[Seattle Slew]

I meant 7-1 in their last 8 home games as an underdog dating back to the middle of last season, and, yes, the one loss was to NE. After checking, they actually are 8-1 in their last 9 home games as a home dog, and 8 straight wins as a home dog.

After losing to NE last year, Buffalo was an underdog later that season vs.
Jax (won outright)
SD (lost but covered)
Miami (this one might have been a pick or +1, won outright)

They were favored against Tennessee and lost.

This season, home dog vs.
Denver (lost but covered)
Jets (won outright)
Dallas (lost but covered)
Ravens (won outright)
Bengals (won outright)

All of which doesn't mean much, because looking back at those teams, there were some bad teams favored on the road, like the Jets, Cinci and Baltimore.

[quote=mgcolby;410521]If your numbers are correct "7-1", which I don't think they are based on the fact that they played 8 home games last season, but if it's one of those they are 7-1 in their last 8 home games, then you may want to check out last seasons result in Buffalo....

NE 28
Buf 6

[tblues2005]

I pick New England 38-10 in this game, Buffalo has no offense at all hardly, they could barely score 13 on a terrible Miami team, the Pats should win this one easily by half I think.

[louis]

Agree bills offense will only score about 14 in the game, however the defense and special teams will score as well. My best guess at a score is 27-17, New England wins, Bills cover
+15.5 spread, and under 47 wins. I may change this score prediction as time goes on, espeicially if they predict rain or snow, but I'm sticking to the Bills and Under.

[tblues2005]

I would for sure take the under if it is snowing there your right about that louis. Watch the weather forecast in that game!

[mgcolby]

Originally Posted by louis

Agree bills offense will only score about 14 in the game, however the defense and special teams will score as well. My best guess at a score is 27-17, New England wins, Bills cover
+15.5 spread, and under 47 wins. I may change this score prediction as time goes on, espeicially if they predict rain or snow, but I'm sticking to the Bills and Under.

Outside of Cleveland (Cribbs) and Chicago (Hester) it would not be wise to depend on ST's scoring to cover a bet. And you realize that NE's Punt and Kick team are both in the top 10 in return yards allowed. They also haven't allowed a TD on ST's this year after facing some of the best return teams in the league - Dallas, Cleveland, SD and Buffalo.

Again anything can happen on any given Sunday but you have yet to give one substantial reason to believe that the Pats will not cover this game. It's not your fault either, all of the traditional reasons for expecting a close game are out the window. Things such as "it's a division game and it's in Buffalo"- but the Pats have a history of blowing them out in Buffalo, even in the snow. None of it works here. So why fight it? Put your money on the team that is 8-1 ATS (ridiculous spreads at that) and would be 9-0 if not for some very horrible officiating that gave Indy at least a FG.

Get on board the money train brother.

[louis]

If you like NE, should take them now as the line is moving up because of the Lynch status.

I already have 1 unit on Bills +15.5; 1/2 unit on under 47.

Will wait and see before deciding on buying more or not.

[Redchevy]

Good luck Louis, I'm on NE big the other way. I can see a 30-35 point blowout on National TV. Belichick gave them the whole week off on 1 condition, they were back in pads, full contact, on Monday!! They're locked, loaded and ready!!! BOL!!!

[mv09]

I actually like the Bills in this one. They are a very good team. I had this game in a +13 point teaser at +30 last time and lost, but this is a different team. Even without Marshawn, im confident they can move the ball

Originally Posted by tblues2005

I pick New England 38-10 in this game, Buffalo has no offense at all hardly, they could barely score 13 on a terrible Miami team, the Pats should win this one easily by half I think.

In their defense, Losman got hurt in the 1st and it was Trent Edwards first playing action ever in the NFL vs arguably one of the greatest teams ever.

[louis]

NE is available for -15 at 5 dimes. If you like NE take it. This is the best line at a reputable place.

[buzzsawl]

Bills dont score and their D is weak. The spread is fine.

