in several of those categories as well, but I really think this is the week that the Dolphins get it done...

Beck has looked "decent" under center that last couple of weeks... I can sure as hell tell you who his favorite target is- Marty Booker! If it weren't for Booker on Monday Night, the Dolphins wouldn't have moved the ball at all! This Jets team has moved Kellen Clemens into the starting QB spot and while they beat the Steelers two weeks ago, look what happened last Thursday in Dallas... The Jets beating the Steelers had a hell of a lot more to do about their defense than Clemens making any plays at all on offense...

The Fins DO NOT want to be put in the same category as the sherbet orange jersey wearing Tampa Bay Bucs! The Dolphins have lost 6 games now by 3 points or less! I would have never thought that a play on an 0-11 team would look so good, but it really does to me in this situation...

Look how much pressure the Fins D put on WorthlessBurger on Monday Night... I know the field conditions had a lot do with that, but even so they still had to be the ones getting to the QB! I believe they will pressure Clemens a lot, forcing him to throw the ball away, force it into coverage, or take a sack... The Fins will probably get a steady dose of Thomas Jones on Sunday because of their inability to slow down Willie Parker on a wet field...

This is the Fins best chance of their last 5 to get a win... They could still beat Buffalo if they were to lose this one, but I really think they want to get it done this week! They have been so close over the last few weeks and THIS IS THE WEEK IT HAPPENS!

I am not a Dolphins fan whatsoever(hated Marino a whole lot), but I think this is a great spot for a play on this team!

Anyone else hoppin on board the 0-11 train with me?

[B1GER1C828]

im gna go on fins almost no doubt in my mind should b an easy pick

[rugbybdyb]

I just dont think the fins can do it. They have essentially two no namers at the feature postions QB and RB, and although they held pitt to one field goal I dont think they can contain the jets passing offense.

[RageWizard]

I to like the Deadfins. I don't like the fact of New York coming in after 10 days rest and the Deadfins having a short week. But, if Miami is gonna win a gaime, this will be their best shot. A look at the ATS shows otherwise. The Deadfins haven't beaten the Jets (ATS) since Week 2 of 2003. They tied the spread this year, but all other games have been a loss. Deadfins have been 2-0-2 ATS since playing the Patriots in Week 7 this year. Some people will have them at 4-0 with the Buffalo and Philly game both having lines move in their favor since I recorded the line for my history. When you put all of the facts together, it will probably be wise not to bet on a 0-11 team that is giving points even though the Jets suck just as bad.

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

I'm gonna go ahead and make this an avatar play for this week! Call me crazy, but I really like the Fins this weekend! 1-0 so far this year on AVY plays!

GV, Nevadaside, what are your takes on this game?

Rage,
Thanks for those ATS stats man... Good to hear another solid capper is on the Fins as well! Let's get this done!

Any other sharps that wanna weigh in on this game feel free!

Thanks in advance!

P2M

[biggamer3]

Only saying this because you are a homer

Phins can and will be the worst NFL team in history

[outdrawed]

Originally Posted by rugbybdyb

I just dont think the fins can do it. They have essentially two no namers at the feature postions QB and RB, and although they held pitt to one field goal I dont think they can contain the jets passing offense.

Uh...what passing offense? They're 20th in passing efficiency.

I'm on Dolphins -1. I've been on the Dolphins for three straight weeks and I see no reason not to be on them this week. They're the better team and they're at home.

[outdrawed]

Originally Posted by biggamer3

Only saying this because you are a homer

Phins can and will be the worst NFL team in history

lol. This isn't even close to being true. The Dolphins aren't even the worst team in their division THIS YEAR. Hell, even if they end up losing the next 5 games, they won't even be close to the worst NFL team in history.

[durito]

This is the first game I have in my database where a winless team of 0-10 or worse that's been a favorite.

Though teams on long losing streaks are excellent bets in division games (26-4-2 ATS for teams that have lost 8 or more in a row -- thought only 1-2 as a favorite)

I think Miami gets that first win here.

[biggamer3]

Originally Posted by outdrawed

lol. This isn't even close to being true. The Dolphins aren't even the worst team in their division THIS YEAR. Hell, even if they end up losing the next 5 games, they won't even be close to the worst NFL team in history.

Explain why a team that can go 0-16 and not have a RB to get more than 600 or 700 yards, a Qb without 10 Td's or a receiver with even normal pedestrian stats not be one of the worst teams ever

[durito]

Originally Posted by biggamer3

Explain why a team that can go 0-16 and not have a RB to get more than 600 or 700 yards, a Qb without 10 Td's or a receiver with even normal pedestrian stats not be one of the worst teams ever

Kind of hard to have those kind of stats when they are on their 3rd starting QB and RB.

[Mr Nuts]

I like the Jets in this one.

[biggamer3]

Originally Posted by durito

Kind of hard to have those kind of stats when they are on their 3rd starting QB and RB.

