[atakdog]

I guess it's widely believed that teasing across the 3 and the 7 can be a slightly good deal in the NFL. Well, I think I have an even better plan, if you have an account at a book that deals strange lines in the vicinity of these numbers.

Specifically, suppose your book offers something like +3 -125 or even as much as -135 when the market is +2.5 -110. I have seen a couple of these recently at Bodog (yeah, I know, but it's worth it for the strange lines sometimes). If you were to include this line in a parlay you'd have to pay extra to buy the line to -110 before the payout was calculated, but I gather that it's normal to find fixed odds on teasers. In other words, if +3 -135 is roughly equivalent to +2.5 -110 (which the half-point calculator confirms), by teasing this number you get the benefit of a free half point -- you tease it to +9, getting the same odds as the rest of the world going to +8.5. If +8.5 is a slightly good deal, then +9 should pay for itself in the long run.

Have I missed something here?

There's a variant available right now for MNF on Bodog, which has SF +10 -125 and the total at u37 -115. Teasing these to +16 and u43, or +17 and u44, should be good because it effectively crosses the 10, 13, and 14 (and gets onto 17 in the latter case); further, these two results should be positively correlated.

Again, what am I missing (other than having to put money on a terrible 49ers team)? This seems too good to be true.

[atakdog]

A related question, for the math guys: how valuable should one expect the correlation of over and favorite, or under and dog, to be in its effect on a teaser?

[atakdog]

I am reminded, now, that even getting 17, if you've bet on a team that's absolutely horsesh1t...

I still think the math is right on this type of bet, and would appreciate comments.

[ensign_lee]

Yes, being able to get essentially get a free half point with basing a teaser off a line of +3 (-130) instead of +2 (-110) is good.

[prop]

Thinks about what you're laying

If you were betting these straight which one would you chose?
+10 -135
+16 -262

I would chose +10 -135 because the 6 extra point is certainly not work -262. But i would probably not even need to chose this because +9.5 -110 or +10 -120 is likely available at other sites with some line shopping which would be the better options. The one I would never chose is the +16 -262

However when you see +3 -135, then certainly this would be worth teaser, as its equivalent to +2.5 -110 and falls into a basic strategy teaser.

For totals you'll rarely ever be able to tease at a better price then you could just bet it straight on an alternate line.

[prop]

oops. I completely ignored the correlation aspect of this.
I certainly personally did not give it a lot of value because I had two bets in this game:
I bet Seattle -9.5
and I bet under 31.5 +200
I agree though that the correlation is there but math wise I am only a bit over average in that department so I'll leave that question for someone else.

[CrapsMyWay]

I don't like it....but Good Luck!