[bigboydan]

I know Baltimore is have a bad year and all, but yet I still find that they have some very good value +21 points.

Even despite the Baltimore offense being as bad as they are, they do have a decent defense still. I think they can contain Moss just like the Eagles did last week.

[CrazyLou]

They would need their defense to put them in position to get some points on the board. I don't think Baltimore will be able to go down the field on them like Philly did. Brian Billick is struggling to find a rhythm offensively.

One thing that's scary though is that 'humble pie' that Belichick will serve his team this week. Last time they last shown any real weakness they rebounded with a 46 pt victory.

[joeygats]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

I know Baltimore is have a bad year and all, but yet I still find that they have some very good value +21 points.

Even despite the Baltimore offense being as bad as they are, they do have a decent defense still. I think they can contain Moss just like the Eagles did last week.

i hope your not serious cause the pats will win by atleast 30 ravens can not score look what the chargers did to them plz pick pats gl

[beaneaters]

I've already made my bet on the Pats. The line is only going to go higher, and if an offensively-challenged team like San Diego can hang 32 on the Ravens as nine point faves, a pissed off New England team could do twice as much damage.

[DrunkenLullaby]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

Even despite the Baltimore offense being as bad as they are, they do have a decent defense still. I think they can contain Moss just like the Eagles did last week.

This thought process will be the undoing of many a bettor this week. Dan, think about the strong point of Balt's defense....and think about how incredibly meaningless that is against the NE offense.

Good luck.

[tryintogetpaid]

New England is going to wax the floor with an old / injured D of the Ravens. You know Bill B ripped into his players this week and I look for them to score on every drive, all the way to the end.

Still waiting on BetUs to add this game....

[durito]

Another week another record pointspread.

The highest home dog I have in my data back to 1978 is 16.5 . 49ers were in this game as well, though as the dog vs the Colts on 10/9/05.

10+ home dogs are now 62-47-2 ATS since 1985

[Doc JS]

Originally Posted by crazyl

Brian Billick is struggling to find a rhythm offensively.

crazl,
I think this qualifies for the understatement of the year award.

He's been struggling to find a offensive rhythm since he got to Baltimore.

Billick has gone through QB's hand over fist since he's been in Baltimore. He has never put up the offensive numbers that he was given credit for when he was the OC in Minnesota. They won their Super Bowl with Trent "don't screw it up and our defense will win the game" Dilfer at QB.

Doc

[biggamer3]

Gotta take NE here

Baltimore lost to the Chargers by 18 and they should have lost by more

Pats win by 30+

[The Seer]

Originally Posted by Doc JS

crazl,

He has never put up the offensive numbers that he was given credit for when he was the OC in Minnesota.
Doc

I think it had more to do with Chris Carter, Randy Moss, Randall Cunningham, and Robert Smith than the genius Billick.

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

I know Baltimore is have a bad year and all, but yet I still find that they have some very good value +21 points.

Even despite the Baltimore offense being as bad as they are, they do have a decent defense still. I think they can contain Moss just like the Eagles did last week.

Dan,

I'm on board on this play with you bud... I was on the Eagles this past Sunday Night and that turned out pretty good... I don't care how bad the Ravens have played this season... Ray Lewis will have the defense fired up for a Monday Night game against the best team on the planet! If the Ravens can score 13 or more points then I think they can cover this one!

[Dark Horse]

Pats defense had an off-day (in terms of giving up points and keeping offense off the field). They should be back with a vengeance. Pats were getting fat and happy. Not anymore after that near debacle against Philly. Bellichick won't allow two weeks in a row like that.

So far this season teams in spread range of more than 10 pts are 6-1 ATS in a combined angles system I use. Line is down to 20.5 and 20, so three TD's wins it.

[imgv94]

I teased the Pats down to -13.5 Am I crazy?

[bigboydan]

I think you are in this particular case IMG. If anything you should have probably teased it up instead of down. I mean 13.5 points is still a ton of points for any NFL to cover, no matter how good that team might be.

[Robert Schroeder]

Originally Posted by imgv94

I teased the Pats down to -13.5 Am I crazy?

I think you're alright here, New Englands defense will be fired up as well. The colder the better for New England.

[Dark Horse]

I'd be surprised if the Ravens score more than 7 pts. They're terrible on offense. So how hard could it be for Pats to cover this one?