Of course

Obviously if everyone was healthy they would have a couple wins, but the final product including injuries could be the worst ever

[outdrawed]

Originally Posted by biggamer3

Explain why a team that can go 0-16 and not have a RB to get more than 600 or 700 yards, a Qb without 10 Td's or a receiver with even normal pedestrian stats not be one of the worst teams ever

Wow. Let's see. Chatman is averaging 4.23 ypc. If he was given the chance to run 20 times per game, he'd have about 1300 yards at his current pace. Chatman's no Ronnie Brown, but he's done fine considering his team has played some very good rush defenses recently and on terrible turf. The Dolphins OL has been above average.

As for the passing game, I'm not going to judge Beck after two games, one of which was just had terrible conditions to anything offensively. He's not terrible.

On the defensive side, they rank higher than 6 other teams in terms of defensive efficiency. Let's compare them with the 49ers, who are 3rd worst in pass defense and rush defense, and worst in pass offense. The 49ers are much worse than the Dolphins.

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

Originally Posted by biggamer3

Only saying this because you are a homer

Phins can and will be the worst NFL team in history

Get fvcking lost dude! Who said you could come into my threads and start talkin shvt... I've already had enough of this just reading all the shvt with Pags over the last week! People like myself actually take time out of our day to CAP GAMES(something you probably have never heard of) and post USEFUL information to other GRACIOUS cappers that they can put together with their own research and knowledge to make a decision on who to bet on for a particular weekend... YOU ARE GARBAGE MAN... Let's see you grow a pair and post some plays! Atleast I see myself as someone who contributes to this forum, rather than just going into others threads and talkin shvt... Let's see your plays for this weekend you fvck stick!!! Have you ever said anything on this forum that was worth anyone taking the time to read? Alright, I didn't think so! You just keep followin along on everyone elses plays and keep making money because WE KNOW WHAT THE FVCK WE ARE TALKING ABOUT! If you don't have anything worth our time to read than DON'T POST! GET FVCKING LOST!

I believe we have atleast several sharp cappers in here that believe that the Fins will win on Sunday! This is not the worst team in NFL history by any stretch of the imagination... They have LOST 6 GAMES BY 3 POINTS OR LESS! There is no way they are one of the worst teams ever!

Thanks everyone else for your WORTHWHILE thoughts on this game for Sunday!

[Illusion]

P2M and biggamer, this is a great thread. Let's stay away from personal attacks and stay on topic please.

[curious]

Originally Posted by Peyton2MarvinN06

I'm gonna go ahead and make this an avatar play for this week! Call me crazy, but I really like the Fins this weekend! 1-0 so far this year on AVY plays!

GV, Nevadaside, what are your takes on this game?

Rage,
Thanks for those ATS stats man... Good to hear another solid capper is on the Fins as well! Let's get this done!

Any other sharps that wanna weigh in on this game feel free!

Thanks in advance!

P2M

Excuse me for being ignorant. What is an AVY play?

[roasthawg]

if i had to bet i'd take the fin's...i got them as 2pt favs, not enough value for me to mess with it though but like i said i like them to win.

[nevadaside]

Originally Posted by curious

Excuse me for being ignorant. What is an AVY play?

"Avatar play",
when it's a big enough play to change your avatar, that's like big time for cappers like P2M & imgv to do that.

P2M,
I like it man, you always put some good thought into this stuff. You've been focused in NFL this year man.....I wouldn't want to go against you. I have to admit I haven't been too much into NFL this year, but MIAMI did not roll over @ PITT in terrible conditions, so they should be able to get it done if they stay focused. I like Beck, liked him @BYU & think he'll do this team right.

Just ignore that other crap in your thread bro, you're a capper above all that nonsense.

GL as alwayz my friend.....

[louis]

Other than win/loss statistic, Miami is statistically much better than the Jets. I will definitely take them, -1. I think its a great bet.

[babytyger]

Two shitty teams take the home team "MIAMI".

[pags11]

peyton,

keep fighting the good fight bro...GL this week...

[durito]

The only thing that gives me pause about this game is the fact that Miami is favored. As I've written a bunch here this year, winless teams are great bets, but only as dogs. I realize it's only -1, and there's no history of a team being winless this late being favored so I'm not sure it's that significant that they are a favorite.

That aside, Miami is most certainly the better team here. It's really tough to go winless for a season in the NFL, and I'm sure the Dolphins realize this is their best chance for a win. I'm still looking at the numbers, but I will probably play this game.

[jon13009]

New York Jets (+1) @ Miami Dolphins
--------------
Str of Sched: New York Jets 46.13 Miami Dolphins 63.23
--------------
New York Jets O(30) RO(20) PO(25)
Miami Dolphins D(16) RD(30) PD(3)

Miami Dolphins O(27) RO(15) PO(26)
New York Jets D(30) RD(31) PD(19)

2 Lousy teams. Looks like both teams have poor passing games, with MIA's pass D being among the NFL's best against a strong schedule. Miami has an edge on both fronts, a stronger D, and MIA will likely try to run through the NYJs poor D line as an improving Beck will make a completion here and there. What Clemens and the Jets will do is the real question here.
------
Public 50% (at MIA -1),
source:

http://www.thespread.com/nfl-footbal...-betting-chart
---------
My numbers have MIA winning by more than 2 points here, and most stat predictors have MIA covering (winning by 2); however there are some noted exceptions with Sagarin having this game as a virtual push.

