[louis]

This one is easy. The Bills have won 3 straight, beating Baltimore by 5, Jets by 10, and last weekend Cincy by 12. Now they are going to Miami. By the way, the game before baltimore they lost to Dallas by 1.

Noone doubts Bills are a better team than the Dolphins, but oh yea the dolphins have home field advantage. Expect those home fans to be as excited about their losing team as the fans are about their tans and magazines they brought to the game to keep themselves entertained.

With the weather in the 70's, neither team is going to like playing much; the dolphins a bit more use to this abuse so a couple extra points in the line - but that's it. They don't get the 3 extra points that teams like Indianapolis do, or New England in the winter when every eye is glued and every bit of adreneline is focused towards the game.

The miami home field advantage is lower than most teams get. 1 or 2 points at most. Have any of you been to that stadium? At least 1/3 of the Bills fans actually live in Florida. They will be there.

Expect the bills to win easily.

The line should be -6 to -7. -2.5 is a gift in this game.

The total is interesting. The total suggest the teams are going to score more than I think they will, but i'll leave it alone. There is a chance for a special team play, which may not be as predictable as needed to bet on this line.

[laxdjock]

It's up to -4 at my book...decisions decisions. I think MIA blows. I've (unfortunately) watched every game, and they are starting Lemon (Beck should be the choice...but that is another discussion).

I'm putting a unit down on BUF....I'm a little hesitant since MIA tends to screw me, but I think 'home field' is a non-issue, and MIA is still free-falling with a crappy QB.

In for BUF -4 1.5 units.

[swampdog]

Originally Posted by laxdjock

It's up to -4 at my book...decisions decisions. I think MIA blows. I've (unfortunately) watched every game, and they are starting Lemon (Beck should be the choice...but that is another discussion).

I'm putting a unit down on BUF....I'm a little hesitant since MIA tends to screw me, but I think 'home field' is a non-issue, and MIA is still free-falling with a crappy QB.

In for BUF -4 1.5 units.

At the risk of sounding like a flip flopper, Although Buff is a good bet a -3, I don't like them at -4. Miami has underachieved on Defense in years past only to pick it up at the end of the year and Buff's D isn't spectacular as well. They're on a nice win streak but they haven't played anyone note worthy except the Cowboys. But that loss to Dal might say more about Dal than Buff.

[regularguy]

I like the Bills here.

Don't fret too much about the stats. The Bills had a tough start. That loss to the Broncos was ugly, then they had to go on the road to Pittsburgh and New England. Since then, they have turned it around just a bit. They have won three in a row (albiet over bad teams) since their bye week.

The key to me, though, is that Losman has started to play quite well at QB for the Bills (24 for 34 for 295 yards and a TD against the Bengals Sunday). The week before, he put together two nice drives in the 4th quarter to get the win over the Jets.

At Miami, Lemon ... well ... he's having trouble. This may well be his last start for a while.

Miami's defense is bad -- the worst in NFL in the important category: points given up per game. I love that given that I may bet on the favorite here.

Sure, the Bills haven't played anyone good in the last 3 weeks. But that's OK. It's been a perfect warmup for their game against the lowly Dolphins. The Bills beat the Jets by 10 (away), and the Bengals by 12 (at home). I say, they'll continue the trend, and beat the Fins by 14+ this week.

[Seattle Slew]

Bills have been great ATS this season (6-2) and late last season (6-2 ATS last 8 games), but most of those were as underdogs. I don't like them as a road favorite although I do think they win this game but not in a blowout. Some teams just always play close games, and Buffalo is one of those teams.

[durito]

Home teams tend to do poorly off buys, otherwise i'd be big on Miami here.

Teams that have lost 8 in a row are 24-2-1 ATS as a home dog in division games.

The fact that Buffalo has won and covered 3 in a row is a good sign to bet against them, especially as a road favorite.

I don't know where you guys are getting 4, it's moving (at least the juice) the other way offshore. Mostly +3 -120 now

[louis]

My pick, starting this thread, was when buffalo was -2.5. I'll take them -3 +100.

I would pass at -4.

The line does make a diffference.

And although I like them, there are many ways to bet them: the first half, quarters, or waiting until the second half. Plus money lines for all of these.

[imgv94]

Dolphins have lost by three points 4 teams this season.

This is the best chance Miami has had all season to win a game, off a bye versus a team that is NOT in the top 20 in any offense or defense category.

Bills offense has been abysmal this season on the road averaging 7.6 points per game.

If Miami loses this one they might as well give up on the season.

