Take Bills against New England

louis · 11-12-2007, 10:28 AM

Bills have now won 4 games in a row. They are division rivals to the Patriots. This game is in Buffalo. The current spread of 15.5 points at Olympic is insane. There is someting called regression to the mean. It means that New England can not go on beating opponents on the road by 17 plus points, every game this season. Especially good teams. And in my opinion, the Bills are a good team.

The home field advantage in Buffalo is going to be worth more than 3; To the Bills this is their superbowl. To the Patriots, they are on their way to the superbowl whether they win this game or not. They already beat Buffalo once, they don't have to beat them again for tie breaking scenarios. Buffalo already has lost games and is not a threat to get home field advantage in the playoffs.

In summary, the Bills have more motivation to win, the Bills have more than the standard 3 point advantage, the Patriots winning of games by more than 17 points stopped with the Colts (a team that didn't look very good last night) and I suggest it will stop in Buffalo as well.

I am well aware the Bills running back is injured. Remember this is a team game; the blockers are still there for someone else. And don't forget what happened to Dallas when they came to Buffalo, 5 weeks ago.

louisvillekid · 11-12-2007, 10:38 AM

i hope alot of people think like you on this one and drive the spread down to 13-14, cause i'll be on the pats.

louis · 11-12-2007, 10:40 AM

Man, I will also consider taking the Pats if the spread drops 5 points without a good reason. Of course the Pats are a much better team. I like the Bills now because I'm get 15.5 points at least at Olympic. Soon, one of the books with Pats fans is going to have +16 or more, and I can load up some more. The sharp players usually bet first and my guess is they will either take the Bills or pass on this game. That is why I am buying at least some now. The line may change during the week depending on weather and injury status. It is hard to predict.

I also strongly suspect the total of 47 I see at bookmaker is too high. Since I am not a total expert, I won't analyse it but I suspect the total assumes good weather rather than an average of the probabilities of different types of weather. If there is any chance of precipitation for this game, you will see this number drop, and the spread on the game go down. A low total and bad weather in Buffalo, which is a possibility this time of year regardless of the current forecast, of course favors the underdog with +15.5 pts. in this game.

I've seen the Patriots play in bad weather, but their goal is to win the game, not win it by 16!

mgcolby · 11-12-2007, 12:35 PM

28-6 (2006)
35-7 (2005, in a blinding snow storm)
31-17 (2004)
31-0 (2003)
38-7 (2002)

Those are the scores from the last five games between NE and Buf in Buffalo. All NE wins.

NE is coming off of a bye, they are healthy and Shula just added more fuel to the fire.

The Pats win this game by 24+, I could actually see somthing like 48-3 as well. I like the Bills and have played them the last 4 weeks, but this week the Play is NE.

CrazyL · 11-12-2007, 12:47 PM

Hit the Bills hard, please.

louis · 11-12-2007, 01:20 PM

mgcolby, you should play the pats in a pleaser if you think they are going to win by 24+. A two team pleaser pays 7 to 1 at WSEX. You have to find another team, maybe the Colts? You could parlay Bills -21 and Colts -20.5, and win $700 for a $100 bet.

The bills, at this point in the season, are obviously better than they have been over the last 5 years. I think you have to handicap the Bills as they are right now, to the Pats as they are right now. You still don't think the linesmakers are giving the Pats the lines they deserve?

The truth is both Pats and Bills bettors have been making money the last 5 games this season.

By the way, the predicted temperature for this game in Buffalo is 38. Of course weather forecasts 6 days out are not that accurate, but this is something to watch. If it rains the current total of 47 (Bookmaker) is going to drop. (The totals of those games in your post 4 out of 5 are under 47 by the way).

The Pats are not going to take risks to beat the spread against a good defense, they just need to win the game. The Bills have a good defense. They are also not going to get themselves injured so they can cover this spread, either.

tblues2005 · 11-12-2007, 01:23 PM

I think New England will win this game by at least 21 points, unless there is bad weather then it may slow them down.

Macdad · 11-12-2007, 01:30 PM

Are we talking about this team again. Stay away-run-hide-or do whatever. Why is everyone so caught up in New England. I think your only choice is either take them or walk away from the game. We have talked about this team for 5 weeks now. Everyone is caught up on finding the week that New England doesn't hit. Why go broke!

louis · 11-12-2007, 01:42 PM

I wish there was some way to parlay the weather forecast with the game :-)

mgcolby · 11-12-2007, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by louis

mgcolby, you should play the pats in a pleaser if you think they are going to win by 24+. A two team pleaser pays 7 to 1 at WSEX. You have to find another team, maybe the Colts? You could parlay Bills -21 and Colts -20.5, and win $700 for a $100 bet.