Source:
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com//prednfl.html
-----------------
Miami has had a relatively tougher schedule and a number of close losses this year. The Jets beat MIA at home in week 3 (31-28), and the Jets had a good win v. PIT 2 weeks ago. I would like to say the Fins looked good last MNF game v. PIT, but that field was a total mess and said little about either team.

No clear winner here, but given the Dolphin's situation, I like MIA at home with motivation strongly on their side as the Dolphins know they can (and better) win this game.
------------
Play MIA (-1) 0.5 Units.
-------------
GL to both sides.

[outdrawed]

"Looks like both teams have poor passing games, with MIA's pass D being among the NFL's best against a strong schedule."

Every time people use ypg as a measure of a team's ability on defense, I want to scream.

Miami has given up the 3rd fewest yards per game through the air in the league. That has nothing to do with them having a good pass defense, and everything to do with teams getting an early lead and running the ball the whole game. Teams have thrown on Miami 267 times, fewest in the league. Only one other team (Oakland), has had fewer than 300 pass attempts again. On that note, Miami is giving up an insane 7.66 yards per attempt, which is good for 3rd worst in the league. Miami's pass defense sucks, but since their run defense does too, and they have seldom been in the lead all year, teams aren't passing on them.

The same applies for the Jets. They aren't 19th in pass defense. They're dead last in yards per attempt, and second to last according to DVOA.

The lesson is this. Yards per game is a terrible stat to measure a team's ability to do something. I have a feeling I'm going to be repeating this for the rest of this season, and well into next season.

[azgrande18]

I would just play the under 37.5

[jon13009]

Originally Posted by outdrawed

"Looks like both teams have poor passing games, with MIA's pass D being among the NFL's best against a strong schedule."

Every time people use ypg as a measure of a team's ability on defense, I want to scream.

Miami has given up the 3rd fewest yards per game through the air in the league. That has nothing to do with them having a good pass defense, and everything to do with teams getting an early lead and running the ball the whole game. Teams have thrown on Miami 267 times, fewest in the league. Only one other team (Oakland), has had fewer than 300 pass attempts again. On that note, Miami is giving up an insane 7.66 yards per attempt, which is good for 3rd worst in the league. Miami's pass defense sucks, but since their run defense does too, and they have seldom been in the lead all year, teams aren't passing on them.

The same applies for the Jets. They aren't 19th in pass defense. They're dead last in yards per attempt, and second to last according to DVOA.

The lesson is this. Yards per game is a terrible stat to measure a team's ability to do something. I have a feeling I'm going to be repeating this for the rest of this season, and well into next season.

This post is the reason why I will no longer present handicapping comments on SBR.

I am merely presenting Miami's pass defensive rating as it appears in general. I agree that my label of Miami's pass D as one of the best in the NFL is wrong, and would have respectfully indicated that this was a superficial analysis of this game (after I punched the stats into my spreadsheet, my numbers still had MIA winning by 4, but I have yet to look closely at the numbers), but you know what, go ahead and scream because you and the rest of you asswipe DVOA preachers can go and jam it up your pieholes.

Preach away dickhead.

If you want to present an opinion on this game then do it in a positive light towards fellow posters - not in an arrogant and self inflated nature to others. If you want to teach me then teach me - don't treat me (and other posters) like we are a retarded fools.

I will just enjoy playing the prick contest with the rest of the majority of the "posters" here and making meaningless one line comments from now on because I am too friggin sensitive and stupid in light of educated DVOA posters like outdrawed - that enjoy taking my posts and turning them into insults or having them redirected and misinterpreted into self-serving touts for themselves.

GL.

[outdrawed]

You took my comment way too seriously. I'm sorry if it offended you, and I probably should have left my first statement out. Also, it's unfair to blame the forums for the actions of one poster who registered a week ago and has very few posts.

Again, the comment wasn't meant to be taken personally. I have a habit of being overly sarcastic in my posts. I'll try to watch it from now on.

[Mr Charles 76]

Originally Posted by outdrawed

Uh...what passing offense? They're 20th in passing efficiency.

I'm on Dolphins -1. I've been on the Dolphins for three straight weeks and I see no reason not to be on them this week. They're the better team and they're at home.

How bad do you have to be (Jets) to be dogged to MIA.

[outdrawed]

There are probably 8 teams or so that would be dogs in Miami. I would take Miami in a pickem against probably half the teams in the NFL if they played in Miami.

[roasthawg]

Originally Posted by azgrande18

I would just play the under 37.5

i 2nd that...the under here is one of my big plays of the week, wouldn't be surprised to see a 10-3 game or something ugly like that.

[sikballplaya24]

I have Jets

[tblues2005]

I have the Dolphins here too because how can a team that is 0-11 be favored on anyone? The line maker thinks the Dolphins have a chance and that is why I am saying they could win their first game of the year this Sunday. The Jets are pretty bad this year and they are playing on the road too and down there they may have a hard time winning this one. It is going to be a pitiful game.

[AC1318]

also on miami here

along with

phi -3
ari -1
no -3
st lou -3
wash -6
min -3.5

[joeygats]

o