[Crutch]

I would go with Buffalo

[louis]

Division rivals do well as home dogs, especially when they have lost a lot of games against the spread. And especially when they play on Monday night and want to gain back respect they have lost all season. But I don't see it in this game; Any one who has been to Miami when the team is losing will know there is not much home field advantage. And there really is a lot of bills fans living in Florida. I have been to that stadium and at least 25% percent of the fans were routing for the opponent, 50% didn't care, and 25% were for the dolphins. I don't think the game will be easy for buffalo, but I think they can and will beat a -2.5 spread. if the spread jumps over -3 then i am not betting it.

[ws1975]

Bills will win comfortably.

[RageWizard]

I would like to caution you that Buffalo -3 is one leg of my parlay wager (Detroit +1 is the other) and I'm really good at losing this year.

[laxdjock]

Rage.....your streak ends here!....and not just because I have BUF -4, DET +1 / -1, and a few other things.

People are underestimating the suckitude of Cleo Lemon. The 'fins are down right horrid on offense, and he is just going to enhance the ineptitude. BUF should win by 10.

[mgcolby]

I like Buffalo in this game. But, with that said, Miami will win 1 game this season, IMO and it will be against a team like the Bills. A young team getting over filled with confidence and taking the "lowly" Dolphins to lightly on the road.

Again, I am not saying they will beat the Bills, but if/when they do win a game it will be against a team like the Bills. Or maybe they will beat the lowly Jets, who knows.

[BigBollocks]

GL guys. Miami + the points is my biggest NFL play of the weekend. I really think this is a tremendous matchup for the Dolphins, and think that they win the game outright. However, I'll sleep a little easier Sunday night knowing some good guys here at least won if I happen to lose...

[imgv94]

I have a strong feeling the margin of victory in this game is going to be three points.

20-17
17-14
13-10

[theshark]

i think miami pours it on buffalo and gets there first win of the season....this is easy playing at home....im thinking about making this my big play for sunday....dolphins roll....theshark

[BuddyBear]

Step right up if you want to bet Buffalo.....

[HAPPY BOY]

I am a huge Dolphin fan, They suck aweful donkey dick, that said, Buffalo is gonna lose outright. I wish the Fins would loose to get the #1 overall pick. Buffalo is hurt. Cam Cameron (the moron) refused to start Beck Miami's rookie QB and opted to start Cleo Lemon. Cameron is desperate for 1 win. He even roatated the Defense. I willl place a small wager on my Fins and take the points thank you.

[jon13009]

1:00 p.m. ET
Buffalo Bills -3.0 @ Miami Dolphins
50% W/L 0% W/L

Str Schd. Buffalo Bills 36.69 Miami Dolphins 67.34

Buffalo Bills O(31) RO(18) PO(29)
Miami Dolphins D(23) RD(31) PD(6)

Miami Dolphins O(18) RO(12) PO(18)
Buffalo Bills D(29) RD(19) PD(29)

Bye week: Buffalo Bills 6 Miami Dolphins 9

Miami off the bye, Buffalo will have to run successfully to win, and Miami's offense has the potential to break through Buffalo's relatively weak D. Miami will be motivated at home and after a brutal schedule is looking forward to BUF. Public 83% on BUF.

This is a chance for Miami to get their first win, and the Bills are always a question away from home. BUF might be looking ahead to NE next week, and if the breaks go MIA's way, they will keep it close.

I actually like Miami and the points here (minor value).

GL.

[imgv94]

Dolphins are a very good play cause they have a very good chance of winning this game and you get three points for insurance.

[laxdjock]

Zach Thomas.....OUT!

Originally Posted by ESPN.COM

It will be the fourth game Thomas has missed this season, including two in September because of a concussion. He participated in full-contact drills Thursday but was held out of practice Friday and ruled out for the game.

"That's the recommendation of our medical staff," coach Cam Cameron said. "He had a good practice yesterday, but as we're finding out in these situations, one day isn't always indicative of the next day. ... He came in this morning and things were not quite the same."

Thomas hasn't played since he suffered whiplash in a car accident driving home from the Dolphins' loss to New England on Oct. 21.

The seven-time Pro Bowl linebacker has been slowed by migraines and concussions in the past, but Sunday's game will be only the 17th he has missed in a 12-year career.

Injuries have been a big factor in the Dolphins' 0-8 start, with the defense particularly hard-hit.

In Thomas' absence, the Dolphins will again move Channing Crowder from outside linebacker to the middle, and Derrick Pope will again start on the outside.

"I grew up a Zach Thomas fan," Pope said. "You just say his name and it brings chills. ... So to see him going through this right now, it hurts. But that's where I come in and try to make sure the defense doesn't skip a beat."

Copyright 2007 by The Associated Press

[louis]

If you take Miami, line is only +2.5 now. Looks like the public has been taking Miami this week.