The bills, at this point in the season, are obviously better than they have been over the last 5 years. I think you have to handicap the Bills as they are right now, to the Pats as they are right now. You still don't think the linesmakers are giving the Pats the lines they deserve?

I completely disagree with that. The 2004 Bills were better than this team. You also completely overlook the fact that the Pats are ridiculously better than they have ever been. The Bills can't score with any consistency. The Bills are a young scrappy team that is over achieving. They will be out of this game mid-way through the second quarter.

Quote:

Originally Posted by louis

The truth is both Pats and Bills bettors have been making money the last 5 games this season.

Well I lost money on the Pats last week and the Bills pushed for me yesterday. But yes as a whole both of these teams have done well ATS. Something has to give and I don't think it will be the Bills suddenly finding an offense.

Quote:

Originally Posted by louis

By the way, the predicted temperature for this game in Buffalo is 38. Of course weather forecasts 6 days out are not that accurate, but this is something to watch. If it rains the current total of 47 (Bookmaker) is going to drop. (The totals of those games in your post 4 out of 5 are under 47 by the way).

The Pats are not going to take risks to beat the spread against a good defense, they just need to win the game. The Bills have a good defense. They are also not going to get themselves injured so they can cover this spread, either.

Why would anyone ever bring up the weather in a game where both teams play in winter wonderlands? Weather will not be a factor in this game. The Pats will cover at least 38 of those points, if not more.

louis · 11-12-2007, 02:44 PM

I completely agree with you the Pats are a much better team. I just don't think it is going to be their strategy to win by 16 points or more. They have to stay healthy for games that mean more to them. However, this game does mean something to the Bills, who know they are not going to the superbowl this year. This is their superbowl. I see the Pats playing a conservative strategy, not passing all over the place runing up the score and risking interceptions which is one of the ways the Bills could win.

I absolutely believe bad weather is a factor in whether or not the spread is covered in the game. So far it is too early to tell what the weather will be, but it something to watch for.

Bad weather favors the under, as cold rain and/or snow results in more conservative strategy especially by the Patriots, more running and less passing, more slipping and sliding. Obviously if the game goes under, the team totals are less, and the spread is more likely to be covered, especially in games with high spreads (just ask sportsbook.com which did not like folks betting this correlation).

Bad weather also creates more turnovers, which is probably the only way the Bills are going to be able to win outright. Of course, the Patriots would have to be the ones turning it over, but the Bills did a pretty good job creating them against the Cowboys in their stadium.

In summary, the Pats are a much better team, but they will play a conservative strategy in that stadium, regardless of the weather. The Bills have a lot more motivation to win. They are quite likely to not win this game, but with 15.5 points (olympic), the Bills should not have much of a problem.

CrazyL · 11-12-2007, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by louis

It also creates more turnovers, which is probably the only way the Bills are going to be able to win outright.

Not only would they need 5 or more turnovers, they would also need to depend on NE being flagged to the tune of 140-150 yds again. And some big injuries wouldn't hurt either.

I'm glad the Bills have won a few in a row, and I hope big money starts coming in their way so I can take a stab at this one.

louis · 11-12-2007, 03:12 PM

Well, the 5 turnovers and penalties resulted in them losing by only 1 point to Dallas if you are talking about the Dallas game. The Bills had some luck in that game, and they also had some mistakes of their own, like to recovering an onside's kick. But they did their part to create those turnovers.

They certainly didn't need that many Dallas mistakes to cover the spread in that game. And they won't need that many NE mistakes either.

In this game, I think they cover the spread not by NE mistakes, but by NE playing a very conservative strategy, anyhow.

You guys have convinced me what I already know that in general NE is a much superior team to Buffalo; in fact they are the best team in the league right now. But that doesn't necessarily translate into a huge spread, especially against other division rivals with substantially more motivation to win on their home fields. Strategy and motivation in a game are big factors in the spread, not just a difference in power ratings adjusted based on the results of each of the current season's games.

If a lot of money does come out on the Bills, I'll take the Pats along with you. I'm only taking the Bills because they are getting an insane number of points, not because I think they are going to win.

Nobody else here at SBR taking the Bills and points?

The Baron · 11-12-2007, 03:22 PM

I think I'll take the Pats.

beaneaters · 11-12-2007, 03:36 PM

If NE had played the Indy game last week, maybe there'd be a letdown, but having come off a bye, and now the Shula stuff, I'll stick with the Pats. I think they play with a chip on their shoulder until someone knocks it off, and I don't see Buffalo as the team to do it. I think you make good points, but not enough for me to jump on board.

louis · 11-12-2007, 04:47 PM

Noone taking buffalo and the points? What would the line have to be for you guys to take Buffalo?