[louis]

Philly had the 6th rated offense, and 9th rated defense in the league. Baltimore is rated 24th in offense but 4th in defense.

I expect a 31 to 10 kind of game.

Not going to bet Baltimore.

But I like the UNDER. Like it a lot.

[imgv94]

I just thought -14 is a key number here. Only two TDs.

I've never teased a team to -13.5 before. But hey theres a first for everything.

[tblues2005]

you could add points in a teaser sure looks good. Could you imagine getting +30 or more in a 4-team teaser, sure looks good to me.

[DrunkenLullaby]

Originally Posted by louis

Baltimore is rated 24th in offense but 4th in defense.

But I like the UNDER. Like it a lot.

I'm warning you guys again to seriously consider the strengths & weaknesses of Baltimore's "highly-ranked" defense and how they match up with NE's offense.

[patsfan2727]

Originally Posted by DrunkenLullaby

I'm warning you guys again to seriously consider the strengths & weaknesses of Baltimore's "highly-ranked" defense and how they match up with NE's offense.

Wait, is this the same "highly ranked defense" that let Cleveland go down the field and score a game tying FG with 16 seconds??? hmmmm.....

[DrunkenLullaby]

Pats, re-read my post. We are in agreement.

[tblues2005]

patsfan that what DrukenLullaby means here they allowed San Deigo a ton of points, I think their defense is getting old if you ask me.

[prop]

Teasing up is usually not a good idea on high spreads because often books will post the same alternate line at between -220 to -260 (as low as -200) at Pinnacle so you'd just be paying a lot more for the same bet.

For example last week Dolphins were +15.5 and Pinnacle had +21.5 -206 on the alternate line - so teaser bettors got a really bad price on that particular leg if they teased the Dolphins up.

[durito]

Baltimore's defense has been terrible against the pass with Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister out, but good when they both play. McAlister sat out again last week, but may play this week. Rolle played Sunday for the first time in 6 weeks.

They've been great against the run all year (2.93 yds per run now, after taking out kneel downs). But, New England has no problem passing the ball on every play.

If the two CB's play and can be as good as they were together early in the season, I think Baltimore can put a up a good defense against New England. But, if the pass defense is as bad as it has been the past 6 weeks, they will lose by 30+.

[durito]

Teams that have lost 5 in a row SU and ATS are 40-21-0 ATS at home in their next game since 1985 (29-15 ATS as a dog).

Also, teams that win high scoring close games at home (ie won, but didn't cover, and went over the total) do very poorly as road favorites the next week (38-59-3 ATS) including 6-20 ATS as a favorite of 7 or more.

[NapoleonEli]

Im not touching this game.. .I do belive the Ravens might hold up though ..

[outdrawed]

Originally Posted by patsfan2727

Wait, is this the same "highly ranked defense" that let Cleveland go down the field and score a game tying FG with 16 seconds??? hmmmm.....

...

You're using one drive as evidence that Baltimore defense isn't good?

[joeygats]

Originally Posted by outdrawed

...

You're using one drive as evidence that Baltimore defense isn't good?

ok raven backers gl but plz dont do it ravens lost to the bills? and got blown out by pitts and chargers who are not as good as the pats they will cover if the spread was -38 but like i said gl

[outdrawed]

Originally Posted by joeygats

ok raven backers gl but plz dont do it ravens lost to the bills? and got blown out by pitts and chargers who are not as good as the pats they will cover if the spread was -38 but like i said gl

If you think the spread should be -38, you should putting like half of your bankroll on the Pats.

[roasthawg]

i'm on the ravens pretty big this week...i haven't rode the pats too hard but i'm still up on them for the yr. i'm seeing an easy 10 pt win for the pats but no 3 td blowout...baltimore's style of play has a tendancy to keep games close, i love the pts in this one!!!

[bigboydan]

Glad I got down on this one early, because I see a few 18's floating out there right now.

[PuttPutt]

Listen here boys, Pats will cover and the score will be something like 35 to 3. I dont see baltimore scoring at all. That is why i like the pats and under. I just hope they dont score to many points and the over hit.

Patriots by 32 points.

[goodfella]

i got the pats but it scares me that most people are doing the same

[SexyMit]

I think I am going to take Baltimore +21. Gl to everyone public is all on New England got the other way so that is what I am doing... gl to all no matter what you do... GL to you also bigboydan I'm there with you just like I was on NMS on friday made alot of money on that game.