[roasthawg]

i got the bills 17-13.

[ntgarrett]

I love Buffalo but consider this:

BUFFALO(-2.5) at MIAMI
Buffalo is 1-5-1 ATS as Division road favs since 1999
Miami 10-32 under in home games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992
Any winless team of 0-4 or worse coming off a bye 17-3 ats since 1990

Looks like Miami and maybe the under would be the play here.

[JAHgger4noz]

Originally Posted by durito

Home teams tend to do poorly off buys, otherwise i'd be big on Miami here.

Teams that have lost 8 in a row are 24-2-1 ATS as a home dog in division games.

The fact that Buffalo has won and covered 3 in a row is a good sign to bet against them, especially as a road favorite.

I don't know where you guys are getting 4, it's moving (at least the juice) the other way offshore. Mostly +3 -120 now

Really???!! Hrmmmm...this year Home teams off of byes are 6-4 ATS ( 7-3 SU). Not great but I wouldnt say that is doing poorly either. Home dogs coming off a bye are 2-1 ATS (winning SU in those 2 games)

Originally Posted by louis

Division rivals do well as home dogs, especially when they have lost a lot of games against the spread. And especially when they play on Monday night and want to gain back respect they have lost all season. But I don't see it in this game; Any one who has been to Miami when the team is losing will know there is not much home field advantage. And there really is a lot of bills fans living in Florida. I have been to that stadium and at least 25% percent of the fans were routing for the opponent, 50% didn't care, and 25% were for the dolphins. I don't think the game will be easy for buffalo, but I think they can and will beat a -2.5 spread. if the spread jumps over -3 then i am not betting it.

Let's take a look at this one now>Division rivals do well as Home dogs?
As Home Dogs they are 9-10-1 ATS this year.
I like them as Road Dogs this year where they are 15-7-3 (13 of those 15 were SU wins)
Now those Dogs that didnt cover, went up against such teams as NE, Jax, SD, Sea, Pitts...all difficult teams to beat in their backyard, never mind trying to cover the spread. Most of these dogs were 6+.
GL on those playing the Buff/ Mia game. There's quite alot of Division games tomorrow. 10 in all. And quite a lot of Road dogs to choose from. Seattle looks like the biggest mis-match but they also carry the biggest spread in all the Division games vs SF.

[jon13009]

Originally Posted by louis

If you take Miami, line is only +2.5 now. Looks like the public has been taking Miami this week.

I see 81% on Buffalo, with little change throughout the week.

Source:
http://www.thespread.com/nfl-footbal...-betting-chart

[louis]

That's an interesting site, but it has to only be taking into acount some of the sportsbooks out there, otherwise how do we explain the drop in line? Buffalo started the week at -3 -115 and they are at -2 -110 at some books now. This seems like Miami action to me. I just think Miami has more of a nationwide fan base than the small market superbowl losing Bills. That site is interesting, though. I didn't know abou it.

My pick is still the Bills for this game, especially at -2 -110.

If you do want to take Miami, even though I disagree with this opinion, I would do it with a 6 point teaser. You'll get the "3" and "7".

[Dark Horse]

I've been playing on the Bills quite a bit this season, but passing this time. Miami held the Giants close, and is coming off a bye. Bills could come in very uninspired against a recharged Dolphins team.

[CrazyLou]

Bills completed good pass down field to get into fg range, it appeared the WR stepped out leaving 1 second on the clock, but the second ran off after he stepped out.. haha.

They are playing in Miami though so no surprise.

[laxdjock]

That was a BS call. If BUF can come out and score a TD in the 2nd half, that puts them back on pace (push for me, but I'd take that right now!)

[durito]

Originally Posted by JAHgger4noz

Really???!! Hrmmmm...this year Home teams off of byes are 6-4 ATS ( 7-3 SU). Not great but I wouldnt say that is doing poorly either. Home dogs coming off a bye are 2-1 ATS (winning SU in those 2 games)

That's great. But, my data goes back to 1978 (obviously byes didnt start till 1990. Long term trends are much more signigigant than short term trends. In doing further research though I found that winless teams are actually excellent bets at home after byes. In addition to other angles that made Miami a pretty good play here IMO.

[laxdjock]

10-10. I'm at -4....*grumbles* I really need BUF to cause a TO or have a long drive with a Lynch TD or Losman pass.....hmm...

[louis]

There are going to be a lot of pushes here, but those who got the Bills today at -2.5, or took the teaser on Miami at +2.5 today, are looking good.

[laxdjock]

Darn..I knew -4 was going to bite me. Eh....1.5 units down the drain....I had it up against my 2.2 GB and a 1 unit teaser, so it is pretty much a wash.