[louis]

I bought back some of my Bills, since 5 Dimes wants to offer NE 15 when the sharp line at Pinnacle and Matchbook is the equvialent of between 16 and 16.5. Besides, I want less on the game now that Lynch is out, but still expecting Bills to cover original spread of 15.5. If you can get Bills +16.5, thats still a good deal.

This line seems to be going up.

Under 47, depends a lot on the weather. In terms of game strategy, run/pass mix, I already have NE under 47 for 1/2 unit.

[dwaechte]

This line just jumped from -14.5 to -16 overnight at Pinny.

[Doc JS]

Originally Posted by mv09

I actually like the Bills in this one. They are a very good team.

The Bills are not a very good team. The Bills are an "average at best" team.

As pokernut pointed out earlier in this thread, the Bills have beat the Jets twice, the Dolphins, Bengals, and the Ravens. And what do all those teams have in common? If you answered: They all suck! You'd be right! The Bills have not beaten anyone who is going to sniff the playoffs this year.

You can't score 13 against the only winless team in the NFL and come in here and tell me the Bills are "a very good team".

The Patriots are going to get their points - at least mid-30's by my best guess. I don't see how the Bills score enough to cover the spread.

[dmiles1021]

stupid to bet on bills

[k2productions]

How can people not take NE. Granted they didn't cover the last game. It was Indy, on the road. But now they're back in their division playing a team that they normally kill. If I remember the most recent loss NE has @ Buff, was an opening day game it which Ty Law was dropped by NE only to get picked up by Buff that week. Buff beat NE with a couple of INTS from Law. Like I've been telling everyone who'll listen. Until NE CANNOT cover the double digit spreads, you gotta keep taking them. I saw somewhere online that the Books are thinking about a 20+ line when they play NYJ and MIA. 20+ pts. Now if the Books are thinking that high of a line, why wouldn't you take NE -16 now?? Add to the fact that Mercury Morris had to go and call NE out on the turn at his local course just added fuel to the fire. Would you piss off Jordan at the peak of his prime and give him billboard material?? HELL NO! Why would you want to piss off this team and give them more motivation. Buff and the rest of NE schedule should be giving every single 1972 Miami Dolphin duct tape, to shut them up and not create any more hype and motivation for this NE team to come out and destroy every single team.

And if you really think about it. NE could've easily covered the spread by kicking a last second field goal to cover. But they didn't. Must be some kind of respect for Indy. Why would you run it up on a Hall of Famer in Gibbs, but not take the oppurtunity to score additional points on Indy just in case. Who knows, maybe thats the only one NE will give to the books. I don't see NE slowing down, I'd take NE at the half, game and the over.

[Crutch]

this game is kinda scary

[pokernut9999]

Originally Posted by louis

Bills have now won 4 games in a row. They are division rivals to the Patriots. This game is in Buffalo. The current spread of 15.5 points at Olympic is insane. There is someting called regression to the mean. It means that New England can not go on beating opponents on the road by 17 plus points, every game this season. Especially good teams. And in my opinion, the Bills are a good team.

The home field advantage in Buffalo is going to be worth more than 3; To the Bills this is their superbowl. To the Patriots, they are on their way to the superbowl whether they win this game or not. They already beat Buffalo once, they don't have to beat them again for tie breaking scenarios. Buffalo already has lost games and is not a threat to get home field advantage in the playoffs.

In summary, the Bills have more motivation to win, the Bills have more than the standard 3 point advantage, the Patriots winning of games by more than 17 points stopped with the Colts (a team that didn't look very good last night) and I suggest it will stop in Buffalo as well.

I am well aware the Bills running back is injured. Remember this is a team game; the blockers are still there for someone else. And don't forget what happened to Dallas when they came to Buffalo, 5 weeks ago.

There is always Philly this week.

[louis]

I made a mistake on this one, obviously. Are you going to bet NE again? Congratulations on last night.

[pokernut9999]

yep